Interim Sen. Darline Graham Nordone and Rep. Ralph Norman advanced after neither won a majority in the Aug. 11 special primary. Rep. Russell Fry, who finished third, endorsed Graham Nordone for the runoff that will choose the Republican nominee to replace the late Lindsey Graham on November's ballot.
Two markets, one question
SC Republican primary
widest venue gap 0.5pp
- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
SC Republican primary. Darline Graham Nordone (R): Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 90%; Ralph Norman (R): Polymarket 11%, Kalshi 11%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
Money-weighted: Darline Graham Nordone 89% · Ralph Norman 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | Darline Graham Nordone · Polymarket | Darline Graham Nordone · Kalshi | Ralph Norman · Polymarket | Ralph Norman · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 67% | 73% | 25% | 27% |
| 6 days ago | 77% | 79% | 24% | 22% |
| 5 days ago | 82% | 82% | 18% | 17% |
| 4 days ago | 92% | 87% | 7.5% | 14% |
| 3 days ago | 87% | 87% | 13% | 14% |
| 2 days ago | 86% | 87% | 14% | 14% |
| yesterday | 90% | 90% | 9.5% | 11% |
| today | 89% | 90% | 11% | 11% |
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.