For the first time in 32 years, Wyoming has open races for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House at once. Trump endorsed Megan Degenfelder for governor and Rep. Harriet Hageman for Senate; nine Republicans are competing to replace Hageman in the House. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
Two markets, one question
WY Republican primary
widest venue gap 1.3pp
- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
WY Republican primary. Eric Barlow (R): Polymarket 81%, Kalshi 80%; Megan Degenfelder (R): Polymarket 18%, Kalshi 19%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
Money-weighted: Eric Barlow 80% · Megan Degenfelder 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | Eric Barlow · Polymarket | Eric Barlow · Kalshi | Megan Degenfelder · Polymarket | Megan Degenfelder · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 69% | 71% | 30% | 27% |
| 6 days ago | 72% | 77% | 28% | 15% |
| 5 days ago | 79% | 80% | 21% | 22% |
| 4 days ago | 78% | 78% | 22% | 24% |
| 3 days ago | 79% | 81% | 21% | 20% |
| 2 days ago | 83% | 79% | 15% | 17% |
| yesterday | 81% | 80% | 17% | 18% |
| today | 81% | 80% | 18% | 19% |
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.