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Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz

Political Guyentist · August 5, 20261 min read

AP

The vessel reported damage off Oman while negotiators worked on a new arrangement for commercial shipping through the strait.

The chokepointMap

One strait, a quarter of the world's seaborne oil

A cargo ship was hit somewhere in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is the only sea exit from the Persian Gulf, which is why one damaged ship is a story about everybody's energy supply.

A globe centred on the Strait of Hormuz, showing the strait as the only sea exit from the Persian Gulf and the approximate area in which a cargo ship was reported struck. Places marked: Strait of Hormuz; Cargo ship struck (approximate, within about 70 km); Muscat. Drawn across the map: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — standing feature of the geography. Figures: Oil through Hormuz in 2025, 20m barrels a day; of global seaborne oil trade, 25%; of global LNG trade, 19%; barrels a day the alternative pipelines could take, 3.5m–5.5m.

20m barrels a dayOil through Hormuz in 2025
25%of global seaborne oil trade
19%of global LNG trade
3.5m–5.5mbarrels a day the alternative pipelines could takeIEA estimate. Less than a third of what the strait carries.

Route through the geographyRing = approximate positionAll routes here are schematic

Coastlines: Natural Earth 1:110m. The strike ring is an uncertainty area, not a position.
What this map shows, as data
Places marked on the map
PlaceRolePositionWhat the reporting saysSource
Strait of HormuzChokepoint26.60°N, 56.50°EAbout 20 million barrels of oil a day passed through in 2025 — roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade.Wikidata Q79883, Strait of Hormuz
Cargo ship struckReported struck26.60°N, 56.50°E — approximate, within about 70 kmA cargo ship reported being hit by an unknown projectile. UKMTO did not identify the vessel, its flag or its cargo. No source identified who fired.AP: Iran and Oman make progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
MuscatPlace23.59°N, 58.38°EOman and Iran reported progress on a new arrangement for shipping through the strait; the terms were unsettled.Natural Earth (public domain)
Routes and movements drawn on the map
DrawnKindStatusWhat the reporting saysSource
Traffic through the Strait of HormuzRouteStanding feature of the geographyEverything leaving the Persian Gulf by sea passes the strait. The Gulf has no other sea exit. Route is schematic: the reporting does not give an alignment.Wikidata Q79883, Strait of Hormuz
Figures shown beside the map
FigureValueDetailSource
Oil through Hormuz in 202520m barrels a dayIEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet
of global seaborne oil trade25%IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet
of global LNG trade19%IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet
barrels a day the alternative pipelines could take3.5m–5.5mIEA estimate. Less than a third of what the strait carries.IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet

Where every coordinate came from

  • Coordinates: Wikidata Q79883 (Strait of Hormuz), 26.60°N 56.50°E.
  • Position not published. The reporting places the strike only “in the Strait of Hormuz off Oman”, so it is drawn as a 70 km uncertainty ring on the strait's published centre rather than as a pin.
  • Coordinates: Natural Earth 1:10m populated places, Admin-0 capital “Muscat”.
  • Schematic. Drawn as two great-circle segments between open water in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through the strait's published centre. Not a traffic-separation-scheme alignment.

Sources: AP: Iran and Oman make progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz · IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet · Wikidata Q79883, Strait of Hormuz · Natural Earth (public domain)

Figure 1Chart

Pipelines could take about a quarter of what Hormuz carries

One damaged ship does not move global supply. The reason the strait matters is that there is nowhere else to put the oil.

Pipelines could take about a quarter of what Hormuz carriesTwo bars comparing about 20 million barrels of oil a day passing through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 with the 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day the International Energy Agency estimates alternative pipelines could redirect. A reference line at 3.5 is labelled "IEA's low estimate". At Through Hormuz, 2025, a note reads "About a quarter of all seaborne oil trade".
The numbers
Pipelines could take about a quarter of what Hormuz carries
Millions of barrels a dayCrude oilNote
Through Hormuz, 202520roughly 25% of seaborne oil trade
Pipelines could redirect5.5IEA high estimate; 3.5 low

Iran and Oman reported progress on safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes, but the terms remained unsettled. AP reported that one version would use an Iranian-controlled inbound route and an Omani-controlled outbound route with security fees; a U.S. official rejected any arrangement requiring Iranian approval or charges. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come “today or tomorrow.”