Political Guyentist

Latest edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 2.0pp apart. The books do not name different leaders in any statewide race.

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket88.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi84.5%clearly ahead

No clear movePolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi -1.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket50.5%a coin flip
Kalshi48.5%a coin flip

Toward the DemocratsPolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

10 Senate races, then 12 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

12 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: North Carolina Senate, Georgia Senate, Nebraska Senate, New Hampshire Senate, Iowa governor, Alaska governor, Michigan governor, Arizona governor, Texas governor, New York governor, Pennsylvania governor, Florida governor.

Senate

  1. Alaska SenateA sitting Republican senator is defending this seatMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Mary Peltola ahead.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 65.5%Dan Sullivan 34.5%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 64.5%Dan Sullivan 36.0%

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    65.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $240K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    63.0% / 66.0%
    Volume
    75.2K contracts
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    34.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $136K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    36.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    35.0% / 37.0%
    Volume
    71.7K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Georgia SenateJon OssoffMike CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jon Ossoff ahead.Polymarket: Jon Ossoff 93.5%Mike Collins 6.4%Kalshi: Jon Ossoff 92.6%Mike Collins 7.8%

    Jon Ossoff

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jon Ossoff personally.

    Polymarket
    93.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $48.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    92.6%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.8pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    92.2% / 93.0%
    Volume
    349K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    6.4%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.6pp across that span
    Volume
    $74.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    7.8%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.8pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    7.5% / 8.0%
    Volume
    816K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningAshley HinsonJosh TurekParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Ashley Hinson ahead.Polymarket: Ashley Hinson 60.5%Josh Turek 39.5%Kalshi: Ashley Hinson 59.5%Josh Turek 40.5%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ashley Hinson personally.

    Polymarket
    60.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $116K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    59.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    982K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Turek personally.

    Polymarket
    39.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $108K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    40.0% / 41.0%
    Volume
    1.1M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Maine SenateDemocrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrewTroy JacksonSusan CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Troy Jackson ahead.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 30.5%Kalshi: Troy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 31.5%

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Troy Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $734K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    69.0% / 70.0%
    Volume
    1.9M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Susan Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    30.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $495K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    31.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    31.0% / 32.0%
    Volume
    2.6M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Michigan SenateAbdul El-SayedMike RogersParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 64.5%Mike Rogers 35.5%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 63.5%Mike Rogers 36.5%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Abdul El-Sayed personally.

    Polymarket
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $341K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    63.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    63.0% / 64.0%
    Volume
    1.2M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Rogers personally.

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $281K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    36.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    36.0% / 37.0%
    Volume
    1.7M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Nebraska SenatePete RickettsDan OsbornCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Pete Ricketts ahead.Polymarket: Pete Ricketts 70.0%Dan Osborn 29.5%Kalshi: Pete Ricketts 69.5%Dan Osborn 31.0%

    Pete Ricketts

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Pete Ricketts personally.

    Polymarket
    70.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $91.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    69.0% / 70.0%
    Volume
    283K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Osborn

    Independent · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    29.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $27.1K
    Question
    Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    31.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    30.0% / 32.0%
    Volume
    375K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. New Hampshire SenateChris PappasJohn E. SununuParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Chris Pappas ahead.Polymarket: Chris Pappas 84.5%John E. Sununu 16.0%Kalshi: Chris Pappas 83.5%John E. Sununu 16.5%

    Chris Pappas

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Chris Pappas personally.

    The snapshot identifies Chris Pappas as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    84.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $58.9K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    83.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    83.0% / 84.0%
    Volume
    84.7K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: 6 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Chris Pappas; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Chris Pappas
      Kalshi
      94.8%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.6pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      94.1% / 95.5%
      Volume
      109K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Karishma Manzur
      Kalshi
      5.8%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.8pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      5.4% / 6.3%
      Volume
      137K contracts
      Question
      Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Maggie Goodlander
      Kalshi
      0.3%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.5%
      Volume
      1.4K contracts
      Question
      Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Annie Kuster
      Kalshi
      0.2%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.7pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.4%
      Volume
      622 contracts
      Question
      Will Annie Kuster be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    5. Jared Sullivan
      Kalshi
      0.2%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.4%
      Volume
      3 contracts
      Question
      Will Jared Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    6. Stefany Shaheen
      Kalshi
      0.2%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.4%
      Volume
      1.3K contracts
      Question
      Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source

    John E. Sununu

    Republican · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John E. Sununu personally.

    The snapshot identifies John E. Sununu as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    16.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +6.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $27.3K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    16.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +6.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    16.0% / 17.0%
    Volume
    154K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Republican Senate primary: 4 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath John E. Sununu; it is not a second governor race.

    1. John E. Sununu
      Kalshi
      97.8%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; +0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      97.1% / 98.4%
      Volume
      15.9K contracts
      Question
      Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Scott Brown
      Kalshi
      2.1%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      1.5% / 2.8%
      Volume
      30.1K contracts
      Question
      Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Dan Innis
      Kalshi
      0.9%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.8%
      Volume
      37 contracts
      Question
      Will Dan Innis be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Chris Sununu
      Kalshi
      0.8%
      Recorded span
      3 samples / 2 intervals; -1.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.6%
      Volume
      22.7K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
  8. North Carolina SenateRoy CooperMichael WhatleyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Roy Cooper ahead.Polymarket: Roy Cooper 92.0%Michael Whatley 8.0%Kalshi: Roy Cooper 91.1%Michael Whatley 8.8%

    Roy Cooper

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Roy Cooper personally.

    Polymarket
    92.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $40.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    91.1%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    91.1% / 91.2%
    Volume
    1.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Michael Whatley

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Michael Whatley personally.

    Polymarket
    8.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $59.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.8%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    8.5% / 9.2%
    Volume
    461K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio SenateA special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate termSherrod BrownJon HustedParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues report matching prices.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 54.5%Jon Husted 45.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 54.5%Jon Husted 45.5%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Sherrod Brown personally.

    Polymarket
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $110K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    54.0% / 55.0%
    Volume
    1.0M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Jon Husted personally.

    Polymarket
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $78.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    45.0% / 46.0%
    Volume
    1.5M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Texas SenateKen PaxtonJames TalaricoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name James Talarico ahead.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 50.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 49.5%James Talarico 50.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ken Paxton personally.

    Polymarket
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $527K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    5.7M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not James Talarico personally.

    Polymarket
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $446K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    4.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Alaska governorBernadette WilsonTom BegichCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Bernadette Wilson ahead.Polymarket: Bernadette Wilson 35.5%Tom Begich 1.3%Kalshi: Bernadette Wilson 35.5%Tom Begich 0.7%

    Bernadette Wilson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $167K
    Question
    Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    35.0% / 36.0%
    Volume
    37.7K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Begich

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    1.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -17pp across that span
    Volume
    $158K
    Question
    Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    0.7%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -18pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    0.2% / 1.1%
    Volume
    227K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Arizona governorKatie HobbsAndy BiggsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Katie Hobbs ahead.Polymarket: Katie Hobbs 87.5%Andy Biggs 12.5%Kalshi: Katie Hobbs 87.0%Andy Biggs 14.0%

    Katie Hobbs

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Katie Hobbs personally.

    Polymarket
    87.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $31.1K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    87.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    86.0% / 88.0%
    Volume
    304K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Andy Biggs

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Andy Biggs personally.

    Polymarket
    12.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $36.2K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    14.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    13.0% / 15.0%
    Volume
    235K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Florida governorByron DonaldsDavid JollyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Byron Donalds ahead.Polymarket: Byron Donalds 81.0%David Jolly 19.5%Kalshi: Byron Donalds 81.5%David Jolly 19.5%

    Byron Donalds

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Byron Donalds personally.

    Polymarket
    81.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $26.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    81.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    81.0% / 82.0%
    Volume
    475K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    David Jolly

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not David Jolly personally.

    Polymarket
    19.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $30.9K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    19.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    19.0% / 20.0%
    Volume
    247K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Georgia governorGeorgia's governor's office is openKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.0%Rick Jackson 39.5%Kalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.0%Rick Jackson 41.5%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Keisha Lance Bottoms personally.

    Polymarket
    59.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $32.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    58.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    273K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Rick Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    39.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $36.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    363K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Iowa governorRob SandZach LahnParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Rob Sand ahead.Polymarket: Rob Sand 75.5%Zach Lahn 24.5%Kalshi: Rob Sand 74.5%Zach Lahn 26.5%

    Rob Sand

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Rob Sand personally.

    Polymarket
    75.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $31.1K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    74.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    74.0% / 75.0%
    Volume
    251K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Zach Lahn

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Zach Lahn personally.

    Polymarket
    24.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $43.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    26.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    26.0% / 27.0%
    Volume
    287K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Michigan governorJocelyn BensonJohn JamesParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jocelyn Benson ahead.Polymarket: Jocelyn Benson 90.5%John James 8.0%Kalshi: Jocelyn Benson 88.0%John James 14.5%

    Jocelyn Benson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jocelyn Benson personally.

    Polymarket
    90.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $48.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    88.0%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 89.0%
    Volume
    73.1K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    John James

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John James personally.

    Polymarket
    8.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $153K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    14.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    13.0% / 16.0%
    Volume
    124K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. Nevada governorNevada's Republican governor is defending his jobJoe LombardoAaron FordParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Joe Lombardo ahead.Polymarket: Joe Lombardo 61.5%Aaron Ford 39.5%Kalshi: Joe Lombardo 59.5%Aaron Ford 41.0%

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Joe Lombardo personally.

    Polymarket
    61.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $57.2K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    59.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    226K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Aaron Ford personally.

    Polymarket
    39.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $23.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    40.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    482K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  8. New York governorKathy HochulBruce BlakemanParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Kathy Hochul ahead.Polymarket: Kathy Hochul 94.5%Bruce Blakeman 5.5%Kalshi: Kathy Hochul 94.0%Bruce Blakeman 7.1%

    Kathy Hochul

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Kathy Hochul personally.

    Polymarket
    94.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $49.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    94.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.7pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    94.0% / 94.1%
    Volume
    271K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Bruce Blakeman

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Bruce Blakeman personally.

    Polymarket
    5.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $55.3K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    7.1%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.9pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    6.5% / 7.7%
    Volume
    705K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio governorOhio is choosing a new governorAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Amy Acton ahead.Polymarket: Amy Acton 53.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 46.5%Kalshi: Amy Acton 57.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 42.5%

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Amy Acton personally.

    Polymarket
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $79.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    57.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    57.0% / 58.0%
    Volume
    696K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Vivek Ramaswamy personally.

    Polymarket
    46.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $96.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    42.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    42.0% / 43.0%
    Volume
    732K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Pennsylvania governorJosh ShapiroStacy GarrityParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Josh Shapiro ahead.Polymarket: Josh Shapiro 95.5%Stacy Garrity 2.3%Kalshi: Josh Shapiro 97.2%Stacy Garrity 3.1%

    Josh Shapiro

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Shapiro personally.

    Polymarket
    95.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $7.5K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    97.2%
    Recorded span
    4 samples / 3 intervals; +0.9pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    96.7% / 97.7%
    Volume
    99.1K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Stacy Garrity

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Stacy Garrity personally.

    Polymarket
    2.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.3pp across that span
    Volume
    $41.6K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    3.1%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    2.5% / 3.7%
    Volume
    391K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  11. Texas governorGreg AbbottGina HinojosaParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Greg Abbott ahead.Polymarket: Greg Abbott 82.8%Gina Hinojosa 16.5%Kalshi: Greg Abbott 84.5%Gina Hinojosa 15.0%

    Greg Abbott

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Greg Abbott personally.

    Polymarket
    82.8%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.7pp across that span
    Volume
    $38.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    84.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    84.0% / 85.0%
    Volume
    159K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Gina Hinojosa

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Gina Hinojosa personally.

    Polymarket
    16.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $50.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    15.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    14.0% / 16.0%
    Volume
    580K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  12. Wisconsin governorAn open governorshipDavid CrowleyTom TiffanyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name David Crowley ahead.Polymarket: David Crowley 81.5%Tom Tiffany 19.5%Kalshi: David Crowley 79.5%Tom Tiffany 21.5%

    David Crowley

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not David Crowley personally.

    Polymarket
    81.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $274K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    79.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    79.0% / 80.0%
    Volume
    443K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Tiffany

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Tom Tiffany personally.

    Polymarket
    19.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $243K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    21.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    21.0% / 22.0%
    Volume
    463K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

Comparable with the 2026-08-25 edition — the first pair this desk can subtract.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 88.5%Kalshi 84.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 50.5%Kalshi 48.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp. Both books clear the direction threshold.

  3. Disputed leaders

    The two books name the same leader in every race on this board.

  4. Michigan governor

    John James has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 6.5pp.

    Polymarket 8.0%Kalshi 14.5%

Cross-venue coverage

Every race on this board is priced by both books.

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 22 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.