Cook Political Report now projects Republicans will lose the House, five weeks before Election Day

2026 midterms

Political Guyentist · September 27, 20261 min read

Markets, not polling

Roy Cooper 94.58%▲1.8Whatley 5.97%

Cook, a nonpartisan forecaster, now makes this call, and forecasters say they see no sign that Democrats' gains are a polling 'sugar high,' because several separate measures point the same way.

The Senate mapDemocrats need to hold all their own Senate seats and flip 4 Republican seats; the Washington Post now calls that path feasible.2 details

Democrats need to hold all their own Senate seats and flip 4 Republican seats; the Washington Post now calls that path feasible.
CNN reports Republicans fear 2 key Senate races are slipping away, in North Carolina and Georgia.

What we’re less sure of5 of 7 claims

Medium
Cook Political Report now projects Republicans will lose the House.
This is a forecast attributed to Cook Political Report. Axios, the Washington Times (Erin Covey: a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats) and Ground News report Cook's shift of 15 races, which leaves 208 seats favoring Democrats, 205 favoring Republicans and 22 Toss Ups. 'Projects Republicans will lose' is
Low
Cook is the latest nonpartisan forecaster to predict Republicans will lose the House.
The story names no earlier forecaster that made the same call, and no listed source documents a prior nonpartisan House-loss projection. This is an unsourced sweeping claim by the desk.
Medium
Forecasters say they see no sign that Democrats' gains are a polling 'sugar high,' because several separate measures point the same way.
The story attributes this to forecasters, per The Hill. Independent measures back it: generic-ballot averages from Silver Bulletin (D+6.6), NBC (D+9) and Marist (a 12-point lead), plus special-election overperformance reported by POLITICO, Reuters and NPR.
Medium
The Washington Post now calls Democrats' path to a Senate majority feasible.
This is an interpretation attributed to the Washington Post, whose September 26 pieces are headlined 'Democratic Senate is becoming more likely' and 'Democrats now have easier paths to flipping the Senate.' 'Feasible' is the desk's paraphrase.
Medium
CNN reports Republicans fear 2 key Senate races, in North Carolina and Georgia, are slipping away.
This is attributed to CNN. Other reports corroborate it: ABC reports operatives saying the two races may be slipping, TIME and Yahoo report the NRSC priority list omits both states, and Semafor/AdImpact report Old North Action cancelled $6.5M in NC ad reservations.