US 10-year Treasury yield nears 5.2%, above what Germany, France, Canada, Greece and Estonia pay to borrow

Political Guyentist · September 27, 20261 min read

Estonia pays 3.6% to borrow, vs. nearly 5.2% for the US. The Atlantic's David Frum argues the Iran war, inflation and pandemic debt hit every borrower, so the gap must come from US choices like the unpaid-for 2017 tax cut.

The debt and the marketsUS debt was $14.3 trillion in April 2011, and $23.2 trillion by early 2020 after the 2017 tax cut (The Atlantic).3 details

US debt was $14.3 trillion in April 2011, and $23.2 trillion by early 2020 after the 2017 tax cut (The Atlantic).
Frum on X: markets have more confidence in the independence of the European Central Bank than the Trump-era Federal Reserve.
The FT reports investors see the higher borrowing costs doing little so far to slow US activity.

What we’re less sure of4 of 8 claims

Medium
The Iran war, inflation and pandemic debt hit every borrower, so the US yield gap must come from US policy choices such as the unpaid-for 2017 tax cut.
The story explicitly presents this causal argument as The Atlantic's David Frum's own reasoning. It is a single commentator's interpretation, not established fact.
Low
US debt was $34 trillion when Trump returned to office in 2025.
This conflicts with public Treasury data. Total public debt passed $34T in January 2024 and was about $36T by January 20, 2025. No listed source supports $34T; the story states the figure unattributed. It should be checked and corrected.
Medium
Markets have more confidence in the independence of the European Central Bank than in the Trump-era Federal Reserve.
The story explicitly attributes this to David Frum's post on X. It is his interpretation of market pricing, not measured data.
Medium
Investors see higher borrowing costs doing little so far to slow US economic activity.
The story explicitly attributes this to an FT report ('The FT reports investors see...'). It is a characterization of investor views from a single outlet.