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Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 4.

  1. Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
  2. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely — this issue
BLOOMBERGUpdate

Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely

Political Guyentist · October 5, 20261 min read

BLOOMBERG

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, led Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (President, Brazil), 80, as first-round ballots from Sunday, Oct. 4, were counted. If no candidate wins an outright majority, the two face a runoff on Oct. 25.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

Heading into the Oct. 4 first round, polls showed incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race for Brazil's presidency.

BackgroundWhy it matters beyond Brazil3 facts
  • A Bolsonaro win would extend a run of Trump-aligned victories in Colombia, Chile and Peru.
  • In 2025 Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazil and explicitly tied it to Jair Bolsonaro's trial.
  • Strategist Roberto Reis told Fox News that Datafolha underestimated Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 runoff number by 7%.

What we’re less sure of2 of 7 claims