His post came a day after reports that the Pentagon told Central Command to finish preparing major combat; Brent crude jumped 4.4% to $104.60 on those reports.
Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Thursday, Oct. 8, that the US will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The pledge. He called talks with Tehran "productive" and said the US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in force. Axios notes his past statements about Iran have not always matched what he later did.
The oil. US crude (WTI) settled at $92.19 after a 3.91% rise on the strike reports. AAA put gasoline at $4.36 a gallon, down from $4.41 a week earlier. Trump also claimed 22 million barrels moved through the Strait of Hormuz in one night, none to or from Iran; nobody has independently verified that figure. ([TS]Before the war the whole strait carried about 21 million barrels a day, per Kpler.)
Still open. An Israeli official told Axios that "after the midterms the chances of it happening increase significantly."
Catch up
- Sept. 14 — An Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying eight US Marines in the Strait of Hormuz; the Pentagon never announced it.
- Sept. 27 — Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz within seven days if the US ended its blockade; the WSJ said he told staff bombing was probable after the elections.
- Sept. 29 — Iran's UN delegation said it had no talks planned with the US and flew home; mediators kept working.
- Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled, and Trump denied aides' account that he had offered Iran sanctions relief.
- Oct. 1 — The Pentagon said the last US troops had left Iraq, ending the anti-ISIS mission.
- Oct. 2 — The Pentagon sent about 9,000 more sailors and Marines toward Iran; Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York.
- Oct. 7 — The Pentagon told Central Command to ready strike options usable before Nov. 3; a congressional report counted 81 US aircraft and drones lost or damaged, up from 42 in May.
What stays in place while the strike pledge holds
- More than 4,000 Marines and sailors were recently sent to the region aboard three warships led by USS Makin Island.
- Israel votes Oct. 27, a week before the US midterms, and Axios reports a renewed war could shape that election.