Warsh said the economy has "broadly conformed" to expectations since September's hike and said "I don't prejudge meetings," pushing CME FedWatch odds of an October hike down to 28%, against 22% before the inflation report.
Catch up
- Sep. 14 — The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023 as Brent crude hit $108.50.
- Sep. 16 — The Fed raised its rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less."
- Sep. 22–24 — Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee warned that beating inflation would be "painful." Fed Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely.
- Oct. 1–4 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, under the 3.7% forecast. Weak jobs data then cut bets on an October hike.
- Oct. 8 — Fed minutes showed 16 of 18 officials expected at least one more hike this year.
- Oct. 9 — The White House set a closed Nov. 5 hearing, run by a committee of Trump appointees, on whether there is "cause" to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
- Oct. 14–15 — September consumer prices rose 3.7% and producer prices rose 6.3%.
13 earlier issues
- August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
- UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
- Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
- UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
- Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
- UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
- Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
- UpdateConsumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4%, as increases spread beyond gasoline
Rate hike odds this week (CME FedWatch)
- Before the Oct. 14 CPI report: 22% (Axios; economist Justin Wolfers)
- After it: 50% per Axios, 44% per Wolfers, readings taken at different times
- Warsh called the AI investment boom "probably the most important thing" lifting the global economy (Axios)