Witkoff takes the Oslo proposals to Putin in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Oct. 21; Sergei Lavrov (Foreign Minister, Russia) says Moscow will listen but make no "political concessions."
Steve Witkoff met Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) in Oslo on Tuesday, Oct. 20. Jared Kushner joined by video, and the leaders of Norway and Finland were in the room. Afterward Zelensky said U.S. intelligence warnings of Russian missile attacks "work now." The same day, Russian drone attacks killed at least 10 people in Ukraine.
The catch. "Work now" is Zelensky's assurance, not a measurement, and the explanation for the gaps is Washington's: Secretary of State Marco Rubio blamed failures on Oct. 13 and Oct. 18 on technical problems, per the New York Post.
The Rubio call. Hours before the talks, Rubio spent 45 minutes on the phone with Zelensky. "There hasn't been a deliberate political directive to harm Ukraine," Rubio said, and he called it "scandalous" to claim Ukrainians are dying because the U.S. withholds intelligence. He did admit that Patriot interceptors already paid for by NATO countries may be delayed, citing the need to defend U.S. bases.
The hosts. Finland's President Alexander Stubb said "the process is back on track."
What next. Trump kept pressing Kyiv to "make a deal." Witkoff flies to St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Oct. 21. He will push Putin for three-way talks with Trump and Zelensky, per the Washington Post, and is expected to seek the release of Stephen Hubbard, the jailed American Trump says he asked Putin to free (see Quick bites).
Catch up
- Oct. 9 — Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop striking Russian refineries, a U.S. official said.
- Oct. 10 — Trump said Ukraine needs "a new president."
- Oct. 11 — Trump announced a refinery-only energy ceasefire; Moscow never confirmed it.
- Oct. 15 — Ukraine hit a Russian refinery after a three-day pause, accusing Washington of cutting intelligence and throttling Starlink.
- Oct. 16 — EU leaders said they "regret" the diesel move; Trump called Zelensky "not a good guy."
- Oct. 17 — Zelensky offered to negotiate "anywhere" and sought a U.S.–Russia–Ukraine meeting at the G20.
- Oct. 18 — A Ukrainian drone hit a St. Petersburg oil terminal; Zelensky spoke 40 minutes with Witkoff and Kushner.
- Oct. 19 — Trump told Zelensky to let "somebody else" negotiate; Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) threatened to block his agenda.
- UpdateTrump tells Zelensky to let 'somebody else' negotiate for Ukraine and says Russia 'has been fine'
6 earlier issues
- UpdateTrump says Ukraine needs "a new president" and tells Zelensky to stop striking Russian oil refineries
- UpdateTrump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire; Moscow has not confirmed it
- UpdateUkraine strikes a Russian refinery, ending the three-day energy-strike pause Trump demanded
- UpdateEU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy'
- UpdateZelensky says Ukraine will negotiate 'anywhere' and seeks a U.S.–Russia–Ukraine meeting at the G20
- UpdateUkrainian drone hits a St. Petersburg oil terminal; Zelensky holds 40-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner
How betting markets price the three-way summit Witkoff wants
- Polymarket, Trump, Putin and Zelensky meet before 2027: 6%
- Kalshi, Zelensky and Putin meet before 2027: 8.5%
- Kalshi, Zelensky and Putin meet before Jan. 20, 2029: 38.5%
A bar chart of the 3 figures the story lists under "How betting markets price the three-way summit Witkoff wants": Polymarket, Trump, Putin and Zelensky meet before 2027 at 6%, Kalshi, Zelensky and Putin meet before 2027 at 8.5%, Kalshi, Zelensky and Putin meet before Jan. 20, 2029 at 38.5%.
How betting markets price the three-way summit Witkoff wants
The numbers
| Percent | Share |
|---|---|
| Polymarket, Trump, Putin and Zelensky meet before 2027 | 6% |
| Kalshi, Zelensky and Putin meet before 2027 | 8.5% |
| Kalshi, Zelensky and Putin meet before Jan. 20, 2029 | 38.5% |