IRAN UPDATE
Trump is weighing another strike campaign as Netanyahu heads to Washington, the Pentagon moves forces and the Houthis threaten Red Sea shipping.
The nearly five-month war is approaching several decision points at once: talks with Tehran continue while Trump considers escalation, Netanyahu prepares to visit, U.S. forces move toward the region and Red Sea shipping faces another threat.
TALKS AND STRIKES
Trump weighs escalation as U.S. envoys resume talks
Trump met with top advisers as he considers a major military escalation, even as U.S. envoys resumed talks with Tehran. The conflict has lasted nearly five months.
NETANYAHU
Netanyahu will meet Trump Tuesday
This will be Netanyahu’s seventh Oval Office meeting with Trump since Trump returned to office—more than any other world leader. Axios says the visit could affect the timing and coordination of another joint strike; announced visits have previously been used as cover before attacks.
U.S. FORCE BUILDUP
Pentagon moves fighters, special operations forces and medics toward Iran
The Pentagon deployed special operations forces, fighter squadrons and refueling tankers, put bombers on heightened alert and sent about 150 additional medics to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. Israel raised military readiness and reopened bomb shelters in several cities.
WAR’S END
White House names no condition Iran can meet to stop the strikes
A U.S. official said attacks will continue until Trump “deems otherwise.” Eighteen U.S. service members have been killed since the war began, and the campaign has cost an estimated $37.5 billion.
GULF STATES
Bahrain and Kuwait sent warplanes to strike Iran
The Wall Street Journal reports that Bahrain and Kuwait sent jets to attack sites inside Iran earlier this month—their first direct military retaliation against Tehran.
IRAQ
Five explosive drones intercepted near U.S.-hosted base in Erbil
Kurdish security officials said coalition forces shot down five explosive-laden drones over Erbil International Airport, which hosts U.S. troops. No casualties or damage were reported; the attack came hours after the Pentagon completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran.
RED SEA
Houthis threaten oil tankers; Trump threatens to widen the war
The Houthis, an Iran-backed armed group that controls much of Yemen, threatened oil shipments through the Red Sea. Trump said he would expand the war if the group launches more attacks.
Context: About 5.4 million barrels of oil a day passed through Bab el-Mandeb (the narrow strait at the Red Sea’s southern entrance) in early 2026, down 42% from 9.3 million in 2023. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that rerouting around Africa adds about 15 days to a voyage from the Arabian Sea to Europe.
SECURITY
Iran threat prompted Trump’s Air Force One swap
The Secret Service urged Trump to leave the NATO summit in Turkey aboard the older Air Force One rather than the newer, Qatari-donated jet after receiving a credible Iranian threat, according to The New York Times.