Trump’s tariffs will cost the average US household $900 in 2026
The current tariff package is projected to shrink long-run GDP by 0.4% and reduce hours worked by the equivalent of 367,000 full-time jobs before foreign retaliation.
The Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs will raise $121.4 billion in federal revenue in 2026, making them the 19th-largest US tax increase since 1940. Its model projects $1.612 trillion in conventional revenue from 2026 through 2035, falling to $1.186 trillion after accounting for the tariffs’ economic effects.