Political Guyentist

60,000 migrants reach Ceuta over two days; Spain begins mass returns

Spain said it had returned about 48,300 entrants by Friday evening.

Between Thursday and Friday, migrants—mainly young Moroccan men—reached Ceuta by swimming around border barriers or scaling the fences separating the Spanish enclave from Morocco. Reuters separately reported about 49,000 people in the single-day peak; the BBC figure covers both days, so the totals use different windows.

Context[BBC reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57156320) that the previous record surge brought about 8,000 people into Ceuta in May 2021. This week’s reported 60,000 is roughly 7.5 times that total. This time, Spain’s Supreme Court had just ruled that migrants intercepted at sea could not be summarily returned to Morocco; the BBC says controls then apparently broke down and entrants could approach the fence and coastal jetty with unusual ease. Sánchez said trafficking networks spread a self-serving interpretation of the ruling. Spain’s Interior Ministry said roughly 48,300 entrants had returned to Morocco by Friday evening. ![60,000 migrants reach Ceuta over two days chart](/charts/2026-08-01-60-000-migrants-enter-spain-s-ceuta-enclave-s-nchez-calls-it-a-territorial-viola.svg "Source: Spain's PM blames traffickers after 60,000 migrants reach Ceuta from Morocco")

BBC5 sources

2not newsus

Democrats need 57 of 77 near-middle districts to win a House majority

Democrats now need 57 of the 77 districts between R+5 and D+5—74%—to win a House majority.

Cook Political Report’s new Partisan Voting Index incorporates the latest congressional boundaries. Dave Wasserman calculates that Democrats must win nearly three-quarters of the districts between R+5 and D+5 to reach a House majority.

ContextCook PVI measures partisan lean by comparing each district’s two-party presidential vote in 2020 and 2024 with the national result; it is not a House candidate’s win probability. The 57-of-77 hurdle assumes Democrats win 161 seats outside that band: 161 plus 57 reaches the 218 seats required for a House majority. No comparable count for the prior map was provided.

COOK POLITICAL REPORT1 source

3not newsworld

China’s nominal exchange rate held steady while its real trade-weighted rate fell 14%

China gained price competitiveness through domestic deflation, not a broad devaluation of the renminbi.

With March 2022 set to 100, the BIS real effective exchange-rate index fell to about 80 in 2025 before recovering to 86.0, while the nominal index ended at 100.5 and the CFETS index at 98.4. China’s CPI inflation dipped below zero during 2023–2025 as advanced-economy inflation peaked near 7.5% and emerging- and developing-economy inflation peaked near 18%.

ContextThe real effective exchange rate incorporates inflation differences across trading partners. Faster price growth abroad therefore lowered the relative price of Chinese goods even as the trade-weighted renminbi remained near its March 2022 level. ![China’s nominal exchange rate held steady while its real trade-weighted rate fell 14% chart](/charts/2026-08-01-china-s-nominal-exchange-rate-held-steady-while-its-real-trade-weighted-rate-fel.svg "Source: X / @andrewbatson")

GAVEKAL DRAGONOMICS1 source

4not newsus

U.S. GDP slowed to 1.5%, but core private demand grew 3.9%

Computers, components and data-center construction accounted for more than half of quarterly growth.

Annualized real GDP growth fell from 2.1% in the first quarter to 1.5% in the second-quarter advance estimate. Real private domestic final purchases—consumption plus business investment—grew 3.9%.

ContextTedeschi’s follow-up calculation attributes more than half of the quarter’s 1.5% annualized growth, and about one-fifth of the 2.1% year-over-year increase, to computers, parts, peripherals and data-center construction. Headline GDP also includes inventories, net exports and government spending; private domestic final purchases exclude those components, which is why the two measures can move differently. The cited calculation does not decompose the 2.4-point gap among those components. ![U.S. GDP slowed to 1.5%, but core private demand grew 3.9% chart](/charts/2026-08-01-u-s-gdp-slowed-to-1-5-but-core-private-demand-grew-3-9.svg "Source: X / @ernietedeschi")

ERNIE TEDESCHI1 source