Silver's model puts Democrats up 7.8 points on the generic congressional ballot

Nate Silver's Saturday, Sept. 19, update puts Democrats up 7.8 points on the generic ballot. That is down from 8.6 among likely voters. He called the lead "deeply into wave territory." Silver said a run of strong Democratic polls drove the number. His team did catch a small bug in how expert ratings loaded into the model. He said that was not the cause.