[UPDATE] Trump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Monday, Sept. 21 that a new U.S. attack would change the weapons and the geography of the war, now in its seventh month.
The three options. Trump said Monday, Sept. 21 that he is in a "deciding mode" on Iran, naming three options: wiping the country out, letting it rot economically, or making a deal. Asked whether he would meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (President, Iran) at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, he said he would "probably" be open to it. Iran confirmed Pezeshkian will attend. Tehran's warning. Hours earlier, Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said a fresh American assault would prompt Iran to change both the weaponry and the geography of the war, which began Feb. 28 and is now near its seventh month. The war's costs. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most traffic and Houthi forces have bombed an east-west oil pipeline, keeping fuel prices high. Oil fell Monday on the prospect of talks. (TS: Brent was near $97 Monday; it hasn't closed above $100 since May, per market data.) "My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave." — Donald Trump, to Fox News Still open. What Tehran would want in return for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane most Gulf oil must pass through, has not been made public.
PREVIOUSLY
- Sept. 1 — U.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast; Trump said a bigger attack was "waiting in the wings."
- Sept. 2-3 — About 100 Iranian targets hit; Iran fired at U.S. bases in four countries; Iranian officials counted at least 18 dead, including four at a wedding compound in Kuhestak.
- Sept. 5-6 — U.S. destroyed or disabled three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier and destroyer; no Americans hurt.
- Sept. 8-10 — Iran declared a restricted zone near Hormuz, doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest users, and fired 20 missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan; Jordan intercepted 18.
- Sept. 14 — An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing one; Trump smirked and said "I don't want to say" when asked if the U.S. did it.
- Sept. 20 — A supertanker shortage and the hit on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline squeezed fuel; U.S. gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon, per AAA.
What the blockade did to Iran's oil shipments:
- Crude loadings inside the Gulf fell from 1.83 million barrels a day in March to 255,000 a day in August
- Iranian crude sitting on ships outside the blockade dropped from 90 million barrels in mid-July to 29 million in mid-September
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Iran's economy is buckling under the naval blockade but Tehran is not backing down
The IMF puts Iranian inflation near 69% this year and a 5.4% contraction, the worst since the 1980s; the minimum monthly wage is worth about $72.
SEMI-RELATED
Gulf states are pressing Washington for a reset with Iran rather than more strikes
The UAE is calling for a "new mindset" and Qatar for a regional security framework; both are absorbing the freight and insurance costs of the closed strait.