NBC's new polling average puts Democrats up 52%-43% on the generic ballot; Trump at 26% with independents
The widest Democratic lead of Trump's second term, partly because NBC switched from registered to likely voters.
The 9-point lead is the widest of Trump's second term, and part of it comes from NBC switching its average from registered voters to likely voters; about 5% are undecided, unsure or third-party.
What Democrats need on Nov. 3:
- House: net gain of 3 seats, made harder by Republican redistricting
- Senate: net gain of 4 seats, with 35 seats up
- Pollster Lakshya Jain: white respondents who finish polls have swung left far more than white voters who skip them