Political Guyentist
← 2026-09-2917brief

[UPDATE] Talarico leads Paxton 47-44 in Texas Senate average; Tillis calls Trump's endorsement a 'colossal mistake'

Republicans now openly question Trump's pick of Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn.

James Talarico (D-TX) leads Ken Paxton (R-TX) 47-44 in the Decision Desk HQ polling average. He has led 25 of the last 30 polls, per DDHQ. Through September 2018, Beto O'Rourke led just 1 of 30. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) said Trump made a 'colossal mistake' backing Paxton over John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas). Karl Rove said the race would be over if Cornyn were the nominee.

GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak said outside groups spent $100 million to help Paxton in September alone. AdImpact counts $98.5 million in pro-Paxton super PAC ads for the whole general election through mid-September, per Houston Public Media.

PREVIOUSLY

  • March 3 — Talarico won the Democratic nomination outright. Cornyn topped the GOP primary 42.0% to 40.5% but fell short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.
  • May 26 — With Trump's endorsement, Paxton beat Cornyn in the runoff, about 64% to 36%.
  • Aug. 24 — Cook Political Report moved the race to Toss Up.
  • Sept. 27 — A BIG DATA POLL had Talarico ahead 43.6% to 39.3% among registered voters, about 4 points, with a Libertarian at 5.2%.