Consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, the lowest since April 2014 and below the pandemic low
The expectations gauge fell 5.9 points to 63.6, far under the 80 line the Conference Board says is generally followed by recession within a year.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, a monthly survey of how Americans feel about the economy, came out Tuesday, Sept. 29. Chief economist Dana Peterson said it "deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening." Respondents pointed to gas and grocery costs. 109.3 on the present-situation index, which rates business and jobs today, down 7.9 points from 117.2 in August. Views of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024. 3.4% annual inflation in August, the price backdrop for the survey. $4.48 a gallon for regular gas, the AAA national average, up $1.34 from a year ago. PBS put the average at $4.46.
Why the sub-80 recession warning has not come true yet:
- Expectations have sat under 80 every month since February 2025, and no recession has been declared.
- Unemployment is 4.1%, per Axios.
- The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker shows the economy growing at about 5% this quarter, per Axios.