Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts 11 House races toward Democrats; Quinnipiac has Democrats up 51-39

All three competitive Republican-held House seats in Virginia moved one rating column toward Democrats, and the seat held by Jen Kiggans (Rep-R Virginia) now leans Democratic.

• NBC News poll: Democrats lead the generic ballot 50-45, a 5-point margin versus Quinnipiac's 12 among registered voters.
• Nate Silver: models project a big blue wave, but at about the 75th percentile of historical midterms, not an outlier.
• Texas: about 150,000 more voters cast ballots in the Democratic Senate primary than in the Republican one, per the NYT.