Political GuyentistThe waiver
Seen from above, a damaged apartment block with its windows blown out, debris strewn across the yard below and workers clearing it.
01 / The waiverWashington

Republicans and Democrats condemned Trump’s waiver of the Graham Act’s Russia tariffs and sanctions, and Rep. Don Bacon said he won’t fund Trump’s agenda.

Trump’s executive order of Friday, Oct. 16 waived the penalties two days before they were due to take effect, among them a 100% tariff on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas and a 500% tariff on Russian goods.

Photograph: PBS NewsHour

The penalties never took effect for a single day, and the White House has named no Russian concession received in exchange.

October 18, 2026 · Six stories, illustrated

Who condemned the waiver, and who defended it

Against it

  • Rep. Don Bacon · Republican · Nebraska, on X

    Trump’s agenda “is dead. Many of us won’t fund these things knowing he is propping up a dictator’s invasion and throwing an ally under the bus.”

  • Sen. Thom Tillis · Republican · North Carolina, to NBC

    “there’s a legitimate case for saying the president’s not following the law.”

  • Sen. John Cornyn · Republican · Texas

    “Lindsey would be appalled.”

  • Chuck Schumer, Senate Democratic leader

    Trump “just gave Putin the best birthday gift he’ll get this year.”

  • Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president

    Called the decision unfortunate and urged the law’s backers to keep speaking out.

For it

  • Taylor Rogers, White House spokesperson

    Enforcing the penalties now “would impede ongoing U.S. efforts to negotiate a durable and comprehensive peace agreement.”

  • Rep. Thomas Massie · Republican · Kentucky

    One of seven Republicans who voted against the law, he was “glad to see Trump has used the executive authority granted to him by Congress to waive almost all of the provisions of this stupid law.”

What the waiver switched off

The Graham Act’s penalties on RussiaPassed the Senate 86-11

  1. 100%tariff on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas
  2. 500%tariff on Russian goods
  3. § 115The off switch Congress wrote in: only a written national-interest certification and a report explaining it. The White House says Trump submitted both.
Due to take effect
Sunday, Oct. 18
Waived
Friday, Oct. 16

In force: not a single day

The order sets no end date. The waivers stay in place until administration officials decide further action is needed, and the White House says Trump keeps the power to switch the penalties on.

Where Bacon’s leverage runs

Government funding deadlineDec. 11

  1. Every House Democrat
  2. Don Bacon
  3. Two more Republicans

All voting no: enough to sink a party-line bill.

What the Russian diesel deal promised, against today’s diesel prices
300,000 metric tons
of Russian diesel Trump said would be supplied immediately, under a deal announced the week before the waiver
$6.18 a gallon
U.S. retail diesel the week of Oct. 12, in the Energy Information Administration’s weekly survey, down from the year’s weekly high of $6.53 the week of Sept. 21
Up almost 70%
since the Iran war began in February, per NBC News
Read the reporting3 sources
The complete story pbs.orgabcnews.compbs.org
Keep scrolling. You set the pace.
03 / The ballotsLos Angeles

Trump said Los Angeles election officials “will all go to jail” if they count the mail ballots of 20,000 people DHS flagged as likely noncitizens.

Trump reposted on Truth Social a Justice Department warning that counting those ballots could make officials “aiders and abettors” of illegal voting, and added his own line. The warning came from acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter; the department has sued the state and Los Angeles County to keep the ballots uncounted.

“They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!”
Donald Trump, on Truth Social

The law the warning cites18 U.S.C. § 611tops out at one year per violation

California’s 23,164,977 registered voters on Sept. 4, in cells of 20,000 people

One cellabout 20,000 people DHS flagged as likely noncitizens: about 0.09% of the roll

Every cell20,000 registered voters

A flag, not a finding

The lit cell is the list’s size, not a count of noncitizens: in court, the department’s lawsuit says only that officials “believe” the flagged people “may be” registered. The list is about 20,000, so the lit cell is approximate; the last cell is drawn as the quarter it is.

The catch: the same list, described two ways

In court

The department’s lawsuit

Says only that officials “believe” the flagged people “may be” registered, and calls them “likely” noncitizens.

In public

A department spokesperson, to the Los Angeles Times

The 20,000 “have been manually verified.”

Logan’s office said on Friday, Oct. 16 that it had yet to receive the method behind the list.

“The U.S. Department of Justice has chosen to litigate their unverified assertions of voting eligibility. At this point, it is best for this to be addressed in court.”Dean Logan, Los Angeles County registrar, on Friday, Oct. 16, 18 days before the Nov. 3 election
Why flagged voters cannot simply be struck, or officials charged
90 days
The National Voter Registration Act, the federal voter-list law, requires mass computer-match removal programs to stop 90 days before a federal election.
§2201(a)(8)
California’s Elections Code requires proof a voter is ineligible, not just a missed DOJ deadline. A wrongly cancelled voter can register conditionally through Election Day, Nov. 3, and the ballot counts once the county verifies eligibility.
Aiding and abetting
Prosecutors would first have to prove a noncitizen actually voted, then that the official knowingly meant to help. A database flag shows neither.
Past lists
Texas flagged 95,000 voters in 2019, and its elections director later testified that more than 25,000 were citizens. In July, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin suggested California had some 190,000 noncitizen voters, per the Los Angeles Times.

Still open: the Justice Department’s lawsuit asks a court to order the flagged ballots held uncounted; no judge has granted that yet.

Read the reporting3 sources
The complete story thehill.comlatimes.comabcnews.com
Volodymyr Zelensky, in a black jacket, stands beside a Ukrainian flag in front of a carved stone relief.
04 / The capUkraine · EU

Zelensky said Ukrainian road tests show Starlink and Starshield terminals cut out above 161 km/h only inside Ukraine.

Ukrainian testers drove vehicles carrying the terminals, SpaceX’s consumer and military satellite-internet services, through EU countries and into Ukraine, Zelensky said Saturday, Oct. 17. Abroad the link held above 180 km/h; inside Ukraine it dropped at 161 km/h (100 mph).

Photograph: Axios

He called the limit a “planned operation.”

Four speeds in the Starshield story, each from 0 on one scale
  1. 400 km/hinterceptor drones the network carried before the cap, per Axios

  2. above 180 km/hin EU countries, the link held; how far above, the tests do not say

  3. 161 km/hinside Ukraine, where it dropped: 100 mph

  4. 80 km/hFebruary 2026: the cutoff that grounded a drone unit

One scale

Each bar starts at 0 km/h. The abroad reading is a floor: the link held above 180 km/h, and the reporting does not say how far above, so that bar stops at 180 with an open end. The dashed mark on each track is the 161 km/h cutoff inside Ukraine.

“Here it shuts off in the second minute after 161 km/h and stops working. We lose both drones and connectivity.”Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president
What the cap costs, Zelensky says
Fighter jets
Ukraine’s interceptor drones can’t work under the cap, so it is sending fighter jets after Russian Shahed attack drones instead. Zelensky says those jets hit about half their targets.
More than 15 sites
of power generation and transmission hit by Russia in one large attack the same day, he said, CBS reports.
Who ordered the cap: three answers, each pointing elsewhere
  1. SpaceXcalls it a technical problem
  2. SpaceX contactspoint to the White House
  3. The White Housepoints to Elon Musk

Per a Ukrainian official, to Axios. No one has said who ordered it.

SpaceX has limited Ukraine’s service at least six times since 2022. The reporting names these
  1. September 2022

    Elon Musk refused coverage toward occupied Sevastopol.

  2. October 2022

    1,300 unpaid military terminals went dark.

  3. February 2023

    SpaceX curbed drone control.

  4. February 2026

    A cutoff above 80 km/h grounded a drone unit. A whitelist of registered terminals restored service within days.

  5. Now

    The cap is twice as high, and it applies only inside Ukraine.

Still open: who ordered the cap.

Read the reporting3 sources
The complete story washingtonexaminer.comcbsnews.comaxios.com
A gray military helicopter on a ship’s deck at sea, its rotor turning and red and green lights glowing.
05 / The straitStrait of Hormuz

Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hit a record high, NBC News reports, and Iran’s Guards say two tankers hit mines.

Attacks on ships in and around the strait, the narrow channel between Iran and Oman that carries Gulf oil to the world, have surged as Iran escalates, NBC News reports. The International Maritime Organization counts more than 20 civilian sailors killed since February.

Photograph: Fox News

CENTCOM says about 400 merchant ships crossed in the past seven days, and about 97% of those that tried got through without being hit.

Two claims about the strait

Iran’s claim

Reuters, Saturday, Oct. 17

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the strait.

The U.S. answer

Capt. Tim Hawkins, CENTCOM spokesman

The Guards are “not achieving their objective of closing the Strait of Hormuz. It is open.”

CENTCOM is the U.S. military command for the Middle East. Reuters reported no independent confirmation that mines caused the damage.

Three counts of a week in the strait, from three counters
about 400
merchant ships crossed in the past seven days, per CENTCOM
about 599
crossings in a normal 2025 week, by IMF PortWatch’s count
about 903
crossings a week from Feb. 1–27, just before the fighting, per UNCTAD and Clarksons

Not one series: CENTCOM has not said which vessel types its count includes, so its 400 may not compare with either baseline.

What rides on the strait
About 20 million barrels a day
of oil moved through the strait before the war, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, per the International Energy Agency’s 2025 figures
6–10%
of a ship’s hull value: what war-risk insurance ran in early October

Still open: neither tanker has been named. Al Jazeera said ship names and cargo origins were not immediately available.

Read the reporting3 sources
The complete story foxnews.comx.comreuters.com
06 / The commission · Long readWashington

The Federal Election Commission enters the midterms with two of its six commissioners, too few to open investigations or answer campaigns’ legal questions.

The Federal Election Commission, the agency that enforces federal campaign-finance law, has six seats and needs four votes to act, the Washington Post reports. Only two commissioners remain. This is the fourth time it has lost its quorum, the minimum number of commissioners needed to vote.

The FEC’s four quorum lapses, by length, each from zero on one scale
  1. about 6 months2008

  2. about 9 months2019–20

  3. about 5½ monthsJuly to December 2020, spanning that November’s presidential election

  4. about 17½ monthsSince May 1, 2025, as of mid-October 2026

Lengths are the reporting’s approximations. The current lapse is still running, so its bar ends open.

Without a quorum

What stops

  • Opening new investigations
  • Fining violators
  • Finishing audits
  • Formal advisory opinions: binding answers to a campaign that asks whether a specific plan is legal

What continues

  • Staff take in and publish campaign finance reports
  • Staff answer filing questions
  • Staff log new complaints
The way back to a quorum
  1. At least two new commissioners

    Each confirmed by the Senate and sworn in. One new commissioner alone would leave the agency at three, still one vote short.

  2. Monday, Oct. 19 · Thursday, Oct. 22

    The next Senate sessions, pro forma ones: brief meetings where normally no business is done. The Senate could confirm both nominees at one of them by unanimous consent, which means no senator objects.

  3. Monday, Nov. 9

    The Senate’s first scheduled chance to confirm the two pending nominees, six days after Election Day.

The FEC is not the only enforcer of campaign-finance law: the Justice Department can still bring criminal charges for knowing and willful violations, with or without the commission.

What the Justice Department can still prosecute without the FEC
$2,000 or more
in knowing, willful violations in a year: up to one year in prison
$25,000 or more
the maximum is five years
Personal use
Turning campaign money into personal spending remains a federal crime.
False reports
Deliberately falsifying reports filed with the FEC remains a federal crime.
Read the reporting2 sources
The complete story washingtonpost.comdemocrats.senate.gov