EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

1. The criminal trial of former President Donald Trump over hush money payments began in New York. Jury selection proved challenging due to widespread bias. The judge denied Trump's attempts to delay the trial and allowed some evidence related to election interference. Trump also faces potential contempt charges for violating a gag order.

2. Interest payments on the U.S. national debt are rising rapidly, consuming a significant portion of individual income tax revenue. Both tax cuts and spending increases have contributed to the debt growth over the past two decades.

3. Americans have substantially larger homes compared to Europeans, though the disparity may not be as drastic as initially reported.

4. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. reached a new high for 2024 at 7.44%, making homeownership increasingly unaffordable.

5. Child care costs in New York City have become a crisis, with many families spending a substantial portion of their income on care for young children.

6. Polling suggests that abortion is the top issue for suburban women in key swing states, with many holding views to the left of the Democratic Party.

7. Pro-Palestinian protesters disrupted traffic at major U.S. cities, including Chicago's O'Hare Airport and the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, drawing attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

8. Former SNL cast member Rob Schneider delivered an offensive comedy set at a Republican event, leading the organizers to cut his performance short.

9. The Archdiocese of Baltimore proposed reducing the number of parishes from 61 to 21, reflecting the broader decline in religious participation in the U.S.

10. Trump's economic plan for 2025 includes imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports, which could increase costs for American consumers and potentially reduce government revenue.

11. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, is planning to "institutionalize Trumpism" through initiatives like consolidating executive power and restricting the federal workforce.

12. Hamas rejected a U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian proposal for a hostage deal and ceasefire, potentially signaling a lack of interest in reaching an agreement.

13. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy appears to be aligning himself closely with Trump, potentially positioning himself as a vice presidential candidate.

14. President Biden proposed canceling student loan debt for borrowers who entered repayment over two decades ago, but estimates suggest this policy would primarily benefit high-income households.

15. House Republicans plan to pass bills providing aid to Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, as well as including provisions related to TikTok and Russian assets.

16. An audit found that Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders' office potentially violated state laws in purchasing a $19,000 lectern, though her office disputed the findings.

1.) Trump’s hush-money case started today in NY. Updates below:

Trump is now the first former president in US history to stand trial on criminal charges.

[TS] My summary:

Jury selection began in Donald Trump's historic criminal trial in New York, with over half of the initial pool admitting bias, underscoring challenges in seating an impartial jury. Trump's attempts to delay by seeking the judge's recusal failed. Prosecutors scored wins by allowing evidence pointing to election interference. Trump also faces potential contempt for violating a gag order by attacking witnesses, adding to the legal woes for the former president on trial.

[TS] If you want a full list of updates see below, otherwise, skip to the next story.

Great live feed from Adam Klasfeld (author at Just Security) and Tyler McBrien(Lawfare)

• Judge Merchan has denied Trump’s motion for him to recuse (before the beginning of the jury selection).

• Judge won't let prosecutors mention that Melania was pregnant at the time of the alleged affair with Daniels.

  • Justice Merchan allowed prosecutors to mention the "Access Hollywood" tape to jurors — but not play it.

    • He denies the DA's bid for him to reconsider that ruling.

  • The judge also denies a bid to enter Trump's deposition from the E. Jean Carroll case into evidence (where Trump defended his remarks on the tape)

  • Prosecutors cannot share Trump's Truth Social post about Michael Cohen on direct, but it will inevitably be admissible on redirect.

• Manhattan DA’s office asks court to impose a $1k sanction for each of 3 prior posts, order him to take them down, and warn him that further violations will result in jail time. DA notes a 9:12 am post today, potentially made inside the courthouse, also violates the order.

  • Re: the the prosecution’s request to have Trump held in contempt, Merchan says he will hold a hearing on the issue on Weds, 4/24 at 2:15pm.

• Maggie Haberman of NYT (who’s also in NYC covering the trial) says “Trump appears to be sleeping. His head keeps dropping down and his mouth goes slack.”

  • [TS] A regular ole Don Snoreleone. If this was Biden it would be front page news in every paper today: “Snoozing Biden Raises Questions about Mental Fitness.” When I talk about the curve Trump is graded on, this is another example.

• Merchan to Trump: "If you disrupt the proceedings, you can be excluded from the courtroom and committed to jail based on your conduct and the trial will continue on in your absence…do you understand?"

• Graham Kates: More than half of prospective jurors in the first panel of 96 people have been excused after saying they could not be fair and impartial. At least 50 were let go for that reason

• Judge Merchan rejected a request from Turmp to be excused from the trial next Thur so he can attend Supreme Court arguments on presidential immunity.

  • "Your client is a criminal defendant in New York. He is required to be here. He is not required to be in the Supreme Court. I will see him here next week"

• Nine potential jurors in Donald Trump’s hush money trial cleared an initial round of vetting Monday.

[RELATED] Trump complains on Truth Social that the Judge won’t let him attend Barron’s high school graduation, which falls on Friday May 17th. (Said the same thing at presser per Acyn).

[CONTEXT] The court is not in session on Math 17th.

[TS] Additional context per Jeff Pearlman:

Baron is Donald Trump's fifth child. He's had four others—all of whom graduated high school. Here's Donald Trump's attendance record at his kids' graduation ceremonies:

1. In 1996, Donald Trump, Jr. graduated from the Hill School in Pottstown, Pennsylvania. Donald Trump failed to attend graduation.

2. In 2000, Ivanka Trump graduated from Choate, a boarding school in Wallingford, CT. Donald Trump failed to attend graduation.

3. In 2002, Eric Trump graduated from the Hill School in Pottstown, Pennsylvania. Donald Trump failed to attend graduation.

4. In 2012, Tiffany Trump graduated from Viewpoint School in Calabasas, California. Donald Trump failed to attend graduation.

5. In 2024, Baron Trump is graduating from Oxbridge Academy in Palm Beach. Thanks to legal proceedings, Donald Trump can pretend he had plans on attending.

[TS] Incredible.

2.) [TS] Wanted to draw some additional attention to the interest payments of the US debt.

• 39 cents of every dollar in individual income taxes paid so far this year has gone to finance interest on the debt.

• Interest payments are set to outpace revenue as a % of GDP:

CRFB makes a case for both spending increases and revenue reductions as the cause for our debt growth.

Looking at the policy changes enacted since the beginning of 2001, we find:

• Debt is 37 percent of GDP higher due to major tax cuts, 33 percenthigher due to major spending increases, and 28 percenthigher due to recession responses.

• Most debt – 77 percent of GDP – can be attributed to bipartisan legislation.

• Absent these tax cuts and spending increases, the debt would be fully paid off.

Comparing spending and revenue as a share of the economy over time, we find:

• Rising spending relative to GDP explains about two-thirds of the growth in annual budget deficits since 2001, while declining revenue explains one-third.

• Had revenue remained stable as a share of the economy, the debt would be half its size; had primary spending been stable, it would be nearly paid off.

3.) StatisticUrban shares housing size comparison between US and EU:

Compared to Europeans, Americans have truly enormous houses. Here's the median size of a dwelling in every US state contrasted against select European countries on the same scale.

[UDPATE] Ryan Radia points out that

Maybe the American Home Shield® analysis of Zillow data is more accurate than the HUD-Census Bureau American Housing Survey, but for those who are curious about the latter, it tends to show somewhat smaller housing units in the United States (only certain states are available):

Looks like American Home Shield includes houses and condos, whereas the American Housing Survey includes houses, condos, and apartments.

[TS] I guess the disparities aren’t quite as drastic as the previous snapshot. Speaking of homes…

4.) The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticks up to 7.44% per Lance Lamber:

New high for for 2024.

2024 range for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.61% <---> 7.44%

[TS] Not good news if you don’t own a home. My guess is: If you don’t already own a home — at these rates — you will probably not own one for another 3-4 years.

5.) [TS] This story seems to resonate beyond NYC. GOTHAMIST: Why child care is so expensive in NYC that it's become a crisis.

Child care is already unaffordable for 80% of New York City families, according to child care experts.

The 80th percentile of families pay between $14,000 and $20,000 a year for care for a child 5 years old or younger, reports show. A family earning $86,000 could spend a quarter of their salary on care for an infant or toddler, which blows past federal standards that say child care should not cost more than 7% of a household's income. Meanwhile, about a quarter of child care workers live in poverty, reports show, and some neighborhoods have fewer child care options since many closed after the pandemic.

[TS] I had not heard of the of the federal standard for childcare being only 7% of HHI, but that is way out of market. Considering the Government only allows “The Dependent Care FSA (DCFSA) maximum annual contribution limit to be $5,000 per household” that is probably how they’re coming back to 7% (which would yield a household income of $71,400 - close to the $74,580 US avg). A few points:

• This should absolutely be at minimum $5,000 per child (not just total).

  • Even then, $5,000 is too low:

• Most daycares nationwide are around $200-$250 per week per child for <5yo. (Care.com has it at $230/week for ‘24.%22))

  • That’s $10,400 - $13,000 per child per year

  • If 7% holds true that would be a household income of $149,000 - $185,000. Which is nowhere close to the median in the country (ie $74.6k HHI).

[TS] The “market” way to interpret this: The overhead from formal childcare means the parent's market productivity is less than their value in simply taking care of their own children. In short: the market says they should stay at home.

I honestly don’t know how you’d go about fixing this issue.

6.) Polling on suburban women in swing states per WSJ:

Among suburban women in the swing states of WI, MI, PA, NV, and AZ, 39% say abortion is their main issue. No other issue is even close.

They’re about equally likely to say Biden is too pro-choice and that he’s too pro-life. Many are to the left of Dems.

7.) More Pro-Palestinian protestors disrupt major cities.

A.) Blocking the road entering O’Hare Airport in Chicago.

Passengers are forced to leave their cars and walk to the terminals. Video per wearedissenters:

[TS] Just a point of clarification here: The chant “from the river to the sea” is inherently genocidal towards Israel.

The land between the river (Jordan River) to the sea (Mediterranean Sea) encompasses Israel.

[TS] Do I think the majority of people (ie college students) shouting this slogan understand this and know the implications? Probably not. And I’m sure if you pressed them on it they certainly wouldn’t be calling for Israel and its inhabitants to be exterminated (at least not publicly). Overall, it’s a bad slogan that carries too much baggage.

B.) Protestors with a sign saying “stop the world for Gaza” blocks vehicles on the Golden Gate Bridge (CA) with traffic backed up as far as the eye can see.

[TS] I believe the net effect of “disruption” protests are counterproductive to the cause. Ask yourself: Are the people stuck in traffic more likely to vote for your cause after the protest? Probably not. So, what is the purpose? Raise awareness by any means necessary?

My other issue with this: **Israel is a sovereign state with a democratically elected leader.**The protestors are acting like it’s the US in Gaza. It’s not. The people of Israel have their own autonomy. Can Biden put additional pressure on Bibi and his govt? Yes (and he should). But he can not unilaterally stop any actions by Israel/IDF.

[RELATED] Outside the New York Stock Exchange for an anti-Israel rally, a person waves the Hezbollah flag:

[CONTEXT] Hezbollah has been a US designated foreign terrorist organization since 1997.

Among many other things, they were responsible for the ’83 US embassy bombing in Beruit that killed 63 people (including 17 Americans) and the marine barracks bombing that killed 241 American marines.

8.) [TS] Not news news, but per Daniel Lippman (POLITICO): Former SNL cast member Rob Schneider delivered a comedy set so off-color and off-putting to a group of prominent Republicans late last year that the host, Senate Working Group, cut the performance short and later apologized to attendees.

[TS] Cancel culture, AMIRITE?

[UNRELATED] Also, news-ish but not worth running an entire story about: Trump’s comments about Gettysburg at a recent rally:

[TS] Riveting stuff. This guy is having the time of his life:

9.) BALTIMORE SUN: Proposal would radically reshape Catholic Baltimore, cut parishes by 66%

The Archdiocese of Baltimore is proposing to slash the number of parishes from 61 to 21, closing several dozen historic churches.

[TS] I’ve covered the religious decline in the US in previous Trumpdates. This is another data point. Although this is likely due in some part to families moving to the suburbs and going to mass locally because they can’t afford to live in the city.

[RELATED] There’s an interesting study by NBER about church attendance using cellphone data. Per Devin Pope / National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): Religious Worship Attendance in America: Evidence from Cellphone Data

[TS] Highlights:

• 73% of people step into a religious place of worship at least once during the year on the primary day of worship (e.g. Sundays for most Christian churches)

• 22% reported to attend services “weekly” in surveys (ie 1 in 5) BUT!—

• Only 5% of Americans actually attend services “weekly” via cellphone tracking data (ie 1 in 20)

[TS] I guess “thou shalt not lie” is more of a suggestion than a commandment.

Guess which state had the highest attendance? Is anyone surprised that it’s Utah?

10.) Trump’s economic plan for 2025

[TS] The highlights here are:

• Tariffs (especially on China)

• Reduce trade deficit

• Cut medicaid for a corp tax cut

Let’s just stick with tariffs/trade. Trump wants to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

[CONTEXT] What’s a tariff? A tariff is a tax imposed by a government on imported goods. Tariffs are typically used to protect domestic industries from foreign competition by making imported goods more expensive, which can help to level the playing field for domestic producers. Tariffs can also be used to raise revenue for the government or to retaliate against other countries for perceived unfair trade practices.

Why is this plan bad?

A.) Tariffs Are a Regressive Tax That Impose the Greatest Burden on Low-income Americans

Per the AEI:

Tariffs – taxes on imported goods – likely impose a heavier burden on lower-income households, as these households generally spend more on traded goods as a share of expenditure/income and because of the higher level of tariffs placed on some key consumer goods.

[TS] Think of it like a middle-class tax hike.

B.) Despite generally raising revenues, these tariffs on China would produce “significantly less revenue, and possibly generate a loss.”

Why? Well, if trade remained the same then the overall tax revenue the govt. collects would increase (because tariffs function as a tax increase), but that’s the issue: If there was a 60% tariff on imports from China we would expect see a dramatic reduction in imports. Think of it this way, we’d be getting a higher dollar amount onfewergoods coming

The CRFB estimates that:

Assuming elasticities consistent with trade literature, we estimate this tariff increase would reduce imports from China by about 85 percent. Despite the much higher tariff rates on remaining imports, tariff revenue on Chinese goods would fall from roughly $65 billion to $55 billion in FY 2035 under this scenario.

When incorporating impacts on individual and corporate income taxes and payroll taxes, on a conventional basis we estimate the policy would generate as much as $300 billionin net revenue over a decade or lose as much as $50 billion, again depending on what share of Chinese imports are replaced with domestic versus foreign goods.

Trump wants to devalue the dollar:

Per POLITICO: Trump trade advisers plot dollar devaluation.

Advisers close to the former president — particularly his former trade chief Robert Lighthizer — are considering policies that would weaken the dollar relative to other currencies, which could juice U.S. exports but also fuel inflation.

[TS] This just flat out doesn’t make sense. Two things.

A.) If you’re mad about inflation (a position I understand), why would you vote for a guy whose economic plan is a direct assault on your buying power? And

B.) Guess what happens if foreigners start buying US exports? The value of the dollar goes… up.

I’ll throw in a third from Jordan Weissman:

**C.)**The bigger picture silliness here is that Trump’s entire approach of using a trade war to revive US industry failed, while Biden’s use of targeted subsidies has led to a factory construction boom. Yet Trump’s circle is still contemplating extreme measures to curb trade deficits.

The short is: Trump wants to raise taxes. That’s what a tariff is. It’s an additional tax on goods. Here’s a question: Will adding taxes to an item make it less expensive, or more expensive?

11.) NYT: Inside the Heritage Foundation’s Plans for ‘Institutionalizing Trumpism’

The article is an interview with Kevin D. Roberts, the president of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank. Roberts discusses his vision for "institutionalizing Trumpism" through Heritage's Project 2025, which aims to consolidate executive power, dismantle federal agencies, and vet government employees for the next Republican presidency.

[TS] Key points:

• Roberts has pivoted Heritage away from its traditionally hawkish foreign policy stance, opposing aid to Ukraine over concerns about spending and transparency.

• He praises Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban for policies on family, immigration, and education, dismissing concerns over democratic backsliding.

• Project 2025 seeks to enable rapid conservative policy implementation, including overturning Biden administration actions through executive orders.

• Roberts advocates reducing the federal workforce substantially, stripping employment protections from civil servants deemed obstructionist.

• He questions whether Biden legitimately won the 2020 election despite lack of evidence of widespread fraud.

• Roberts criticizes the Department of Justice for acting independently rather than as a presidential authority.

• He dismisses concerns from figures like Liz Cheney about threats Trump poses to democracy if re-elected.

Roberts is pushing an aggressive conservative agenda to dramatically reshape the federal government and consolidate power in the presidency unbounded by norms of democratic governance.

If you want to know more about Kevin Roberts, here’s some additional history of him by Jenny Cohn.

12.) Hamas' response to the U.S., Qatari & Egyptian ceasefire plan:

Per Barak Ravid (Axios):

Hamas has responded to a U.S., Qatari and Egyptian proposal for a hostage deal involving a ceasefire. However, Hamas' response indicates a lack of sincere interest in reaching an agreement:

• Hamas is only willing to release around 20 hostages out of the originally proposed number, citing "ridiculous excuses" about some hostages being dead or not in their custody.

• Hamas is demanding the release of more Palestinian prisoners per Israeli hostage, including more prisoners serving life sentences.

• Hamas wants to divide the deal into phases and impose stringent conditions, like IDF withdrawal from Gaza areas and free movement in Gaza from the first phase itself.

• An Israeli official stated that Hamas has essentially rejected the mediators' proposal outright and doubled/tripled its demands instead.

• The official concluded that Hamas is dragging its feet, not genuinely interested in a ceasefire deal, and may be hoping for further regional escalation instead of resolving the hostage situation.

Overall, Hamas' response indicates an unwillingness to negotiate in good faith over the hostage situation and ceasefire according to the terms proposed by the mediators.

13.) [TS] Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the NYTs seems to be auditioning for the role of Trump’s VP:

14.) Biden on another round of students loans: “If you entered repayment on your student loans over two decades ago but still have loans – we’re proposing that your debt is cancelled in its entirety.”

[CONTEXT] Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) estimates that the average beneficiary of this policy has a household income of $313,000:

[TS] I’ve covered this before, but this is another datapoint on why this doesn’t resonate with the vast majority of Americans. Politically, it’s not a winning issue.

15.) PUNCHBOWL NEWS / Sherman / Bresnahan: House Republicans plan to try to pass four bills this week to send aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, according to four sources familiar with the plan.

The fourth bill will include a ban on TikTok, a bill to sell of seized Russian assets, a Lend-Lease act for military aid, convertible loans for humanitarian relief and other provisions.

The GOP leadership will try to move this plan under one rule, said the sources.

[TS] I’m not going to hold my breath. It’s shameful that House R’s have refused to provide aid to Ukraine for over 6 months.

16.) KARK: Audit says Arkansas Gov’s (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) office potentially violated laws with $19,000 lectern purchase.

According to the report released on Monday afternoon, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’s office was potentially non-compliant with state law in seven areas, including paying for the lectern before it was delivered, capitalizing it as an operating expense and improper record keeping.

The governor’s office responded that it was “exonerated” by the audit’s outcome. It calls the audit “deeply flawed” in its response, an appendix to the report.