EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Trump Hush-Money Trial (Day 19): Prosecution rests after 200 pieces of evidence and testimony from 20 witnesses, including Michael Cohen; defense challenges Cohen's credibility.

2. Trump’s Social Media Losses: Trump's social media company reports a $327.6 million loss for Q1, despite a market cap of $6.6 billion.

3. ICC Warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas: The ICC seeks arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas leaders, citing war crimes, with Biden and others criticizing the ICC’s actions.

4. Threats in U.S. Politics: Threats against federal judges and Congress members have significantly increased, transforming the political landscape.

5. Trump's NRA Promise: Trump vows to repeal Biden's bipartisan gun control bill at an NRA event in Dallas, Texas.

NOT NEWS NEWS

1. UN Moment for Late Iranian President: A moment of silence is held for Ebrahim Raisi, the late President of Iran, at the UN Security Council.

2. Red Lobster’s Financial Woes: Red Lobster files for bankruptcy with $1 billion in debt after questionable financial maneuvers by its previous PE owner.

3. Austin's Job Growth: Austin, Texas leads the U.S. in post-pandemic job growth, significantly outpacing other major cities.

4. Mexico as Top U.S. Trade Partner: In 2023, Mexico surpasses China as America's largest trade partner, a position China held since 2006.

5. New Taiwanese President's Speech: Taiwanese President Lai urges China to cease its threats in his inauguration, calling for peace and stability.

6. Religious Nones among Gen Z: The proportion of religious "nones" is reportedly shrinking among Generation Z.

7. Daycare Regulations and Fertility: New research suggests daycare regulations on size, staffing, and educational requirements might impact fertility rates without demonstrated benefits.

8. U.S. Naval Capabilities Declining: The U.S. Navy faces challenges in shipbuilding due to deindustrialization, financial constraints, and labor shortages, with suggestions to outsource to Korea or Japan.

9. Political War Chests: April, cash on hand: Biden $192M Trump $49M

1.) Trump hush-money case (Day 19)

• Prosecution Rests: Presenting over 200 pieces of evidence and testimony from 20 witnesses including Michael Cohen.

• Defense Witnesses: Defense called their first two (and likely last two) witnesses aimed to discredit Cohen.

  • Robert Costello is a former legal advisor to Michael Cohen, who was once President Donald Trump's personal lawyer. He had a testy moment with the Judge:

    • Costello faced several objections from the prosecution which were sustained by Judge Merchan. After one of these rulings, Costello expressed his frustration by muttering "Jeez" under his breath. This response prompted Judge Merchan to dismiss the jurors temporarily and deliver a stern rebuke to Costello, emphasizing the importance of maintaining proper courtroom decorum. The judge admonished Costello against making dismissive comments or gestures like rolling his eyes or giving the judge 'side-eye', highlighting that only the judge has the authority to strike testimony. The tension escalated briefly when Judge Merchan questioned if Costello was "staring him down," leading to an extraordinary moment where reporters were temporarily cleared from the courtroom. After a brief pause, the proceedings resumed without further addressing the incident directly. Full court exchange:

*   The other witness was a paralegal.

• Trump declines to testify. [TS**]**For a man who complains an awfully lot about not being able to speak, he sure is terrified of the stand.

[RELATED] Here’s Trump’s list of allies who showed up to court today:

• AG Alan Wilson - Attorney General of South Carolina, a Republican figure and legal authority in the state.

• Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO) - U.S. Representative for Missouri, known for his conservative stance and legislative work.

• Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-GA) - U.S. Representative for Georgia, involved in legislative activities and known for his conservative views.

• Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL) - U.S. Representative for Illinois, an advocate of conservative policies.

• Rep. Keith Self (R-TX) - U.S. Representative from Texas, known for his work in Congress under the Republican banner.

• John Coale - An attorney who is a significant supporter of Trump, often involved in legal discussions related to Trump.

• Alan Dershowitz - A renowned lawyer and academic, frequently discusses constitutional issues and has defended Trump publicly.

• Will Scharf - A politician and former prosecutor, has connections with Trump through political and legal realms.

• Steve Witkoff - A real estate developer who has been a supporter of Trump, involved in the real estate industry like Trump.

• Bernie Kerik - Former NYPD Commissioner, pardoned by Trump, and has frequently defended Trump's policies and actions.

• Kash Patel - Former Pentagon official and Trump loyalist, known for his involvement in defense policies during the Trump administration.

• Vernon Jones - Former Democrat turned Republican supporter of Trump, known for his switch of party in support of Trump’s policies.

• Jerry Kassar - Minor party leader in New York, involved in local politics and supportive of Trump's policies.

• Chuck Zito - Actor and former bodyguard, known for his public support and defense of Trump.

[RELATED 2] Alina Habba on Fox says one of the biggest frustrations Trump has is a witness can something about him and he can’t say anything back:

[TS] He could testify, of course.

[UPDATE] Trump talks about Costello (a witness):

"You saw what happened to a highly respected lawyer today, Bob Costello. Wow."

Costello is a witness. Trump's gag order bars him from "making ... public statements about known or reasonably foreseeable witnesses."

2.) VARIETY: Trump’s Social Media Company Posts Q1 Revenue of $770,500 and Net Loss of $327.6 Million.

[TS] Yikes. To lose $327M in a single(!) quarter. That’s on pace for $1B in a year. The market cap is still $6.6B:

[RELATED] Trump posted new ad on Truth Social foreshadowing a second Trump term that says he will create a “UNIFIED REICH,” echoing Nazi Germany

The Campaign responds: “This was not a campaign video, it was created by a random account online and reposted by a staffer who clearly did not see the word, while the President was in court,” Karoline Leavitt, the campaign press secretary, said in a statement.

3.) WaPo: International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor seeks arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas leaders.

Just Security’s Ryan Goodman summarizes:

Israel Leaders:

Netanyahu and Gallant war crime of mass starvation, extermination, targeting civilians

Hamas Leaders:

Extermination, murder, taking of hostages, sexual assault

• Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader

• Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, the leader of the Al Qassem Brigades and better known as Mohammed Deif

• Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader

Official statement from ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan KC

[TS] Just a few oddities:

• They use “territory of Israel” and “State of Palestine.”

* The official name of Israel is the “State of Israel” (UN member name):

* “State of Palestine” is an aspirational description, since as everyone on all sides acknowledges, the Palestinians emphatically do not currently have a state.

• The warrant is titled, “Applications for arrest warrants in the situation in the State of Palestine,” even though its first half is all about Hamas crimes committed in Israel.

Seems like a “tell” that shows their hand…

[UPDATE] Biden and a bipartisan cohort of American political leaders condemn the ICC's actions against Israel.

“Let me be clear: whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security,” Biden said in a statement.

[UPDATE 2] Israel was in touch with the ICC chief prosecutor's office in recent weeks. Israeli officials were expecting to host ICC officials starting last evening for a preliminary visit to plan an official visit by Karim Khan.

His announcement was a complete surprise to Israel.

4.) NYT: ‘We’ll See You at Your House:’ How Fear and Menace Are Transforming Politics.

"Last year, more than 450 federal judges were targeted with threats, a roughly 150 percent increase from 2019... The U.S. Capitol Police investigated more than 8,000 threats to members of Congress last year, up more than 50 percent from 2018."

5.) Trump to NRA in Dallas Texas: “We will rollback every Biden attack on the 2nd amendment…”

Trump says he will work to repeal the bipartisan gun bill, which has helped drive a 20% reduction in urban gun murders.

Some other positions in the bill:

• Enhanced background checks for buyers under 21: This provision requires a more thorough investigation period for potential gun buyers under the age of 21, including checking juvenile and mental health records.

• Funding for mental health services and schools: The bill allocates billions of dollars towards mental health services and the safety of schools, which includes support for increased mental health resources and safety measures in educational environments.

• Support for red flag laws: It provides funding to help states implement red flag laws, which allow courts to temporarily remove firearms from individuals deemed to pose a threat to themselves or others.

• Crackdown on 'straw purchases': The legislation makes it a federal offense to purchase firearms on behalf of someone else (a straw purchase) and increases penalties for those who buy guns to sell to criminals.

• Closing the 'boyfriend loophole': The law includes measures to prevent individuals convicted of domestic violence against dating partners (previously, the law only covered spouses or co-parents) from purchasing guns.

• Clarification on firearm dealers: The bill clarifies the definition of who is considered to be engaged in the business of selling firearms, aimed at ensuring more sellers conduct background checks.

[TS] The bipartisan bill had overwhelming support from the public.

6.) The UN National Security Council held a Moment of Silence today for the Late President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi also known as the “Butcher of Tehran” who Died yesterday in a Helicopter Crash in Northwestern Iran.

[TS] Oy vey. Of course they would.

[RELATED] The US State Dept. sent its condolences on the death of Ebrahim Raisi.

[TS] While it’s pretty boilerplate, they should not have done this. Compare that to Clinton’s statement on the death of Pol Pot:

[RELATED 2] BBC runs article about “President Ebrahim Raisi's mixed legacy in Iran”

According to the article, he led the mass execution of political prisoners, oversaw an economic downturn, imposed harsh restrictions on speech, policed the dress code for women, and spent billions on terrorism abroad. But he did expedite some court cases. “Mixed legacy”

[RELATED 3] Breakdown of the power structure in Iran:

7.) [TS] Red Lobster’s bankruptcy filing is wild.

Per Trung Phan:

• $1B in debt, $30m in cash

• Previous PE owner sold land and leased it back to Red Lobster at “above market rates” [TS] Sounds more like they wanted it to fail.

• $20 Endless Shrimp cost it $11m but the interesting part is that one of the chain’s owners is Thai seafood firm Thai Union (which also owns Chicken By The Sea) and it may have used Endless shrimp to dump its own shrimp supply through the 578 restaurants in North America

• Thai Union became the only Red Lobster shrimp vendor, overcharging for shrimp and skipping quality reviews (Thai Union has written off its $500m+ investment)

• Red Lobster has had 5 CEO in the last 5 years

• Sales down 30% since 2019

8.) Austin Texas has the best growth in the country.

No other major American city even comes close to Austin's post-pandemic job growth rate—even other southern cities, even other Texas triangle cities. The closest US metro area is a full six percentage points behind. [TS] The YIMBYs are winning.

Chart by Joey Politano:

[RELATED] California has lost nearly all of the tech jobs it gained during the pandemic—employment is only 1.7k above pre-COVID levels and below Jan 2020 levels in web search, social media, and computer systems design

Meanwhile, the US excluding-CA has added 580k tech jobs since 2020.

9.) In 2023 Mexico surpassed China as America's largest trade partner. This is the first time since 2006 that China wasn't our largest trade partner (it was previously Canada).

10.) New Taiwanese President Lai in his inauguration speech, calls on china to: “Stop threatening taiwan politically and militarily, to take on global responsibility for the maintenance peace and stability, and to ensure the world is free from the fear of war.”

11.) The religious “nones” have hit a ceiling and the share of religious “nones” is shrinking among Gen Z.

12.) [TS] New paper shows that daycare regulations (size and staffing ratios; educational requirements) appear to affect fertility.

Also important in some places might be real estate requirements (ie you have to be on the first floor, which is most expensive)

Paper Title: ‘Childcare Regulation and the Fertility Gap’

[TS] There is other research that shows these rules significantly raise costs without any demonstrated benefit. For example in the IES:

13.) FP: The U.S. Navy Can’t Build Ships

Decades of deindustrialization and downsizing have left America without enough shipyards to build and maintain a fleet.

Deindustrialization, downsizing and an obsession with military presence in the Middle East have left the United States without shipyards to build and repair warships America can't match Chinese shipbuilding.

Financial constraints are forcing the Navy to cut purchases, delay modernization programs and retire ships early.

Labour shortages and supply chain issues are also limiting shipbuilding capabilities. China's shipbuilding potential is 232 times greater than that of the United States.

[TS] Seems like something we should probably fix. Short run solution would be to have Korea/Japan build ships for us.

14.) CNN: Biden’s political operation raises $51 million in April, a significant decline from March, but touts $192 million war chest.

April, cash on hand: Biden $192M Trump $49M