EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NEWS NEWS

1. VP Pick: Harris selects Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.

2. Ukraine Incursion: Ukrainian forces reportedly launch rare cross-border attack into Russia's Kursk region.

NOT NEWS NEWS

1. X Lawsuit: Elon Musk's X sues advertisers over alleged boycott following Twitter takeover.

2. Financial Resilience: New data challenges "paycheck to paycheck" narrative, showing most Americans can cover unexpected expenses.

3. Market Reaction: Recent poor jobs report impacts stock market, but economic indicators remain largely positive.

4. Chinese Naval Power: China unveils massive new amphibious assault ship, potentially changing maritime warfare dynamics.

5. Bangladesh Crisis: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigns and flees country amid violent protests.

1.) Harris selects MN Gov Tim Walz (pronounced “Walls”) as her VP.

Who is Tim Walz?

• Born in West Point, NE

• Raised on a farm, attended Chadron State College in NE, went to Minn State U for masters in education leadership

• Ex-teacher (coached HS football) & Army National Guard (24yrs)

• Former MN US House Rep (2007-2019)

  • Record was fairly centrist as a House Rep:

• MN Gov since 2019

[TS] His financial disclosure is kinda wild:

Tim Walz and his wife don't own a single stock. No mutual funds, no bonds, no book deals.

Policies as MN Gov

• Paid Family and Medical Leave program

• Legalization of recreational marijuana (signed into law in 2023)

• 100% clean energy standard by 2040

• Increased education funding, including for pre-K programs

• "Walz Checks" - direct payments to Minnesotans as COVID relief (known online as the “Timmy Stimmies”) [TS] I don’t know if that’s true…

• Raised minimum wage for state employees to $20/hour

• Expanded broadband access in rural areas

• Implemented a insulin safety net program

• EO to prohibit state funds for conversion therapy for minors

• Restored voting rights for felons who have completed their sentences

[TS] Generally speaking, most of these are popular initiatives. Also some not mentioned in the normal media:

• He’s a permitting reform champion:

  • Walz: “We have permitting that takes too long...and prohibits or makes more expensive doing renewable energy projects. I think that same thing applies to housing. We put up barriers to making it more affordable.”

  • He signed legislation to legalize single-stair apartment buildings in Minnesota last year (up to 75ft)

  • [TS] I’ve covered this in a previous Trumpdate centered around housing, specifically, but Minneapolis was not one of the blue cities where housing lagged national average.

• He signed the country’s most comprehensive Right-to-Repair law

  • These laws give consumers over where and how to repair their purchases (i.e. their property), reduce barriers to market entry, and promote competition and innovation

• Free breakfast and lunches for students (ie universal school meals)

[TS] What I think he’s going to get attacked for:

• His response to Minneapolis riots after George Floyd death.

  • [TS] While he did activate the MN National Guard and implement curfew, I think it’s fair to criticize him for not acting quickly or decisively enough to prevent property damage and violence. Keep in mind the damages:

    • 1,500 business and buildings damaged/burned (including a Minneapolis police station)

    • $500M in property damage statewide

    • 🚨[UPDATE ON THIS BELOW]🚨

• COVID 19 response/restrictions:

  • Lengthy school closures and business shutdowns

  • Hotline to call about neighbors (not a good look if his slogan on abortion is “mind your own damn business”)

• Under Tim Walz, Minnesota's health department rationed life-saving COVID drugs based on race:

  • "BIPOC status" earned more points than hypertension in the state's allocation system. It earned the same amount of points as age, BMI, diabetes, and kidney disease

* Minnesota cited FDA guidance to justify its scoring system, which was eventually discontinued.

• Refugee resettlement: Supporting refugee admissions to Minnesota

• Walz signed a bill in 2023 that expands state-funded healthcare coverage to undocumented immigrants in Minnesota:

  • The program extends Medical Assistance (Minnesota's Medicaid program) to all income-eligible residents regardless of immigration status.

  • It's estimated to cover about 40,000 undocumented immigrants.

  • The cost is projected to be around $300 million for the first two years.

• Generally moving left and endorsing progressive ideas as Gov (re: youth gender care)

  • He declared Minnesota to be a “trans refuge,” with a bill he signed in Apr 2023

    • Dubbed the Trans Refuge Bill by supporters, the law grants legal protection to children who travel to Minnesota for so-called gender affirming care, including puberty blockers, reconstructive genital surgery, and hormone therapy, as well as the medical practitioners who provide it. The law prohibits Minnesota courts or officials from complying with child removal requests, extraditions, arrests, or subpoenas related to a child’s sex-change procedures received in Minnesota, even if they’re a crime in another state.

• [NEW] Apparently, the new attacks on Walz coming from Vance are:

  • When his unit was deployed for Iraq he abandoned them (ie “didn’t want to answer the call”)

    • What’s the truth here? [TS] Let’s look at the timeline (per CNN):

      • February 2005: Tim Walz filed to run for Congress

      • May 2005: Tim Walz retires from the National Guard

      • July 2005: his unit receives alert orders for deployment

      • September 2005: unit goes to Camp Shelby to prepare for deployment

      • March 2006: unit deploys

      • [TS] So, this just isn’t a sound line of attack. I mean, the guy was in for 24(!) years. I don’t think he was running from anything. He reenlisted after 9/11 in ’01.

  • And he lied about rank/combat etc.

    • [TS] What’s the truth here? The Dossier has a fairly good breakdown. High-level bullets:

      • He misrepresented his military service when running for Congress, implying he served in combat roles.

      • Walz allowed or encouraged media to report he had fought in the War on Terror, when he only had a six-month deployment to Italy.

        • Bloomberg edited their piece to change “Iraq” to “Italy.”

        • [UPDATE] Some additional info casting doubt into claim he went to Italy to support Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). Pentagon says deployments to Italy did NOT support OEF & are ineligible for the Global War on Terror Expeditionary Medal.

      • He claimed to have "just returned from fighting the war on terrorism" during a 2004 incident involving President Bush's visit.

      • Walz continues to embellish his service record, recently claiming he "carried weapons of war in war."

      • Veterans from his former unit have criticized him for misrepresenting his service.

      • [TS] It does seem like he has skirted around this issue, never really confirming or denying and letting the misrepresentations from the media stand.

[RELATED]

Harris announced the selection on Tue morning. Her and Walz did a rally in Pennsylvania.

[TS] Overall, Walz’s speech was good but he did make a comment about JD Vance + a couch that I think was dumb (could have left it as a regular sentence/phrase instead of piling on with “see what I did there” which then you can’t defend as just a regular saying + explaining a joke is always worse). Sure it’ll play well “online” but there is no reason to do it. It’s a lie, it’s juvenile, and it’s off brand (especially for a guy like Walz who is supposed to be this “decent midwestern guy”). If you’re talking about this line instead of the speech itself, was it really worthwhile?

[RELATED 2]

He’s getting endorsements from a wide ranging base (AOC, Joe Manchin etc.).

[UPDATE ON WALZ’S HANDLING OF BLM RIOTS]

Per ABC News: Despite new criticism, Trump told Walz in 2020 he was 'very happy' with his handling of George Floyd protests

ABC News has obtained audio where then President Trump expressed support for Minnesota Governor Tim Walz's handling of the George Floyd protests.

Trump told a group of governors that Walz "dominated," and praised his leadership as an example for other states to follow.

Trump called Walz “an excellent guy.”

"I was very happy with the last couple of days, Tim. You called up big numbers and the big numbers knocked them out so fast it was like bowling pins."

[TS] Yowza. This basically takes away a huge attack from Trump and co.

[SEMI-RELATED]

[TS] Trump is not doing well. Really wants Biden back:

2.) BBC: Russia says Ukrainian troops crossed into its territory and launched ‘massive attack’

• Ukrainian forces launched a rare cross-border attack into Russia's Kursk region, near the town of Sudzha.

• Russia declared a state of emergency, reporting civilian casualties and evacuations.

• Fighting occurred near a major gas transit point and a nuclear power plant.

• The scale and objectives of the incursion remain unclear, with conflicting reports.

• Ukraine has not officially commented, but some officials suggested it aims to divert Russian resources.

• The US denied prior knowledge of the attack.

• The incursion marks a significant escalation, potentially impacting the conflict's dynamics.

[TS] So, can we now ignore Russia’s escalation threats? Hard to see how this doesn’t cause a decline in the status and prestige of Russia.

Summarized well here:

So apparently the official Ukrainian army can full on occupy Kursk Oblast and Russia still won't make good on it's empty nuclear sabre rattling or escalate in any way.

But using long range missiles on Russian air bases would definitely trigger WW3 or something. Seems legit.

QUICK BITES

1. WaPo: WaPo got Vance’s texts to far-right Charles Johnson. “Dude I won’t even take calls from Ukraine,” he told Johnson in October, about three weeks after House Republicans blocked additional aid to help Kyiv repel the Russian invasion. “Two very senior guys reached out to me. The head of their intel. The head of the Air Force. Bitching about F16s.”

1.   [TS] How did they get those texts? Seems kind of funny if Johnson himself gave the info.

2. There has been an outpouring of “Wow Harris really screwed up picking Walz” from the right. However, a counterpoint to that: Ben Jacobs reporting in NY Magthat “Republican operatives were overjoyed that Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz today.” [TS] But there’s the kicker:

1.   These half-dozen Republican operatives are so overjoyed about the Walz pick that not a single one of them was willing to go on the record? Seems odd, no?

3. The Heritage Foundation is now delaying the publication of their Project 2025 book--for which J.D. Vance wrote the forward--until after the election.

4. EIA weekly data suggests new all-time US oil production record of 13.4 million barrels per day. Put another way - the US produces give or take 13% of global supply.

5. Democrats are quietly purging their extremists:

1.   "Squad" member Rep. Cori Bush has just lost her primary in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District to St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell, a moderate Democrat.

2.   [TS] Of note here (ie “internet is not real life”). Bush had 845k followers and Bell has 9k. Also of note: The GOP can't exactly follow suit, because its main extremist is the guy in charge of the party.

6. Arizona AG announces that Jenna Ellis has agreed to cooperate with prosecutors in the fake electors criminal case. [TS] Nine felonies to a complete walk. Seems like quite the deal. I hope and trust she has something substantial to offer in return.

7. Loraine Pellegrino — one of 11 Arizona Republicans who acted as false electors for Trump — has pleaded guilty to a reduced state charge, per new filings on the docket.

8. By a 10-5 vote, the en banc Fourth Circuit upholds Maryland’s assault weapons ban against Second Amendment challenge. [TS] Hard not to see this opinion teeing up Supreme Court review.

9. FBI agents execute search warrant on Tennessee Congressman Andy Ogles (R), NewsChannel 5 confirms.

1.   In statement, Maury County Republican says FBI agents seized his cell phone as part of investigation into his campaign finances

3.) AP: Elon Musk’s X sues advertisers over alleged ‘massive advertiser boycott’ after Twitter takeover

• Elon Musk's X (formerly Twitter) has sued a group of advertisers, including the World Federation of Advertisers and companies like Unilever, Mars, CVS Health, and Orsted.

• The lawsuit alleges a "massive advertiser boycott" that cost X billions in revenue and violated antitrust laws.

• X claims the Global Alliance for Responsible Media, a brand safety initiative, helped coordinate an advertising pause after Musk's acquisition of Twitter in 2022.

• Musk declared "now it is war" on X, citing frustration with previous attempts at reconciliation.

• X CEO Linda Yaccarino referenced evidence from a U.S. House Judiciary Committee hearing, suggesting an organized "systematic illegal boycott" against X.

• The lawsuit was filed in a federal court in Texas.

[TS] This is just colossally stupid. You’re going to sue people for not advertising on your platform? Seems like a great way to deter people from advertising on your platform in the future. Why would you advertise on a platform that’ll sue you if you pull your ads?

And secondly. Elon was on a stage recently with CNBC where he told advertisers to, “Go fuck yourself.” Not a great message to advertisers…

Thirdly, hard to claim you care about free speech and the free market if you do something like this.

4.) Most Americans are not living “paycheck to paycheck.”

I’ve covered this before, but JP Morgan Chase Institute released some new data that really cuts against the "paycheck to paycheck" narrative. A few bullets from the article:

1. 77 percent of low-income households can cover an unexpected $400 expense, though many must cover it with disposable income or short-term credit.

2. 43 percent of low-income households unable to weather small expense shocks might be able to pay them with access to additional credit.

3. The share of households that cannot cover an unexpected expense remained steady throughout 2022 and 2023.

4. White and Asian households, middle-aged households, and multi-person households are better able to cover an unexpected expense than their counterparts.

5.) A recent poor jobs report rattled markets (S&P 500 only up 10% YTD, losing 6% in the last 5 days)

[TS] I think this is really overblown. People are asking the Fed for an emergency rate cut. That’s absurd. It’s not their job to keep stock prices high. There is very little reason to believe that the US economy is rapidly deteriorating. Here’s a few stats:

• The three-month moving average of nonfarm payroll gains is 170,000. That is more than enough to sustain the expansion.

Labor demand is still strong:

Layoffs are below their pre-pandemic average:

Income growth is solid:

Consumers are still spending:

However, hiring is deteriorating:

6.) The Telegraph: China’s enormous new invasion mothership is rewriting the rules of war. Look out, Taiwan

China's new Type 076 Yulan-class amphibious assault ship, which is larger than any existing amphibious vessel and features an electromagnetic aircraft catapult. This innovation blurs the line between amphibious ships and aircraft carriers. The ship can launch both crewed and uncrewed aircraft, potentially including stealth drones. Its rapid construction demonstrates China's growing naval capabilities. While the design's effectiveness remains uncertain, it represents a significant development in maritime warfare and raises concerns about potential invasions, particularly regarding Taiwan.

7.) WaPo: Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigns and flees country

Hasina’s resignation, announced by Gen. Waker-Uz-Zaman, comes after hundreds have been killed in clashes between protesters and security forces in recent weeks.