Political GuyentistThe delegation
A woman in a brown headscarf walks past a wall mural of the Statue of Liberty draped in an American flag.
01 / The delegationNew York · Tehran

Iran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the U.S. and will fly home Tuesday.

Iran's state news agency IRNA said late Sunday, Sept. 27, that the delegation in New York “has no plans for negotiations with the United States” and that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi would fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29. Mediators are still working on a deal.

Photograph: The Guardian

IRNA says Iran's terms, seven conditions for ending the war, were passed to Washington via a Qatari mediator, and Iran is waiting for an answer. A White House official says Trump is open to sanctions relief in exchange for concrete progress on Iran's nuclear program.

September 29, 2026 · Seven stories, illustrated

From the June memorandum to a flight home
  1. June 17

    The U.S. and Iran sign a memorandum, brokered by Pakistan with Qatar as a guarantor

  2. July 8

    The memorandum collapses when Iran fires on commercial ships in Hormuz

  3. Sept. 26

    Trump rejects Iran's seven-day plan to reopen Hormuz

  4. Sept. 29

    Araghchi is due to fly home, IRNA says

  1. 7 conditions

    Iran's terms for ending the war, passed to Washington via a Qatari mediator; Iran is waiting for an answer

  2. At least 20

    documented rounds of direct or mediated talks since the 2015 nuclear deal; only one document signed

  3. $12 billion or more

    in frozen assets Iran wants released, one of the seven conditions

  4. Roughly 20%

    of the world's oil and gas moved through Hormuz before the war

Araghchi was still in New York on Monday, Sept. 28, meeting Qatari mediators on a revised version of Iran's seven-day plan, Reuters reports. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Trump sees renewed bombing as likely after November.

One source

IRNA cited one unnamed “source close to the delegation,” not the foreign ministry. Reuters reports real power sits with the Revolutionary Guard and the security council.

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Motorcyclists ride past a street display of two missiles beneath a large portrait of a cleric on a city square.
02 / The yieldWashington · the bond market

The 10-year Treasury yield passed 5.2%, near a 24-year high, as oil rose after Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz offer.

The yield passed 5.2% on Monday, Sept. 28, close to its highest level in 24 years. It is the interest rate investors charge to lend Washington money for 10 years, and home-loan rates track it.

Photograph: The Wall Street Journal

Worries about deficits and inflation added to the pressure on bonds, and buyers got pickier at last week's Treasury sales.

Last week's Treasury sales, then and now
  1. 5.2%

    10-year yield passed on Monday, Sept. 28, up from 4.79% on Sept. 4

  2. 5.033%

    5-year sale, Sept. 23: highest yield since June 2006, up from 4.393% in August

  3. 5.085%

    7-year sale, Sept. 24: highest since 1993, up from 4.512% in August

  4. 15.8%

    of the 5-year left with primary dealers, about $11 billion; they took 12.5% of the 7-year, in line with recent sales

The 30-year Treasury bond yield is above 5.5%. Treasury sells 10-year notes again on Wednesday, Oct. 7, and 30-year bonds on Thursday, Oct. 8.

Mortgages lag

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.03% on Thursday, Sept. 24, up from 6.30% a year earlier. That weekly survey barely overlaps the Sept. 28 jump in the 10-year yield, so the Oct. 1 reading is the first to fully show it.

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Two bright projectiles leave smoke trails across a dark night sky beneath another distant light.
03 / The strikeStrait of Hormuz

An Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying eight U.S. Marines on Sept. 14, and the Pentagon never announced it.

Three U.S. officials told NBC News on Sunday, Sept. 27, that the missile hit the ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, Sept. 14. That report, 13 days after the strike, is the first public account of the attack.

Photograph: NBC News

Central Command declined to comment on Monday, Sept. 28, ABC News reported. Who owned and flagged the ship is still undisclosed.

Eight Marines, and 13 days before a public account

8 Marines seven enlisted and one officer, from a Marine landing unit

  1. Sept. 14

    The missile hits the ship in the Strait of Hormuz

  2. Nearly 10 days later

    The Pentagon's casualty database adds eight wounded

  3. Sept. 27

    Three U.S. officials tell NBC News, the first public account

  4. Sept. 28

    Central Command declines to comment, ABC News reports

How the al-Asad injury count grewafter Iran's 2020 missile strike, one square per reported injury

Jan. 8, 2020 0 injuries, per Trump and commanders
Jan. 16 11
Jan. 30 64

The Marines had smoke inhalation and possible traumatic brain injuries. Officials said none were seriously hurt and all returned to duty soon after; they have not said whether the count from this attack will change.

Ship unnamed

Officials said it was not a U.S. Navy vessel and would not name it. The UK's maritime security office logged a commercial ship struck by “an unknown projectile” that day, with no injuries reported, which does not match the officials' account.

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04 / The bailRAF Fairford · England

UK police released the five men arrested near RAF Fairford on bail; none has been charged, and Iran denies a role.

British police released the five men on bail on Monday, Sept. 28. They have not been charged, are on bail with strict conditions and remain under investigation. Fairford is a base U.S. bombers use to strike Iran.

Photograph: TIME

Iran's London embassy “categorically rejects and strongly condemns the recent unfounded and malicious speculations.” Trump said: “I'm surprised that they released them. I wouldn't have done that.”

Britain's terrorism arrests to March 2025, one square per arrest
  • 109 bailed or released under investigation (47%)
  • 71 charged (31%)
  • 45 released without charge (19%)
  • 7 not in those three groups
  1. 5 men

    British, from London, aged 23 to 25; police found them with three vans

  2. Not charged

    on bail with strict conditions and still under investigation

  3. Iran, Russia or militants

    possible links detectives are looking at; the militant groups are ones not tied to any government

  4. Sept. 27

    the U.S. Embassy in London told Americans in Britain to be cautious

Bail is not freedom

The men must report back to a police station, and officers can re-arrest them without a warrant if they skip that date or break a condition. Police have not said when they must return. The 14-day limit on holding terrorism suspects without charge belongs to a separate power that police have not said they used.

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Pickup trucks stand in a row on a dealership lot beneath a tall Ford Trucks sign.
05 / The mileageWashington · the long read

The final fuel economy rule sets a 34.9 mpg fleet average for 2031, down from Biden's 50.4.

The Transportation Department released its final replacement for Biden's 2024 standards on Monday, Sept. 28. Each automaker's lineup must average 34.9 miles per gallon by model year 2031; the fleet averaged 30.1 mpg in model year 2024, per Roll Call.

Photograph: ABC News

The administration says new cars will cost $1,300 less on average and consumers will save $138 billion over five years.

Miles per gallon, on one scale from zero
fleet average, model year 2024 (Roll Call)30.1 mpg
new rule, model year 203134.9 mpg
Biden's 2024 rule, model year 203150.4 mpg

All three bars start at zero on one scale.

  1. $1,300

    less per new car, the administration says; December's proposal said $930, with no published explanation for the jump

  2. $4.47 a gallon

    average gas price Monday, per AAA, up from $2.98 before the war with Iran

  3. 2% a year

    gains Biden's rule required for 2027–2031; December's proposal cut that to 0.25% to 0.5%

  4. Ten model years

    the rule rewrites, back to 2022; the law caps a standard at five, the likeliest hook for a court challenge (DLA Piper)

Department officials project the new-car mix flipping from 70% light trucks to 70% passenger cars. The rule also drops the incentives that rewarded electric vehicles. Transportation produces 28% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, per The Guardian.

A standard, not a measure

The 30.1 mpg figure is what the fleet averaged in model year 2024. The 34.9 and 50.4 figures are targets each automaker's lineup would have to average by model year 2031.

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06 / The paperworkSix states · the long read

Six Republican-led states will make Medicaid enrollees who say they are too sick to work prove it with documents.

Medicaid work requirements from Trump's 2025 tax law start Jan. 1, 2027. In the first year, federal rules let states take people at their word when they claim a medical-frailty exemption. Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio will demand documentation instead: they are declining an option, not breaking the rule.

“Self-attestation is fraud-by-design,” says Jonathan Ingram of the Foundation for Government Accountability. KFF's Jennifer Tolbert says people too sick to work often can't afford the doctor visit that would prove it; advocates warn this will block new applicants.

The six states, and the months of work an applicant must prove before applying
  • Arkansas
  • Idaho
  • Indiana
  • New Hampshire
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio

Applicants must prove compliance for the month before they apply; Idaho and Indiana require three months.

  1. July 29

    A federal judge refuses to pause the rules while 25 states sue

  2. Jan. 1, 2027

    The work requirement starts; the six states demand documentation for frailty claims

  3. Jan. 1, 2028

    Every state must verify exemptions with data or documents

  1. $887 billion

    federal Medicaid spending cut over a decade by the 2025 law's changes, CBO estimated

  2. 7.5 million

    fewer people with health insurance under the whole package, CBO estimated

  3. 5.3 million

    more uninsured from the work requirement alone, CBO's estimate per KFF

A benchmark, not a count

No state publishes how many people it exempts as medically frail. In Arkansas's 2018 work requirement the share flagged as frail rose from 9% to 14%, per KFF. Applied to the six states' about 2.28 million expansion enrollees, that would mean roughly 205,000 to 320,000 people.

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07 / The loopAI labs · the long read

Geoffrey Hinton and top scientists at OpenAI, Anthropic and Microsoft call for urgent oversight of AI that improves itself.

A white paper released Monday, Sept. 28, warns that AI that automates its own development could set off an “intelligence explosion”: each new system builds a better one, faster than people can check the work. In one scenario, a year of AI progress happens in weeks; the authors say that outcome is far from certain.

The authors, including Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark, point to evidence that systems at OpenAI and Anthropic already do some of those companies' own research, and warn the “window for action may close” once AI starts improving itself.

Anthropic research led by AI under light human supervision, one square per percentage point
  • 1% in March 2026
  • 26% by August 2026, including March's 1%
  1. Over 80%

    of Anthropic's merged code written by AI by May 2026, up from low single digits in January 2025

  2. 3.1

    AI agent-workdays per human workday at OpenAI's research arm by mid-August 2026

  3. More than half

    of its successful 4-to-8-hour agent tasks still needed a human to step in

  4. Four limits

    computing capacity, automation challenges, diminishing returns and slow training runs

These are the labs' own numbers. Researchers have asked labs to slow down before: the Future of Life Institute's open letter of March 22, 2023 now has 33,705 signatures, and no lab paused.

No federal law

California's SB 1047 was vetoed in September 2024, and Biden's October 2023 executive order on AI safety was rescinded in January 2025. Congress has passed no AI law, so no federal statute governs AI that improves itself.

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