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China’s nominal exchange rate held steady while its real trade-weighted rate fell 14%

Political Guyentist · August 1, 20261 min read

GAVEKAL DRAGONOMICS

China gained price competitiveness through domestic deflation, not a broad devaluation of the renminbi.
Currently showing Price adjustment, not broad devaluation
Price adjustment, not broad devaluation
Price adjustment, not broad devaluationHorizontal dumbbell chart comparing three exchange-rate measures rebased to March 2022. The BIS real effective rate ends at 86, while nominal measures remain near 100.Price adjustment, not broad devaluationExchange-rate indices, March 2022 = 100 · reported 2025 endpointsBaseline 100BIS real effective rateNominal effective rateCFETS RMB index≈80 low86 · 14% lower100.598.480859095100Index, March 2022 = 100Source: Gavekal Dragonomics summary; BIS and CFETS · ≈80 is an approximate, undated 2025 low