News news2 stories
Ongoing3 earlier updates13 days
This story has run 4 times over 13 days, starting Jul 23.
The vessel reported damage off Oman while negotiators worked on a new arrangement for commercial shipping through the strait.
The chokepointMap
One strait, a quarter of the world's seaborne oil
A cargo ship was hit somewhere in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is the only sea exit from the Persian Gulf, which is why one damaged ship is a story about everybody's energy supply.
A globe centred on the Strait of Hormuz, showing the strait as the only sea exit from the Persian Gulf and the approximate area in which a cargo ship was reported struck. Places marked: Strait of Hormuz; Cargo ship struck (approximate, within about 70 km); Muscat. Drawn across the map: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — standing feature of the geography. Figures: Oil through Hormuz in 2025, 20m barrels a day; of global seaborne oil trade, 25%; of global LNG trade, 19%; barrels a day the alternative pipelines could take, 3.5m–5.5m.
Route through the geographyRing = approximate positionAll routes here are schematic
What this map shows, as data
| Place | Role | Position | What the reporting says | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | Chokepoint | 26.60°N, 56.50°E | About 20 million barrels of oil a day passed through in 2025 — roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. | Wikidata Q79883, Strait of Hormuz |
| Cargo ship struck | Reported struck | 26.60°N, 56.50°E — approximate, within about 70 km | A cargo ship reported being hit by an unknown projectile. UKMTO did not identify the vessel, its flag or its cargo. No source identified who fired. | AP: Iran and Oman make progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz |
| Muscat | Place | 23.59°N, 58.38°E | Oman and Iran reported progress on a new arrangement for shipping through the strait; the terms were unsettled. | Natural Earth (public domain) |
| Drawn | Kind | Status | What the reporting says | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz | Route | Standing feature of the geography | Everything leaving the Persian Gulf by sea passes the strait. The Gulf has no other sea exit. Route is schematic: the reporting does not give an alignment. | Wikidata Q79883, Strait of Hormuz |
| Figure | Value | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil through Hormuz in 2025 | 20m barrels a day | — | IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet |
| of global seaborne oil trade | 25% | — | IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet |
| of global LNG trade | 19% | — | IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet |
| barrels a day the alternative pipelines could take | 3.5m–5.5m | IEA estimate. Less than a third of what the strait carries. | IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet |
Where every coordinate came from
- Coordinates: Wikidata Q79883 (Strait of Hormuz), 26.60°N 56.50°E.
- Position not published. The reporting places the strike only “in the Strait of Hormuz off Oman”, so it is drawn as a 70 km uncertainty ring on the strait's published centre rather than as a pin.
- Coordinates: Natural Earth 1:10m populated places, Admin-0 capital “Muscat”.
- Schematic. Drawn as two great-circle segments between open water in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, through the strait's published centre. Not a traffic-separation-scheme alignment.
Sources: AP: Iran and Oman make progress on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz · IEA: Strait of Hormuz factsheet · Wikidata Q79883, Strait of Hormuz · Natural Earth (public domain)
Pipelines could take about a quarter of what Hormuz carries
One damaged ship does not move global supply. The reason the strait matters is that there is nowhere else to put the oil.
The numbers
| Millions of barrels a day | Crude oil | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Through Hormuz, 2025 | 20 | roughly 25% of seaborne oil trade |
| Pipelines could redirect | 5.5 | IEA high estimate; 3.5 low |
Related reading
Iran and Oman reported progress on safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes, but the terms remained unsettled. AP reported that one version would use an Iranian-controlled inbound route and an Omani-controlled outbound route with security fees; a U.S. official rejected any arrangement requiring Iranian approval or charges. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come “today or tomorrow.”
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Elections10 races
The midterms · 90 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 87%, Kalshi 84%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 45%, Kalshi 46%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 3.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 86% | 84% | 44% | 45% |
| 6 days ago | 86% | 84% | 44% | 46% |
| 5 days ago | 86% | 83% | 44% | 47% |
| 4 days ago | 86% | 84% | 45% | 46% |
| 3 days ago | 86% | 83% | 45% | 46% |
| 2 days ago | 86% | 83% | 45% | 47% |
| yesterday | 87% | 83% | 45% | 47% |
| today | 87% | 84% | 45% | 46% |
3 closest races
eOhio governorone book
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Vivek Ramaswamy (R) faces Amy Acton (D).
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Ohio governor. Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Kalshi 51.5%; Amy Acton (D): Kalshi 48.5%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi Amy Acton · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.0% 49.0% 6 days ago 51.0% 50.0% 5 days ago 52.0% 47.0% 4 days ago 53.0% 47.0% 3 days ago 53.0% 49.0% 2 days ago 51.0% 48.0% yesterday 52.0% 47.0% today 51.5% 48.5% kOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.0%; Jon Husted (R): Kalshi 47%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 52%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days agoPolymarket$70.3K49.5%Kalshi244K contracts · 52%/54%52.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.5% 52% 48% 6 days ago 51.5% 53% 47% 5 days ago 51.5% 53% 48% 4 days ago 51.5% 54% 48% 3 days ago 50.5% 53% 47% 2 days ago 50.5% 54% 48% yesterday 50.5% 52% 48% today 50.5% 53% 47% gTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ken Paxton 54% · James Talarico 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ken Paxton (R)7 days agoPolymarket$359K53.5%Kalshi4.0M contracts · 54%/55%55.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppJames Talarico (D)7 days agoPolymarket$300K46%Kalshi3.2M contracts · 46%/47%47%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 55.0% 46.0% 47.0% 6 days ago 52.5% 53.0% 48.5% 48.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 55.0% 49.5% 47.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 54.0% 47.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 52.5% 55.0% 47.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 52.5% 55.0% 47.5% 47.0% yesterday 51.5% 55.0% 48.5% 47.0% today 51.5% 54.5% 48.5% 46.5%
The other 7 races
Senate4 of 6
hAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 56.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 50%, Kalshi 46%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 52% · Dan Sullivan 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$184K60.5%Kalshi47.9K contracts · 55%/57%54.0%venue gap6.5pp7-day move-9.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$111K40%Kalshi52.6K contracts · 44%/48%—venue gap—7-day move+10.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 54% 40.0% — 6 days ago 60.5% 57% 40.5% 47% 5 days ago 60.5% 57% 40.5% 45% 4 days ago 52.5% 57% 44.5% 44% 3 days ago 57.5% 54% 44.5% 47% 2 days ago 56.0% 57% 44.5% 43% yesterday 55.5% 57% 44.5% 44% today 51.5% 56% 50.0% 46% iIowa Senateone book
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Kalshi 43%. Full history is in the table below.
4 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 3–5 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Kalshi 4 days ago — 46% 3 days ago — 47% 2 days ago 59.0% 46% yesterday 59.0% 41% today 55.5% 43% fMaine Senateone book
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Kalshi 63.5%; Susan Collins (R): Kalshi 36.5%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.0% 37.0% 6 days ago 64.0% 37.0% 5 days ago 63.0% 38.0% 4 days ago 64.0% 37.0% 3 days ago 64.0% 35.0% 2 days ago 64.0% 37.0% yesterday 63.0% 37.0% today 63.5% 36.5% jMichigan Senate primaryMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; Mike Rogers (R) is the Republican nominee.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate primary
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate primary. Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 99.95%; Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 98.45%, Kalshi 97.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 98%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)*7 days agoPolymarket$1.3M94.5%Kalshi8.9M contracts · 98%/98%83.0%venue gap12pp7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate primary, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Mike Rogers · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi 7 days ago 99.30% 94.50% 83.00% 6 days ago 99.40% 96.55% 95.90% 5 days ago 99.25% 96.85% 97.10% 4 days ago 99.15% 97.20% 97.50% 3 days ago 99.30% 98.70% 97.60% 2 days ago 99.50% 98.85% 98.30% yesterday 99.95% 98.10% 94.20% today 99.95% 98.45% 97.55%
Governors3 of 4
mGeorgia governorone book
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Kalshi 58.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Kalshi 42.5%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.0% — 6 days ago 58.0% — 5 days ago 59.0% — 4 days ago 59.0% — 3 days ago 59.0% — 2 days ago 59.0% — yesterday 59.0% — today 58.5% 42.5% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Rick Jackson. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
nNevada governorone book
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).
lWisconsin governorone book
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
Francesca Hong (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Wisconsin governor. Tom Tiffany (R): Kalshi 99.35%; Francesca Hong (D): Kalshi 85.5%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. Day Tom Tiffany · Kalshi Francesca Hong · Kalshi 7 days ago 98.80% 94.4% 6 days ago 98.70% 94.0% 5 days ago 98.80% 95.2% 4 days ago 98.80% 95.5% 3 days ago 99.70% 96.0% 2 days ago 98.30% 94.7% yesterday 98.30% 81.0% today 99.35% 85.5%
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news3 stories
Departures rose 55% from fiscal 2024; GAO says FEMA made 2025–26 staffing decisions without measuring them against mission needs.
Two figures: more than 4,300 FEMA employees departed in fiscal 2025, against an average headcount of 25,134 across the same year.
One in six of the agency, out the door in a year
Departures rose 55% from fiscal 2024. GAO says FEMA made its 2025 and 2026 staffing decisions without comparing capacity against mission needs.
The numbers
| Measure | Employees | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Left the agency | 4,300 | employees departed in fiscal 2025 — the count is a floor, not a total |
| Average headcount | 25,134 | employees on average across fiscal 2025 |
Related reading
GAO’s June 2026 review leaves the Defense Department with 53 priority recommendations still open, concentrated in military readiness, weapons acquisition and modernization, and financial and fraud-risk management.
Wyden says CBS pulled the segment; CBS says it was not ready and calls claims of suppression “categorically false.”
Two bars: more than $1 billion in Epstein-related transactions processed by JPMorgan Chase, and $170 million reported by Bank of America tied to Leon Black.
What Wyden's report says the two banks moved
Bank of America later concluded the transactions it reported had no apparent economic, business or lawful purpose.
The numbers
| Millions of dollars | Epstein-related transactions | Note |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | 1,000 | reported as more than $1 billion |
| Bank of America | 170 | tied to Leon Black |
The 2025 resident survey and the 2024 plebiscite measured different populations, producing statehood figures of 32% and 58.6%.
What else the survey found
- 42% identified with no political party, nearly twice the 22% aligned with the pro-statehood Partido Nuevo Progresista.
- 72% said Puerto Rico’s government has little or no power to make independent decisions without federal intervention.
- 68% said the federally appointed Fiscal Oversight Board has more power over Puerto Rico’s laws than its elected government.
A stacked bar of statehood opinion among Puerto Rico residents: 32 percent support, 31 percent oppose and 37 percent neither support nor oppose.
A third for statehood, a third against, a third neither
LabPOP surveyed 1,266 adult residents in a stratified probability sample between April and November 2025.
The numbers
| Category | Support | Oppose | Neither |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puerto Rico residents | 32% | 31% | 37% |
Two bars: 32 percent statehood support among all adult residents in the 2025 LabPOP survey, and 58.6 percent among completed ballots in the 2024 plebiscite.
Two statehood figures that are not measuring the same people
The gap between them is a denominator, not a change of mind. Nothing here is a time series.
The numbers
| Share supporting statehood | Support for statehood | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 resident survey | 32% | all adult residents, weighted |
| 2024 plebiscite | 58.6% | completed ballots only |