The bill threatens tariffs of up to 100% against major buyers of Russian energy—but it still needs the House, and enforcement would hinge on waivers and buyer compliance.
Currently showing Russia's oil-export exposure
Russia's oil-export exposure
Would the sanctions work?
Not immediately. Senate passage does not create tariffs: the House must pass the bill, the president must sign it and the administration must decide whom to penalize. Broad presidential waivers could substantially limit enforcement. If Washington actually forced India and China to choose between Russian oil and U.S. market access, Moscow could lose revenue or offer deeper discounts. But removing a supplier responsible for roughly one-tenth of world crude exports could also lift global prices, and Russia has already shown it can reroute oil through intermediaries and a shadow fleet. Natural gas is harder to redirect because pipelines and LNG terminals constrain where it can go.