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Ongoing5 earlier updates

This story has run 6 times over 18 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade — this issue

Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade

Political Guyentist · August 10, 20261 min read

NYT

The New York Times reports that Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until Washington unfreezes its assets, lifts sanctions and ends the naval blockade.

Figure 1Chart

However you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four months

About 20 million barrels a day moved through Hormuz, and Iran's frozen assets are put at $100–120 billion — an estimate the reporting itself calls contested. Each bar runs from the day the value of the undelivered oil reaches $100 billion to the day it reaches $120 billion; the heavier row is the $80-a-barrel price the story assumes. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions, not a forecast, and nothing in it says the strait stays shut.

However you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four monthsFour bars, one for each assumed oil price, each spanning the days over which the value of oil not moving through the Strait of Hormuz — 20 million barrels a day at that price — passes $100 billion and then $120 billion, the contested range given for Iran's frozen assets. At $60 a barrel that window is days 83 to 100; at $80 a barrel, the price the story assumes, days 63 to 75; at $100 a barrel, days 50 to 60; at $140 a barrel, days 36 to 43. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions, not a forecast.
The numbers
However you price it, Iran's ask is spent inside four months
Days after the strait closesDays to cover the askNote
$60 a barrel83–100$1.2 billion a day
$80 a barrel63–75$1.6 billion a day — the price the story assumes
$100 a barrel50–60$2.0 billion a day
$140 a barrel36–43$2.8 billion a day
Source: POLI arithmetic — 20 million barrels a day × the row's price × days, to the nearest day — against a contested $100–120B estimate of Iran's frozen assets; flow figure from EIA estimatesPOLI
Chart · pipeline render▲ label over mark

How fast a Hormuz closure costs more than Iran's frozen assets

How fast a Hormuz closure costs more than Iran's frozen assets~$1.6B/day at $80/bbl · cumulative cost crosses Iran's ~$100–120B ask in ~60–75 days050100150200Cumulative value of disrupted oil ($B)0306090120Days since Hormuz closureIran frozen assets ~$100–120B (est., contested)Day 0 · $0$48B~$120B$144BCrossover ~Day 60–75sooner if oil spikesIllustrative scenario at $80/bbl · frozen-assets range contested · not a forecast
Source: Iran, Holding Firm to Hormuz, Pushes for Return to June MOUPOLI

What we’re less sure of6 of 7 claims