Political Guyentist
Political GuyentistTuesday, August 11, 2026
28 stories·2 news1 not news4 briefs21 elections·1 contested·15 cut
1uscontested

Trump orders the childhood MMR shot split into three injections at three separate visits

The executive order tells federal health agencies to recommend fewer childhood shots and to break the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine across three appointments.

What Trump's January schedule rewrite cut: Jan. 30, 2026: Trump announced a rewritten childhood schedule recommending vaccination against 11 diseases, down from what he called "72 jabs." A chart released with it compared a "European Country" at 11 injections against the "United States" at 72.

ContextMerck stopped making standalone measles, mumps and rubella shots in the U.S. in 2009. The three separate injections the order describes aren't on the market; only the combined MMR is. [The Daily Wire reported](https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-orders-major-overhaul-of-childhood-vaccine-recommendations) that Trump tied the split-shot plan to autism, saying five visits would have "a huge impact on autism," although numerous large studies have found no association between MMR and autism.

THE HILL9 sources

2usImmigration enforcement

State Department has revoked more than 175,000 visas since Trump took office

The count covers the 19 months since Jan. 20, 2025, and is a running total for the second term rather than any single action.

The total now stands above 175,000 in about 19 months, roughly 300 a day. The U.S. issues about 11 million nonimmigrant visas a year, so the figure equals about 1.6 percent of a single year's issuance — pulled back from people the government had already vetted and approved.

ContextThe total now stands above 175,000 in about 19 months, roughly 300 a day. The U.S. issues about 11 million nonimmigrant visas a year, so the figure equals about 1.6 percent of a single year's issuance — pulled back from people the government had already vetted and approved.

THE HILL2 sources

3not newstechThe courts and the administration

Meta and TikTok tried to end thousands of youth addiction suits before trial; the 9th Circuit told them to wait

The appeals court did not say the claims are good. It said the companies tried to leave the courthouse before the case was over.

Section 230 — 26 words in the 1996 Communications Decency Act — says a website is not the publisher of what its users post, and for 30 years it has ended nearly every suit against a platform before evidence was taken. So these cases are built around the product, not the posts.

ContextSection 230 — 26 words in the 1996 Communications Decency Act — says a website is not the publisher of what its users post, and for 30 years it has ended nearly every suit against a platform before evidence was taken. So these cases are built around the product, not the posts.

AXIOS2 sources

Tuesday · The daily brief

Aug 112026

3 leads25 briefs7 min

Executive summary3 stories

News news2

  1. Trump orders the childhood MMR shot split into three injections at three separate visitsThe executive order tells federal health agencies to recommend fewer childhood shots and to break the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine across three appointments.
  2. State Department has revoked more than 175,000 visas since Trump took officeThe count covers the 19 months since Jan. 20, 2025, and is a running total for the second term rather than any single action.

Not news news1

  1. Meta and TikTok tried to end thousands of youth addiction suits before trial; the 9th Circuit told them to waitThe appeals court did not say the claims are good. It said the companies tried to leave the courthouse before the case was over.

News news2 stories

1.) THE HILL: Trump orders the childhood MMR shot split into three injections at three separate visits

The executive order tells federal health agencies to recommend fewer childhood shots and to break the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine across three appointments.

Trump signed the order Monday afternoon (Aug. 10) and held up a printed copy for the cameras. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was among the officials behind the change. The president of the American Academy of Pediatrics called the directive "dangerous," saying it arrives "as measles cases reach a 35-year high in the U.S. and with cold and flu season quickly approaching." Courts have already blocked this administration once from rewriting the childhood immunization schedule. Monday's order is the next attempt. It works by recommendation, not mandate: no parent is barred from getting a child the standard shots on the standard timeline.

What Trump's January schedule rewrite cutJan. 30, 2026: Trump announced a rewritten childhood schedule recommending vaccination against 11 diseases, down from what he…2 details
  • Jan. 30, 2026: Trump announced a rewritten childhood schedule recommending vaccination against 11 diseases, down from what he called "72 jabs."
  • A chart released with it compared a "European Country" at 11 injections against the "United States" at 72.

Red take

The honest cost is that no standalone measles shot has been sold here since 2009, so the spacing on offer is advice a pediatrician cannot fill today — a wager that meeting refusing families halfway wins back more coverage than an all-or-nothing calendar loses.

Blue take

The order compels nothing, and that is how it works: federal guidance sets what pediatricians default to and what a wavering parent hears, and it now points at three injections no manufacturer has sold here since 2009. Advising a course that cannot be booked is advising delay, and delay with measles at "a 35-year high" and cold and flu season approaching lands as outbreaks in classrooms, on families who never opted out.

RELATEDCassidy criticizes vaccine order, saying Trump has no 'expertise to make these changes'

Bill Cassidy, a Republican senator and a doctor, cleared Kennedy's path to HHS. He is now criticizing the order in public. Any check from Congress would start with him.

Bill Cassidy (Sen-R Louisiana) criticized an executive order President Trump signed Monday (Aug. 10) on childhood vaccines, saying the president lacks the "expertise to make these changes."

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Aug 9.

  1. State Dept Finalizes Fraud Rule
  2. State Department has revoked more than 175,000 visas since Trump took office — this issue

2.) THE HILL: State Department has revoked more than 175,000 visas since Trump took office

The count covers the 19 months since Jan. 20, 2025, and is a running total for the second term rather than any single action.

The State Department said on Monday, Aug. 10, 2026, that it has revoked more than 175,000 visas held by foreign nationals since Trump's second term began on Jan. 20, 2025. It gave the number to Fox News before releasing it more widely. Officials blamed violations of the terms of the visas, including criminal activity and public calls for violence against U.S. citizens. The number is cumulative, covering the whole term so far — less than two years. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (Sec-R Florida), whose department signs off on revocations, sat beside Trump at a White House mining industry roundtable last week.

SEMI-RELATEDTrump calls Democratic candidates 'jihadists'

Read more about: Trump calls Democratic candidates 'jihadists'

Trump's comments about Muslim candidates and Somali immigrants run alongside a revocation policy that lists 'calls for violence' as grounds for pulling a visa.

Along with his comments about Muslim candidates, Mr. Trump spoke disparagingly of Somali immigrants and their place in Democratic politics.

Quick bites25

  1. Sanders asks OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta to pause AI development

    AXIOS

    Bernie Sanders (Sen-I Vermont) wrote Monday to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta, asking all three to pause AI development. Nothing binds them: no bill, no rule, just a letter.

  2. Staten Island judge halts Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax rollout, city appeals

    WSJ

    A Staten Island judge blocked Mayor Zohran Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax and ordered New York City to pull down the published rolls. Judge Wayne Ozzi issued the temporary restraining order Monday, days after homeowners sued over the rollout; the city has moved to appeal.

  3. Senate Republicans released Fauci texts showing he privately raised a miscarriage concern in 2021

    WASHINGTON POST

    Rand Paul (Sen-R Kentucky) and Ron Johnson (Sen-R Wisconsin) released 2021 texts of Anthony Fauci asking whether a second COVID dose could be tied to miscarriage. The senators picked them from more than 34,000 messages; the texts show a question, not a finding.

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 15 days, starting Jul 27.

    1. Fauci’s diary goes public
    2. Senate Republicans released Fauci texts showing he privately raised a miscarriage concern in 2021 — this issue

  4. House members introduce companion bill to Senate's Russia sanctions package

    THE HILL

    A bipartisan group led by Michael McCaul (Rep-R Texas) and Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland) filed a matching House bill Monday for the Russia sanctions package the Senate passed this month. It books no floor vote, but shows the cross-party backing House leaders would need.

Elections21 races

Congressional control

Who ends up holding each chamber

Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
7-day replay

U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House, Polymarket 87%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 47%, Kalshi 46%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democratic control7 days ago · Democrats favoured
87%83%chance of Democratic control of the House · 3.5pp apart
U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House. 7 days ago, Polymarket 87% and Kalshi 83%. Today it stands at Polymarket 87% and Kalshi 85%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it7 days ago · Republicans favoured
45%47%chance Democrats take it · 2.5pp apart
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. 7 days ago, Polymarket 45% and Kalshi 47%. Today it stands at Polymarket 47% and Kalshi 46%.
7 days ago
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take it. This desk has not established who is defending the House, so that bar stays in the market’s own words and claims nothing about who would be losing it. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • Polymarket, solid
  • Kalshi, dashed

Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.

3 of 21 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • hAlaska SenateMary Peltola 54.0%Dan Sullivan 47.3%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 46.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • pGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 92.08%Collins 6.55%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 91.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 4.85%, Kalshi 8.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • iIowa Senateone bookAshley Hinson 66.0%Josh Turek 34.5%

    KALSHI: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and Hinson holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in five days — on by far the thinnest market here.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Kalshi 66%; Josh Turek (D): Kalshi 34.5%. Full history is in the table below.

    5 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

The other 18 races21 consequential races · Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate7 of 10

  • fMaine SenateTroy Jackson 66.5%Susan Collins 33.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • jMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 56.5%Mike Rogers 44.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side gained about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 72.0%Osborn 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 87.0%13.0%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

    Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 90.80%9.72%Whatley

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 91.1%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 10.50%, Kalshi 8.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • kOhio SenateBrown51.5%Husted50.5%books splitSherrod Brown 50.5%Jon Husted 50.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Ohio Senate

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp

    Ohio Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Sherrod Brown. Polymarket: Brown ahead by 2 points. Kalshi: Husted ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.

    Brown aheadHusted ahead5%tied5%7d agotodayBrown +2%PolymarketHusted +1%Kalshi

    today

    • Brown+2%Polymarket
    • Husted+1%Kalshi
    • Brown51.5%Polymarket
    • Brown49.5%Kalshi
    • Husted49.5%Polymarket
    • Husted50.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • gTexas SenateKen Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 49.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other, after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11

  • tAlaska governorWilson 30.8%Tom Begich 27.5%41.7%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within three points of each other, after Wilson gained about five points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 33.0%, Kalshi 28.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 29%, Kalshi 26%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • vArizona governorKatie Hobbs 84.5%14.8%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 84%, Kalshi 85%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 56.0%Rick Jackson 44.3%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 5.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sIowa governorRob Sand 66.8%Zach Lahn 33.3%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 69.0%, Kalshi 64.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 31.0%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 84.0%James 15.8%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; John James (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 16.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nNevada governorAaron Ford 53.5%Joe Lombardo 46.8%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 55%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 48.0%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.3%Blakeman 5.7%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 95.1%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 4.9%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • eOhio governorActon52.0%Ramaswamy50.5%books splitAmy Acton 50.8%Vivek Ramaswamy 49.3%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Ohio governor

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp

    Ohio governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Amy Acton. Polymarket: Acton ahead by 4 points. Kalshi: Ramaswamy ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.

    Acton aheadRamaswamy ahead10%tied10%7d agotodayActon +4%PolymarketRamaswamy +1%Kalshi

    today

    • Acton+4%Polymarket
    • Ramaswamy+1%Kalshi
    • Acton52.0%Polymarket
    • Acton49.5%Kalshi
    • Ramaswamy48.0%Polymarket
    • Ramaswamy50.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • yPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 94.8%Garrity 5.7%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.1%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 5.9%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wTexas governorGreg Abbott 87.83%12.75%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 87.15%, Kalshi 88.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 13.0%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lWisconsin governorTom Tiffany 60.3%Francesca Hong 39.0%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    Tom Tiffany (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary; Francesca Hong (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary.

    An open governorship, and neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided, but no race here has moved more this week: the Democratic side is down about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 59.0%, Kalshi 61.5%; Francesca Hong (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Prices captured Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

3.) AXIOS: Meta and TikTok tried to end thousands of youth addiction suits before trial; the 9th Circuit told them to wait

The appeals court did not say the claims are good. It said the companies tried to leave the courthouse before the case was over.

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Monday, Aug. 10, that thousands of lawsuits accusing Meta Platforms, ByteDance's TikTok and other social media companies of building products that addict and harm young people can go forward. The panel did not decide whether the claims are any good. It held that Meta and TikTok appealed too early, before the trial court had entered the kind of final judgment an appeals court is allowed to review. The plaintiffs are teenagers and their parents, hundreds of school districts, and state attorneys general. They argue the platforms engineered feeds, notifications and sign-up screens to maximize the hours minors spend on them, and buried internal research on the harm. The cases now go back to Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in U.S. District Court in Oakland, where the companies can raise every one of the same defenses again — just later, and after discovery (the pretrial stage where each side must hand over its internal documents).