News news3 stories
Donalds (Rep-R Florida) is Trump's pick. Jolly (D-FL) is a Republican who switched parties. They won the Aug. 18 primaries; the vote is Nov. 3.
Byron Donalds (Rep-R Florida) and David Jolly (D-FL) won their parties' nominations on Tuesday, Aug. 18, and are projected to meet in the fall election, according to Decision Desk HQ. Donalds, a third-term House member endorsed by Trump, defeated a crowded Republican field. Jolly, a former Republican House member who now runs as a Democrat, also topped a crowded field. The winner will replace term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis, who leaves office in January.
BackgroundWhat Trump's endorsement did to the Republican field
- Trump backed Donalds in February 2025 — 18 months before the vote, and before DeSantis had a candidate of his own.
- DeSantis withheld an endorsement of Donalds for months, an open split with the president whose 2018 endorsement made DeSantis governor in the first place.
- Donalds has held the Naples-area 19th District since 2021 and had never appeared on a statewide ballot before Tuesday, Aug. 18.
Related reading
Schwartzel, a broadcasting executive, beat Catalina Lauf in the Naples-area 19th District. Trump endorsed Lauf five days before the vote.
Read more about: Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz wins her Democratic primary in a redrawn Florida district
Another result from the same Aug. 18 ballot: her 20th District seat was reshaped by Florida's new map.
Ryan Elijah (R-FL), a former TV news anchor who has never held office, beat the two-term incumbent in Florida's 7th District on Tuesday, Aug. 18.
Cory Mills (Rep-R Florida) lost his bid for a third term in Florida's 7th Congressional District. The Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ both called the race for Elijah in a multi-candidate field. Donald Trump had endorsed Mills's reelection, so this is one of the rare times this cycle that a presidential endorsement did not carry a sitting Republican through his own primary. Mills ran while the House Ethics Committee — the panel that investigates members' conduct — had an open inquiry into him. The committee had announced no findings by primary day, and the inquiry stays open until his term ends in January 2027.
What the open Ethics Committee inquiry put on the primary ballot
- Allegations that Mills assaulted and threatened women, reported by the New York Times.
- Allegations of sexual misconduct, reported by the Washington Post.
- Separate allegations of domestic abuse.
- Alleged campaign finance violations tied to his own campaign accounts.
Disney wants a federal judge to stop the review before it starts, and says the agency's pressure has already changed what ABC puts on the air.
Disney and ABC sued the Federal Communications Commission on Tuesday, Aug. 18, to challenge an early review of ABC broadcast licenses. The companies accuse the Trump administration of using the review to censor journalists and say the FCC is violating their First Amendment rights.
What an early license review does to a broadcaster before anyone rules on anything:
- Disney owns eight ABC stations outright, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. More than 200 other ABC stations are licensed to separate companies such as Nexstar and Sinclair — the ones Disney cannot defend in this lawsuit.
- A license sitting under review is hard to sell, borrow against, or fold into a merger, so the cost lands on station owners months or years before the FCC decides anything.
- The FCC has never revoked a major network station's license over news content. The remedy nobody expects is the one that makes the threat work.
Oversight
Let the review finish. Broadcast stations use public airwaves under a federal permit; cable and podcasts do not. The permit carries duties, and the FCC's job is to enforce them. The timing is bad: Chairman Brendan Carr attacked ABC's late-night host Jimmy Kimmel in September 2025, and this order followed. These licenses were not due before 2028, and 30 days for months of paperwork is unfair. Give Disney more time. But the agency has found nothing and revoked nothing. Disney wants a judge to kill a review with no findings. Any licensee could ask for that.
Retaliation
A judge should stop the review now. An open review costs money by itself: the license is hard to sell, borrow against, or fold into a merger. Carr is right that a station on public airwaves owes the public something. Disney's filing says ABC already grew more careful about which candidates it books on ‘The View.’ No ruling was needed for that. The obvious reply is that Disney is big enough to outlast an agency. It has not tried. It put $15 million toward Trump's presidential foundation in December 2024 to settle a defamation suit, and in 2025 it pulled its late-night host Jimmy Kimmel off the air for a week.
Related reading
Disney offers the booking change as its proof of a chilling effect: the network says it hesitated over political guests while the review was pending, months before the FCC can rule on anything.
Quick bites3
Forest Service moves to open 44 million roadless acres to logging and roads
THE HILLThe U.S. Forest Service proposed on Aug. 18 to repeal the 2001 Roadless Rule, which bars road building and timber harvesting in roadless parts of the national forests. It is only a proposal, so those bans hold until the repeal is final.
Texas Governor Abbott refuses to hand over ICE officer charged in Minneapolis shooting, Minnesota sues
THE HILLMinnesota sued Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Aug. 18 over his refusal to return an ICE officer who is charged in the on-duty shooting of a Venezuelan man in Minneapolis this year. The officer is being held in a Texas jail.
Liberia will take up to 1,200 deportees from the US who are not its citizens
FOX NEWSLiberia said on Aug. 18 that it will take in up to 1,200 people the US wants to deport but cannot send to their home countries. The deal with the Trump administration runs one year.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 76 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 3.0pp gap / 3.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 49% |
| 6 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 50% |
| 5 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
| 3 days ago | 88% | 86% | 51% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 88% | 85% | 52% | 49% |
| yesterday | 88% | 86% | 52% | 48% |
| today | 88% | 85% | 52% | 49% |
3 closest races
gTexas SenatePaxton vs. TalaricoTalarico51.5%Paxton52.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
The two venues do not agree on who is ahead — the Republican side gained about three points in a week.
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 4 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 3 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Paxton+4%Kalshi
- Talarico+3%Polymarket
- Paxton48.5%Polymarket
- Paxton52.5%Kalshi
- Talarico51.5%Polymarket
- Talarico48.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi · James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Paxton · Polymarket Talarico · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Paxton · Kalshi Talarico · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 48.5% 51.5% Talarico +3% 46.0% 55.0% Talarico +9% 6 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Talarico +2% 49.0% 51.0% Talarico +2% 5 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Talarico +2% 50.0% 50.0% level 4 days ago 49.5% 51.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 51.0% level 3 days ago 48.5% 51.5% Talarico +3% 51.0% 49.0% Paxton +2% 2 days ago 48.5% 51.5% Talarico +3% 51.0% 49.0% Paxton +2% yesterday 48.5% 51.5% Talarico +3% 52.0% 50.0% Paxton +2% today 48.5% 51.5% Talarico +3% 52.5% 48.5% Paxton +4% sAlaska governorWilson vs. BegichBegich20%Wilson22%books split
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
The two venues do not agree on who is ahead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about 34 points.
The books name different leaders
Alaska governor
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0ppAlaska governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Bernadette Wilson. Kalshi: Wilson ahead by 4.5 points. Polymarket: Begich ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Wilson+4.5%Kalshi
- Begich+2%Polymarket
- Wilson18%Polymarket
- Wilson22%Kalshi
- Begich20.0%Polymarket
- Begich17.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Bernadette Wilson Polymarket, Kalshi · Tom Begich Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Alaska governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Wilson · Polymarket Begich · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Wilson · Kalshi Begich · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 27% 54.5% Begich +28% — 51.0% — 6 days ago 26% 53.5% Begich +27.5% — 50.0% — 5 days ago 26% 53.0% Begich +27% 24% 50.0% Begich +26% 4 days ago 26% 54.0% Begich +28% 28% 52.0% Begich +24% 3 days ago 26% 49.0% Begich +23.5% 22% 50.0% Begich +28% 2 days ago 28% 50.0% Begich +22.5% 16% 49.0% Begich +33% yesterday 18% 20.0% Begich +2% 22% 50.0% Begich +28% today 18% 20.0% Begich +2% 22% 17.5% Wilson +4.5% eOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 50% · Vivek Ramaswamy 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$75.6K52.5%Kalshi412K contracts · 50%/51%50.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-4.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$93.7K44%Kalshi634K contracts · 48%/49%50%venue gap6.0pp7-day move+4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 52.5% 50.0% 44.0% 50.0% 6 days ago 48.5% 50.0% 50.5% 49.0% 5 days ago 48.5% 51.0% 50.5% 50.0% 4 days ago 48.0% 50.0% 48.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 48.0% 50.0% 49.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 47.5% 51.0% 48.5% 49.0% yesterday 48.5% 51.0% 48.5% 49.0% today 48.5% 50.5% 48.5% 48.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
hAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 46%, Kalshi 46%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 54% · Dan Sullivan 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$217K51%Kalshi57.1K contracts · 53%/54%55%venue gap4.0pp7-day move+3.5ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$124K48.5%Kalshi64.2K contracts · 45%/47%45.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.0% 55.0% 48.5% 45% 6 days ago 51.5% 54.0% 48.5% 45% 5 days ago 51.0% 57.0% 48.5% 47% 4 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 47% 3 days ago 57.5% 56.0% 42.5% 47% 2 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.0% 48% yesterday 54.5% 56.0% 46.0% 47% today 54.5% 53.5% 46.0% 46% oGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 91.7%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.2%, Kalshi 8.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 92% · Mike Collins 8.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.0K93%Kalshi301K contracts · 91%/92%91%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-0.5ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$68.3K7.75%Kalshi769K contracts · 8.1%/8.5%9.60%venue gap1.9pp7-day move-0.6ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.0% 91.0% 7.75% 9.6% 6 days ago 93.0% 91.5% 7.70% 8.5% 5 days ago 93.0% 91.7% 7.70% 8.9% 4 days ago 93.0% 92.0% 7.55% 8.7% 3 days ago 92.5% 92.3% 7.60% 8.7% 2 days ago 92.5% 92.3% 7.35% 8.4% yesterday 93.0% 92.3% 7.20% 8.5% today 92.5% 91.7% 7.20% 8.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
iIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.0%, Kalshi 58.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 59% · Josh Turek 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$105K56.5%Kalshi887K contracts · 58%/59%59.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$104K43.5%Kalshi771K contracts · 41%/42%41.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 59.0% 43.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 57.0% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 43.0% 45.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 56.0% 40.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 40.5% 43.0% yesterday 60.0% 59.0% 40.0% 42.0% today 60.0% 58.5% 40.0% 41.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
fMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 67% · Susan Collins 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$717K69.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 65%/66%67.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$438K29.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 34%/35%35.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 29.5% 35.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 35.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 29.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 66.0% 30.5% 36.0% yesterday 69.5% 66.0% 30.5% 35.0% today 69.5% 65.5% 30.5% 34.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
jMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 57% · Mike Rogers 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$256K57.5%Kalshi841K contracts · 56%/57%59.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$238K42.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 44%/45%42.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.5% 59.0% 42.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 58.0% 43.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 45.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 58.0% 56.0% 42.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% yesterday 60.5% 56.0% 39.5% 43.0% today 60.5% 56.5% 39.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 71% · Dan Osborn 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.6K71.5%Kalshi239K contracts · 70%/71%71.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$25.1K28.5%Kalshi334K contracts · 29%/30%29.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 28.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 28.0% 30.0% 5 days ago 71.0% 71.0% 29.0% 30.0% 4 days ago 71.5% 70.0% 28.0% 30.0% 3 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 28.5% 30.0% 2 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 27.5% 29.0% yesterday 71.5% 71.0% 28.5% 29.0% today 71.5% 70.5% 28.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 88% · John E. Sununu 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$28.5K86.5%Kalshi70.6K contracts · 88%/90%89.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$18.4K14%Kalshi107K contracts · 12%/13%13%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 89.0% 14.0% 13.0% 6 days ago 85.0% 89.0% 14.0% 12.0% 5 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 14.5% 13.0% 4 days ago 85.5% 90.4% 14.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 13.5% 12.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 87.0% 15.0% 13.0% yesterday 85.5% 87.0% 15.0% 12.0% today 85.5% 89.0% 15.0% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.3%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 7.5%, Kalshi 7.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 7.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K91.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 92%/93%91.4%venue gap0.1pp7-day move+2.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.2K8.5%Kalshi176K contracts · 7.0%/8.2%8.4%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.4% 8.5% 8.4% 6 days ago 92.5% 92.9% 8.5% 7.6% 5 days ago 92.5% 92.8% 8.5% 8.0% 4 days ago 92.5% 91.7% 8.5% 8.3% 3 days ago 91.5% 91.6% 9.5% 8.3% 2 days ago 92.0% 92.6% 7.5% 8.2% yesterday 93.5% 92.8% 7.5% 8.3% today 93.5% 92.3% 7.5% 7.6% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 52% · Jon Husted 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$100K52.5%Kalshi778K contracts · 51%/52%51.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.3K48.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 48%/49%51.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 51.0% 44.5% 49.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 53.0% 42.5% 48.0% 4 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 47.0% 49.0% 3 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 46.5% 50.0% 2 days ago 52.5% 52.0% 47.5% 49.0% yesterday 52.5% 52.0% 47.5% 49.0% today 52.5% 51.5% 47.5% 48.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
uArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 88.0%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.0%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$30.8K87.5%Kalshi285K contracts · 87%/89%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$35.8K12.5%Kalshi217K contracts · 13%/14%15.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 87% 12.5% 15.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 87.0% 87% 13.0% 15.0% 4 days ago 87.0% 87% 13.0% 15.0% 3 days ago 87.0% 85% 13.5% 15.0% 2 days ago 87.5% 88% 13.0% 16.0% yesterday 87.5% 84% 13.0% 16.0% today 87.5% 88% 13.0% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 82%, Kalshi 79%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 79% · David Jolly 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$16.0K83%Kalshi126K contracts · 78%/80%82%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$21.0K17%Kalshi129K contracts · 22%/23%18%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.0% 82% 17.0% 18.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 82% 17.0% 20.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 83% 18.0% 21.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 81% 18.0% 23.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 80% 18.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 81% 17.5% 21.0% yesterday 82.0% 81% 17.5% 22.0% today 82.0% 79% 17.5% 22.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 60% · Rick Jackson 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$30.9K62.5%Kalshi260K contracts · 60%/61%61.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-3.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.1K36.5%Kalshi318K contracts · 40%/41%40.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 62.5% 61.0% 36.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 64.0% 61.0% 36.5% 40.0% 5 days ago 63.5% 61.0% 37.0% 42.0% 4 days ago 62.0% 60.0% 37.0% 41.0% 3 days ago 62.5% 60.0% 37.5% 42.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 40.5% 42.0% yesterday 59.5% 61.0% 40.0% 42.0% today 59.5% 60.5% 40.0% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 78% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$26.2K71.5%Kalshi191K contracts · 78%/79%72.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+6.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$35.5K28.5%Kalshi213K contracts · 23%/24%28.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 28.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 26.0% 28.0% 5 days ago 72.0% 72.0% 26.5% 28.0% 4 days ago 72.0% 72.0% 26.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 75.0% 75.0% 26.0% 26.0% yesterday 75.5% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% today 77.5% 78.5% 23.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 86.0%, Kalshi 86.5%; John James (R): Polymarket 15%, Kalshi 14%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 86% · John James 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.2K84%Kalshi71.4K contracts · 85%/88%86%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+2.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$150K15%Kalshi112K contracts · 13%/15%17%venue gap2.0pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.0% 86.0% 15% 17% 6 days ago 84.0% 86.0% 15% 17% 5 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 15% 16% 4 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 15% 16% 3 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 15% 17% 2 days ago 86.0% 88.0% 15% 14% yesterday 86.0% 85.0% 15% 15% today 86.0% 86.5% 15% 14% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead after the Democratic side gained about nine points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57%, Kalshi 60%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 41.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 59% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.0K64%Kalshi218K contracts · 59%/61%60%venue gap4.0pp7-day move-7.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$21.8K34.5%Kalshi461K contracts · 40%/42%32.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+8.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.0% 60% 34.5% 32% 6 days ago 63.0% 63% 36.5% 41% 5 days ago 62.5% 62% 37.5% 36% 4 days ago 63.5% 62% 36.0% 40% 3 days ago 60.5% 61% 38.5% 37% 2 days ago 57.5% 59% 43.0% 44% yesterday 56.5% 61% 42.5% 40% today 57.0% 60% 42.5% 41% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.5%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.50%, Kalshi 5.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 95% · Bruce Blakeman 5.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.0K93.5%Kalshi236K contracts · 94%/95%94.1%venue gap0.6pp7-day move+1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.1K6%Kalshi541K contracts · 5.5%/6.4%8%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 94.1% 6.0% 8.00% 6 days ago 93.5% 93.5% 6.0% 8.00% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.5% 6.0% 7.90% 4 days ago 94.0% 93.4% 6.0% 7.90% 3 days ago 94.5% 93.7% 5.5% 8.00% 2 days ago 94.5% 93.3% 5.5% 8.00% yesterday 94.5% 95.1% 5.5% 5.60% today 94.5% 94.5% 5.5% 5.95% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.4%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 5.00%, Kalshi 5.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 95% · Stacy Garrity 5.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.3K95.5%Kalshi67.8K contracts · 93%/96%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$19.2K5.5%Kalshi351K contracts · 3.8%/7.1%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 6 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 5 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 4 days ago 95.5% — 5.5% — 3 days ago 95.5% 94.9% 5.5% 6.70% 2 days ago 95.5% 95.5% 5.0% 6.70% yesterday 95.5% 95.6% 5.0% 4.00% today 95.5% 94.4% 5.0% 5.45% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 86.3%, Kalshi 85.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 86% · Gina Hinojosa 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$25.1K81.75%Kalshi122K contracts · 85%/86%86.00%venue gap4.2pp7-day move+4.5ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.3K17%Kalshi520K contracts · 13%/16%14%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.75% 86.0% 17.0% 14.0% 6 days ago 84.30% 86.0% 16.0% 15.0% 5 days ago 84.65% 87.0% 16.0% 15.0% 4 days ago 84.60% 87.0% 15.5% 15.0% 3 days ago 85.85% 87.0% 15.0% 14.0% 2 days ago 86.30% 88.0% 14.5% 14.0% yesterday 86.30% 86.0% 14.5% 16.0% today 86.30% 85.5% 14.5% 14.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
dWisconsin governorMedian Strategies faked its Bass and Hong polls as a 'social experiment,' then closed
THE HILL: Median Strategies faked its Bass and Hong polls as a 'social experiment,' then closed
Median Strategies, which released polls showing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Francesca Hong (D-WI) ahead by wide margins, announced on Aug. 17 that it is shutting down and directed media outlets to discount its surveys, saying the numbers were fake and meant as a 'social experiment' in how easily false results spread. Its Wisconsin poll had Hong up by double digits in the Democratic gubernatorial primary; she lost.
The firm told outlets to discount its numbers on the way out the door.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 75% · Tom Tiffany 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$113K77.5%Kalshi406K contracts · 74%/75%77.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$184K22.5%Kalshi441K contracts · 25%/26%24.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 23.5% 26.0% 5 days ago 76.5% 73.0% 23.5% 27.0% 4 days ago 75.5% 72.0% 23.5% 29.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 74.0% 23.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 75.0% 23.5% 26.0% yesterday 77.5% 75.0% 23.5% 26.0% today 77.5% 74.5% 23.5% 25.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 19, 6:41 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
A whistleblower complaint says investigators in some of the probes found no violations at all — and the schools paid anyway.
A former Justice Department lawyer has filed a whistleblower complaint about the department's antisemitism task force. It says the task force worked toward "predetermined" outcomes in its civil rights cases against Ivy League universities. In some of those cases, investigators found no violations of federal law at all. The schools were steered into settlements anyway, the complaint says. The Washington Post reported the same account, and said the task force pressured universities into punishing settlements even though it turned up little or no evidence of widespread abuse at the schools it examined. In the lawyer's telling, politics set where each case landed, not what investigators found.
What the task force collected from the schools that agreed to settle
- Columbia University: $200 million to the federal government over three years, plus $21 million to settle Equal Employment Opportunity Commission claims, announced July 23, 2025.
- Brown University: $50 million to Rhode Island workforce training groups over 10 years, agreed July 30, 2025.
- University of Pennsylvania: no payment, but a July 2025 policy deal that unfroze about $175 million in federal money.
Chosen
Columbia and Brown signed these agreements. One departing lawyer's complaint is not proof they were innocent. Nobody was charged with a crime. This is Title VI, the 1964 civil rights law that lets Washington cut off federal money to a school that discriminates. Settlements under it carry no admission of guilt. If investigators closed files finding nothing while the department kept demanding money, that is a scandal, and Columbia's $200 million should go back. But Columbia signed on July 23, 2025, and Brown a week later. Neither went to court. Harvard did, and won. They could have done the same.
Coerced
These were payments to get research funding released, and they fixed nothing on campus. Brown will pay $50 million over ten years to workforce training groups in Rhode Island. None of that reaches a Jewish student at Brown. The University of Pennsylvania paid nothing, got about $175 million unfrozen, and signed a deal about a transgender swimmer's eligibility under Title IX. Antisemitism was not in it. This rests on one former lawyer's account. Set it aside; the pressure is still there. The money at risk was research grants that pay for labs and teaching hospitals. Harvard had $2.2 billion frozen before a judge sided with it. Most schools cannot wait that out.
Related reading
Read more about: DOJ accuses William & Mary of discrimination in scholarships, benefits
The same DOJ civil rights division is opening the same kind of campus case the complaint says is decided before it starts.