Two Filipino sailors were killed on the Saudi tanker Sidr; the escorted convoy carried 18 million barrels, while independent trackers still put average flows at 4.19 million barrels a day against 16.63 million before the war.
American drones struck the engine rooms of two Iranian government-owned tankers anchored north of the U.S. blockade line on Tuesday, Sept. 1, under what one U.S. official called a "tanker for tanker" policy approved by Trump. The strikes followed attacks on two commercial tankers near the Musandam peninsula, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, each carrying about two million barrels of oil. Saudi Arabia said Iran hit the Saudi-owned Sidr and that two Filipino sailors aboard were killed. Bahri, the Saudi state shipping company that owns the ship, expressed "profound sadness" over the deaths and offered condolences to the families. Iran told a different story: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said both tankers caught fire after hitting mines on a transit route Tehran had not authorized. Maritime trackers placed the Sidr about 30 km northeast of Khasab, Oman, and logged an unknown-projectile strike at 19:52 GMT; a second ship, the Senegal Prosperity, was reported hit by three projectiles minutes later. U.S. officials say these are the first strikes meant as retaliation for attacks on merchant ships rather than enforcement of the American naval blockade of Iran. ([TS]Axios reported a July 7 U.S. strike round on Iranian targets that followed three ship attacks in 24 hours; those hit shore targets, not tankers.)
The record convoy, and what it does not settle
- U.S. forces shot down Iranian drones the same day while escorting what officials called the largest volume of the war: 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels, per CNN. No U.S. or commercial ship in the convoy was reported hit.
- Officials did not say how long the convoy took to pass through, so 18 million barrels is not a daily flow figure. (TS: the IEA put 2025 average Hormuz crude and oil-products flow at about 20 million barrels per day.)
- CENTCOM's June 20 release reported 55 merchant transits and more than 17 million barrels moved, without defining what counted as one convoy.
What is actually moving through the strait
- @TankerTrackers estimates average crude exports through Hormuz at 4.19 million barrels a day across 186 days of conflict, against 16.63 million a day before the fighting began.
- EIA, using Vortexa data, estimated 4.9 million barrels a day across the second quarter of 2026 — 22.7% of the 21.6 million-bpd average in the last quarter of 2025.
- Kalshi contracts on Hormuz traffic returning to normal price the chance at 2.5% before Oct. 1, 7.5% before Nov. 1 and 23.5% before Jan. 1, 2027.
What the tracking data proves, and what nobody has shown
- Marisks, Kpler and the UK Maritime Trade Operations desk each logged projectile impacts at both ships, but neither Saudi Arabia nor the U.S. has published fragments, launch tracks, radar or satellite imagery tying the strike to Iran.
- U.S. Central Command said its forces finished clearing mines from the international shipping lanes the week before, which does not rule out mines elsewhere.
- No loss or delivery accounting has been published for either ship's cargo.