News news2 stories
Environmental and public health groups sued the same day the final rule published (Sept. 17).
The Environmental Protection Agency published a final rule Thursday, Sept. 17, repealing most of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards — the Biden-era limits on greenhouse gases from fossil fuel-fired power plants. EPA says it is acting on "a reevaluation" of the legal and technical basis for those standards, which had required coal and gas plants to cut carbon dioxide or shut down by set dates.
Environmental and public health organizations filed suit over the repeal, arguing EPA cannot walk away from limits it already found achievable.
What next. The repeal took effect on publication Thursday, Sept. 17 — the same day the suit was filed.
Ongoing2 earlier updates4 days
This story has run 3 times over 4 days, starting Sep 14.
- Carney seeks EU associate-member status for Canada after US trade talks collapse
- EU chief proposes making Canada the bloc's first associate member
- UpdateCarney accepts EU invitation for Canada to become the bloc's first associate member; Trump calls it a possible 'hostile act' — this issue
Trump threatened tariffs or a trade embargo on the EU if Canada joins as an associate member.
The invitation. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told the European Parliament on Thursday, Sept. 17, that Canada welcomes an invitation to join the European Union as its first "associate member" — a status that does not exist yet and would have to be built from scratch. "A Canada-EU alliance would create a beacon for other democracies," he said.
Trump's warning. Donald Trump, asked about it Wednesday, Sept. 16, said the arrangement could be "a hostile act" and that he would answer with tariffs or a trade embargo against the bloc. Carney, in Strasbourg, said he was pressing ahead through what he called a "ferocious storm."
Still open. No EU treaty text, timetable or list of which single-market rules Canada would accept has been published, and any deal would need agreement from all 27 member states.
Catch up
Sept. 11 — Trump, asked why he had not escalated the Iran conflict, pointed to the coming midterm elections. Sept. 14 — With U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed, Carney began seeking associate-member status with the EU.
Related reading
Explains the scale of Carney's realignment away from Washington that the EU associate membership is meant to deliver.
[NOTABLE TAKE] Canada's pivot to the EU and Asia could still help the US economy
An argument that Ottawa's turn away from the U.S. market need not hurt American business.
Quick bites9
White House pulls Lance Schroyer's nomination to lead ICE after Senate Republicans blocked him
NPRImmigration enforcementTrump tapped Schroyer, a former Oklahoma state trooper, in June. Republicans blocked his confirmation hearing — Senate Homeland Security Chairman Rand Paul held it up over requests for information about the Minneapolis shootings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti by immigration officers. Axios reported Schroyer's limited immigration experience had also become a fight between Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and border czar Tom Homan. ICE still has no Senate-confirmed director.
Rep. Salazar says Trump's deportations went "too far" and Hispanics who backed him "feel betrayed"
THE HILLImmigration enforcementMaría Elvira Salazar (Rep-R Florida) made the charge in a campaign ad for her Miami seat released Thursday, Sept. 17, and fellow House Republicans are already hitting her for it.
UN mission finds reasonable grounds to believe U.S. committed war crimes in two February airstrikes in Iran, on a school in Minab and a sports complex in Lamerd
BBCIran warThe UN's fact-finding mission on Iran said Thursday, Sept. 17, that it found “reasonable grounds” to believe U.S. forces committed war crimes in two airstrikes inside Iran in February — one hit a primary school in Minab, the other a sports complex in Lamerd. Washington has not acknowledged either strike; the same report accuses Iran's government of crimes against humanity against Iranians. The mission reports to the UN Human Rights Council — it has no power to charge anyone.
Judge sets deadline for AG Todd Blanche on Epstein files, warns of contempt
THE HILLU.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan gave Attorney General Todd Blanche until Sept. 24 to turn over Epstein records covered by his earlier orders — handwritten FBI interview notes and foreign-language materials the Justice Department said it could not produce — or explain why the orders were not “clear and unambiguous.” If DOJ misses the deadline, Sullivan warned in a Wednesday, Sept. 16 opinion, contempt proceedings could follow.
US grants visas for Iran's president Pezeshkian and foreign minister Araghchi while barring the Palestinian delegation for a second year
BBCIran warThe US granted visas to President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi so they can attend the UN General Assembly in New York — the State Department limited admission to a “core delegation.” Pezeshkian is listed to address the assembly Wednesday, Sept. 23. Admitting UN delegations is not discretionary: the 1947 UN Headquarters Agreement obliges the U.S. to let accredited delegations reach UN business. Whether it covers the Palestinians is the contested part — the PA and PLO hold non-member observer status at the UN, not full membership. Days earlier the administration denied visas to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the PLO delegation for the second straight year, saying the PLO and PA had failed their commitments.
State Department OKs potential $24B fighter jet sale to Saudis
THE HILLThe State Department approved a potential $24 billion sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia over objections from lawmakers worried about Israel's qualitative military edge.
Senate Democrat blocks House-passed bill on data center electricity costs
POLITICO CONGRESSSen. Martin Heinrich blocked Sen. Jon Husted's attempt to pass the Ratepayer Protection Act by unanimous consent, stalling a House-passed bill to make data centers cover their electricity price impact
India faces 100% tariff threat over Russian oil after US House vote
BBC WORLDTariffs and tradeA House vote puts India at risk of 100 percent tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil, squeezing both its energy strategy and its access to the US market.
EU announces plan to restrict social media access for under-15s
BBC WORLDThe European Commission announced a plan to bar children under 15 from opening their own social media accounts.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 46 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 89%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 60%, Kalshi 59%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 87% | 86% | 54% | 48% |
| 6 days ago | 87% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
| 5 days ago | 88% | 85% | 54% | 49% |
| 4 days ago | 87% | 86% | 59% | 49% |
| 3 days ago | 89% | 86% | 59% | 52% |
| 2 days ago | 90% | 86% | 60% | 55% |
| yesterday | 90% | 89% | 60% | 56% |
| today | 90% | 89% | 60% | 59% |
3 closest races
sNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 52.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 54% · Aaron Ford 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$113K43%Kalshi257K contracts · 55%/56%56%venue gap13pp7-day move+9.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$44.7K47.5%Kalshi505K contracts · 44%/45%43.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 43.0% 56.0% 47.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 51.0% 55.0% 49.0% 44.0% 5 days ago 48.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 4 days ago 46.0% 56.0% 48.0% 45.0% 3 days ago 53.5% 54.0% 46.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 49.5% 55.0% 44.5% 46.0% yesterday 52.0% 55.0% 44.5% 45.0% today 52.0% 55.5% 44.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 55% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$228K51.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 54%/55%53.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$173K48.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 45%/46%49.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 49.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 47.0% 48.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 53.0% 46.5% 47.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 48.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% yesterday 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 47.0% today 54.5% 54.5% 45.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 54% · Rick Jackson 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$38.8K57%Kalshi309K contracts · 53%/54%56%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-0.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.5K42.5%Kalshi444K contracts · 46%/47%44.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.0% 56.0% 42.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 57.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 58.0% 56.0% 42.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 58.0% 54.0% 40.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% yesterday 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% today 56.5% 53.5% 43.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
mAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 68% · Dan Sullivan 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$279K67.5%Kalshi95.0K contracts · 68%/69%65.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$157K33.5%Kalshi76.0K contracts · 30%/31%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 65.0% 33.5% — 6 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 33.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 66.5% 67.0% 33.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 33.5% 37.0% yesterday 67.5% 68.0% 33.5% 35.0% today 67.5% 68.5% 33.5% 30.5% uGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 94.1%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.75%, Kalshi 5.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 5.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$53.3K92.5%Kalshi387K contracts · 94%/94%92.3%venue gap0.2pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.5K7.1%Kalshi916K contracts · 5.7%/6.0%7.8%venue gap0.7pp7-day move-0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 92.3% 7.10% 7.80% 6 days ago 92.5% 92.3% 7.50% 7.90% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.3% 6.45% 6.80% 4 days ago 92.5% 93.4% 6.65% 7.50% 3 days ago 93.0% 93.5% 7.10% 7.00% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.8% 6.75% 6.60% yesterday 93.5% 93.1% 6.75% 6.80% today 93.5% 94.1% 6.75% 5.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$179K61%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 60%/61%67%venue gap6.0pp7-day move-0.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$179K39%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 39%/40%34%venue gap5.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.0% 67.0% 39.0% 34.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 62.0% 39.5% 40.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 62.0% 42.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 57.0% 61.0% 41.5% 39.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 62.0% 40.5% 39.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 39.0% yesterday 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% today 60.5% 60.5% 39.5% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$835K70.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 67%/68%68.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$564K29.5%Kalshi2.9M contracts · 32%/33%33.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 30.5% 33.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 35.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 29.5% 35.0% yesterday 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% today 70.5% 67.5% 29.5% 32.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35%, Kalshi 37%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 65% · Mike Rogers 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$468K62.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 64%/65%64.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$366K37%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 36%/38%37%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 62.5% 64.0% 37.0% 37% 6 days ago 59.5% 63.0% 40.0% 40% 5 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 39.5% 37% 4 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 39.5% 41% 3 days ago 66.5% 62.0% 33.5% 39% 2 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 35.0% 39% yesterday 64.5% 65.0% 35.0% 36% today 64.5% 64.5% 35.0% 37% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$116K65%Kalshi713K contracts · 68%/69%71%venue gap6.0pp7-day move+2.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$71.3K31.5%Kalshi531K contracts · 30%/31%27.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.0% 71.0% 31.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 66.5% 71.0% 31.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 30.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% yesterday 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 31.0% today 67.5% 68.5% 32.5% 30.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 81% · John E. Sununu 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$77.7K83.5%Kalshi269K contracts · 80%/81%84.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.8K14.5%Kalshi497K contracts · 19%/20%16.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 84.0% 14.5% 16.0% 6 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 15.0% 15.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 85.0% 17.5% 16.0% 3 days ago 82.0% 82.0% 18.5% 18.0% 2 days ago 84.0% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% yesterday 83.5% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% today 83.5% 80.5% 16.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 92.45%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 7.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 7.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$54.6K92.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 92%/93%90.9%venue gap1.6pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.0K8.5%Kalshi791K contracts · 7.4%/8.0%10.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 90.90% 8.5% 10.0% 6 days ago 92.0% 91.70% 9.0% 9.0% 5 days ago 90.5% 91.20% 10.0% 8.8% 4 days ago 91.5% 92.00% 9.0% 9.0% 3 days ago 91.5% 92.30% 8.5% 8.8% 2 days ago 91.5% 92.20% 8.5% 8.1% yesterday 92.5% 91.90% 8.5% 8.7% today 92.5% 92.45% 8.5% 7.7% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about seven points.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 57% · Ken Paxton 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$579K51.5%Kalshi5.6M contracts · 56%/57%51.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+6.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$742K48.5%Kalshi7.5M contracts · 43%/44%51.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 6 days ago 49.5% 51.0% 49.5% 50.0% 5 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 51.0% 45.5% 50.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 50.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 54.0% 41.5% 47.0% yesterday 57.5% 54.0% 41.5% 47.0% today 57.5% 56.5% 41.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
yAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 24%, Kalshi 25%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.85%, Kalshi 0.40%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 24% · Tom Begich 0.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$174K27.5%Kalshi52.7K contracts · 24%/26%—venue gap—7-day move-3.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$162K1.35%Kalshi242K contracts · 0.3%/0.5%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 27.5% — 1.35% — 6 days ago 27.5% — 1.35% 0.1% 5 days ago 26.5% 26% 1.40% 0.1% 4 days ago 27.0% 27% 1.35% 0.1% 3 days ago 26.5% 24% 1.30% 0.3% 2 days ago 24.0% 25% 1.20% 0.3% yesterday 24.0% 24% 0.85% 0.3% today 24.0% 25% 0.85% 0.4% aaArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.3K86.5%Kalshi332K contracts · 88%/89%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K12.5%Kalshi258K contracts · 12%/13%15.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 12.5% 15.0% 6 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 5 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 87.0% 12.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 12.0% 2 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% yesterday 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% today 87.5% 88.5% 12.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 79% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.1K81.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 78%/79%82.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$35.9K18.5%Kalshi485K contracts · 21%/22%20.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 18.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 81.0% 80.0% 19.0% 21.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 79.5% 81.0% 20.0% 20.0% yesterday 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 20.0% today 79.5% 78.5% 20.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.0%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 78% · Zach Lahn 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.1K77%Kalshi345K contracts · 78%/79%78%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-0.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.7K23.5%Kalshi335K contracts · 21%/22%22.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 22.0% 6 days ago 76.5% 79.0% 23.5% 24.0% 5 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 22.0% 4 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% 3 days ago 77.0% 77.0% 24.0% 23.0% 2 days ago 76.5% 79.0% 23.0% 23.0% yesterday 76.5% 79.0% 23.0% 21.0% today 76.5% 78.5% 23.0% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.3%; John James (R): Polymarket 9.50%, Kalshi 9.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 91% · John James 9.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.1K92.5%Kalshi74.0K contracts · 90%/93%88.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$157K7%Kalshi137K contracts · 8.5%/10%—venue gap—7-day move+2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 88.0% 7.0% — 6 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 6.5% 11.00% 5 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 7.0% 12.00% 4 days ago 92.0% 92.6% 6.5% 9.10% 3 days ago 92.0% 92.8% 6.5% 12.00% 2 days ago 92.0% 89.0% 9.0% 12.00% yesterday 91.5% 92.2% 9.5% 8.60% today 91.5% 91.3% 9.5% 9.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.45%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.0K94.5%Kalshi366K contracts · 92%/93%92.2%venue gap2.3pp7-day move-1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.4K6.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 7.4%/8.0%9.3%venue gap2.8pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 92.20% 6.5% 9.3% 6 days ago 94.5% 92.20% 6.5% 8.7% 5 days ago 94.5% 92.10% 6.5% 9.3% 4 days ago 93.5% 92.20% 6.5% 8.9% 3 days ago 93.5% 92.30% 6.5% 8.5% 2 days ago 93.5% 92.30% 6.5% 8.2% yesterday 93.5% 92.50% 6.5% 7.9% today 93.5% 92.45% 6.5% 7.7% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
jOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 44.0%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 55% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.7K55.5%Kalshi794K contracts · 55%/56%57.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K43.5%Kalshi837K contracts · 44%/45%45.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 43.5% 45.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 56.0% 45.0% 45.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.0% 44.0% 4 days ago 55.0% 57.0% 44.0% 47.0% 3 days ago 55.0% 55.0% 44.0% 47.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% yesterday 54.5% 54.0% 44.0% 47.0% today 54.5% 55.5% 44.0% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.75%, Kalshi 97.20%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.60%, Kalshi 3.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.85%Kalshi102K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move-0.1ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.0K2.5%Kalshi401K contracts · 2.9%/3.2%—venue gap—7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.85% — 2.50% — 6 days ago 97.10% 95.5% 2.30% 4.50% 5 days ago 96.90% 95.1% 2.25% 4.20% 4 days ago 97.00% 97.5% 2.40% 3.30% 3 days ago 96.60% 97.1% 2.55% 3.40% 2 days ago 96.25% 97.2% 2.95% 3.30% yesterday 96.65% 96.5% 2.60% 2.90% today 96.75% 97.2% 2.60% 3.05% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 77% · Gina Hinojosa 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.6K81%Kalshi203K contracts · 76%/77%84%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-3.5ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$64.8K19%Kalshi730K contracts · 24%/25%18%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.00% 84.0% 19.0% 18.0% 6 days ago 81.10% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% 5 days ago 83.10% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 83.30% 83.0% 16.0% 19.0% 3 days ago 82.90% 82.0% 16.5% 18.0% 2 days ago 77.45% 84.0% 22.0% 17.0% yesterday 77.50% 83.0% 22.5% 18.0% today 77.50% 76.5% 22.5% 24.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 19.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 82% · Tom Tiffany 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$316K82.5%Kalshi466K contracts · 81%/82%82.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$274K17.5%Kalshi675K contracts · 18%/20%19.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 19% 6 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20% 5 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 20% 4 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 16.5% 19% 3 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 20% 2 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 21% yesterday 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 19% today 83.5% 81.5% 16.5% 19% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
Ongoing1 earlier update2 days
This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 16.
- UpdateThe Kennedy Center will close for two years after a judge voided the vote to put Trump's name on it
- UpdateJudge orders 30 days' written notice before any change to the Kennedy Center, including demolition, but refuses an emergency hearing on this week's closure — this issue
Joyce Beatty (Rep-D Ohio), an ex officio board member, had asked for the hearing after the Trump-aligned board voted to shut the building Tuesday, Sept. 15 for a two-year, $285 million rebuild, up from the $250 million plan a judge blocked in May 2026.
The order. U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper ruled Thursday, Sept. 17 that the government must give 30 days' written notice before making any change to the Kennedy Center "including but not limited to any 'demolition'" of the main building.
The refusal. He turned down a separate request from Beatty for an emergency hearing on the board's vote to close the venue, which shut its doors Tuesday, Sept. 15.
What it buys. The order does not stop the closure. Nothing structural can happen to the building without a month's warning filed in court — Beatty's lawyers get a window to challenge the closure before any demolition could begin.
What next. The 30-day clock only starts if the administration files notice. No filing has been made, and no hearing date is set.
Catch up
- Sept. 4 — Part of the grand foyer ceiling collapsed during storms. No one was hurt.
- Sept. 14 — Internal papers warned of "certain financial collapse" within weeks, saying putting Trump's name on the building might be the only way to avoid bankruptcy.
- Sept. 16 — A judge voided the vote to rename the building. The board closed it anyway for two years, and Trump said the rebuild — now priced at $285 million, up from $250 million in May 2026 — waits for a court win on his name.