News news2 stories
Danish officials have not confirmed the terms, and no text has been signed or released; Denmark and Greenland both said they expect a signing soon.
The claim. President Trump said late Friday, Sept. 18, that the United States has reached an agreement with Denmark and Greenland that gives America "permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland." He described it as permanent U.S. access, basing and military rights on the island, which is a self-governing territory of Denmark and home to about 57,000 people.
The gap. No agreement text has been published, and Danish officials have not confirmed Trump's description of it. Denmark and Greenland each said they expect something to be signed soon.
What's already there. Greenland already hosts the U.S. Pituffik Space Base, and a 1951 defense treaty with Denmark already lets American forces operate there.
Still open. Whether the signed text says "permanent control over security" — Trump's phrase — or something narrower about basing and access.
How we got here
- Mon Sept. 7 — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went to Nuuk, Greenland's capital, and pledged European Union money for the island, promising to more than double the sum later. The same week, 11 NATO countries — not the United States — ran military exercises there.
Quick bites4
Newsom signs order directing California to build an AI 'kill switch'
WASHINGTON POSTGov. Gavin Newsom (Gov-D California) said he signed the order because the federal government has not done enough to regulate AI. He vetoed a broader AI safety bill in 2024.
Trump bans CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House, effective immediately
AXIOSTrump said Friday, Sept. 18, the three outlets are out "because they're fake news," and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he "fully supports" the decision. Axios alone reported the remark. There is no written order, and the White House has not said how the bar would work. Federal courts have previously held the White House cannot revoke press access over an outlet's coverage.
Shaheen puts a hold on a $2.8 billion U.S. weapons sale to Israel
THE HILLJeanne Shaheen (Sen-D New Hampshire), the top Democrat on Senate Foreign Relations, joins her House counterpart in holding the sale. A hold works because administrations customarily wait for the committee's sign-off before formally notifying Congress — and the Trump administration can override the delay, since the hold is a committee custom and not a legal block.
Trump says his son repaid Russian businessman Umar Kremlev for Bahamas wedding after-party
WSJUmar Kremlev, a businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin, spent what the Journal reports was hundreds of thousands of dollars on Donald Trump Jr.'s two-day post-wedding party in the Bahamas. Trump defended taking the gift as "common." John Curtis (Sen-R Utah) called it corruption.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 45 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 61%, Kalshi 60%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 87% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
| 6 days ago | 88% | 85% | 54% | 49% |
| 5 days ago | 87% | 86% | 59% | 49% |
| 4 days ago | 89% | 86% | 59% | 52% |
| 3 days ago | 90% | 86% | 60% | 55% |
| 2 days ago | 90% | 89% | 61% | 56% |
| yesterday | 90% | 90% | 61% | 59% |
| today | 90% | 90% | 61% | 60% |
3 closest races
kOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 55% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$231K51.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 54%/55%53.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$174K47%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 45%/46%48%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 47.0% 48.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 53.0% 46.5% 47.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 48.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 47.0% yesterday 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% today 54.5% 54.5% 45.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 54.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 55% · Aaron Ford 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$113K51%Kalshi263K contracts · 55%/56%55%venue gap4.0pp7-day move+3.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.1K49%Kalshi507K contracts · 44%/45%44%venue gap5.0pp7-day move-3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.0% 55.0% 49.0% 44.0% 6 days ago 48.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 5 days ago 46.0% 56.0% 48.0% 45.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 54.0% 46.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 49.5% 55.0% 44.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 54.0% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% yesterday 54.0% 56.0% 45.5% 44.0% today 54.0% 55.5% 45.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 55% · Rick Jackson 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$38.8K57%Kalshi311K contracts · 54%/55%57%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-0.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.5K43.5%Kalshi447K contracts · 44%/45%44.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 58.0% 56.0% 42.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 58.0% 54.0% 40.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% yesterday 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 47.0% today 56.5% 54.5% 43.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
hAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after Sullivan lost about six points in six days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 72% · Dan Sullivan 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$287K67.5%Kalshi95.3K contracts · 69%/70%66.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+5.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$162K33.5%Kalshi77.7K contracts · 30%/32%—venue gap—7-day move-6.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 33.5% — 6 days ago 66.5% 67.0% 33.5% 37% 5 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% 37% 4 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% 37% 3 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 33.5% 37% 2 days ago 72.5% 68.0% 27.5% 35% yesterday 72.5% 69.0% 27.5% 31% today 72.5% 69.5% 27.5% 31% pGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.05%, Kalshi 6.90%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 6.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$53.4K92.5%Kalshi387K contracts · 93%/94%92.3%venue gap0.2pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.6K7.5%Kalshi921K contracts · 6.4%/7.4%7.9%venue gap0.4pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 92.30% 7.50% 7.9% 6 days ago 93.5% 92.30% 6.45% 6.8% 5 days ago 92.5% 93.40% 6.65% 7.5% 4 days ago 93.0% 93.50% 7.10% 7.0% 3 days ago 93.5% 93.80% 6.75% 6.6% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.10% 7.05% 6.8% yesterday 93.5% 94.00% 7.05% 7.5% today 93.5% 93.65% 7.05% 6.9% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
iIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$180K60.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 60%/61%62.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$179K39.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 39%/40%40.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 62.0% 39.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 62.0% 42.5% 38.0% 5 days ago 57.0% 61.0% 41.5% 39.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 62.0% 40.5% 39.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 39.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% yesterday 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% today 60.5% 60.5% 39.5% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
fMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$850K70.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 67%/68%68.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$566K29.5%Kalshi2.9M contracts · 33%/34%33.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 30.5% 33.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 35.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 29.5% 35.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% yesterday 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 33.0% today 70.5% 67.5% 29.5% 33.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
jMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 65% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$470K59.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 64%/65%63.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+6.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$369K40%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 36%/37%40%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 63.0% 40.0% 40.0% 6 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 39.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 39.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 66.5% 62.0% 33.5% 39.0% 3 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 35.0% 39.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 35.5% 36.0% yesterday 65.5% 65.0% 35.5% 37.0% today 65.5% 64.5% 35.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$117K66.5%Kalshi730K contracts · 68%/69%71.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$72.1K31.5%Kalshi534K contracts · 31%/32%27.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 66.5% 71.0% 31.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 27.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 30.0% 3 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 31.0% yesterday 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% today 67.5% 68.5% 32.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 83% · John E. Sununu 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$97.2K84.5%Kalshi335K contracts · 83%/84%85.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-4.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$75.2K15%Kalshi563K contracts · 16%/17%15%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 15.0% 15.0% 6 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 80.5% 85.0% 17.5% 16.0% 4 days ago 82.0% 82.0% 18.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 84.0% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 80.5% 82.0% 19.5% 19.0% yesterday 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% today 80.5% 83.5% 19.5% 16.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.4%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 7.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$54.9K92.0%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 92%/93%91.7%venue gap0.3pp7-day move+0.5ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.5K9%Kalshi791K contracts · 7.9%/8.0%9%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 91.7% 9.0% 9.00% 6 days ago 90.5% 91.2% 10.0% 8.80% 5 days ago 91.5% 92.0% 9.0% 9.00% 4 days ago 91.5% 92.3% 8.5% 8.80% 3 days ago 91.5% 92.2% 8.5% 8.10% 2 days ago 92.5% 91.9% 8.5% 8.70% yesterday 92.5% 92.2% 8.5% 7.40% today 92.5% 92.4% 8.5% 7.95% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
gTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is up about eight points.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 58% · Ken Paxton 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$590K49.5%Kalshi5.6M contracts · 57%/58%51.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+10.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$746K49.5%Kalshi7.6M contracts · 42%/43%50.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-8.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.5% 51.0% 49.5% 50.0% 6 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 51.0% 45.5% 50.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 44.5% 50.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 54.0% 41.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 54.0% 41.5% 47.0% yesterday 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% today 59.5% 57.5% 41.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
tAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about six points in five days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 22.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.65%, Kalshi 0.40%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 22% · Tom Begich 0.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$175K27.5%Kalshi52.7K contracts · 21%/23%—venue gap—7-day move-6.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$162K1.35%Kalshi242K contracts · 0.3%/0.5%—venue gap—7-day move-0.7ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 27.5% — 1.35% — 6 days ago 26.5% — 1.40% 0.1% 5 days ago 27.0% 27% 1.35% 0.1% 4 days ago 26.5% 24% 1.30% 0.3% 3 days ago 24.0% 25% 1.20% 0.3% 2 days ago 23.5% 24% 0.80% 0.3% yesterday 21.5% 26% 0.65% 0.3% today 21.5% 22% 0.65% 0.4% vArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.3K87%Kalshi332K contracts · 87%/88%87%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+0.5ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K12.5%Kalshi259K contracts · 12%/13%14.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 87.0% 12.5% 13.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 12.0% 3 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% yesterday 87.5% 89.0% 12.5% 13.0% today 87.5% 87.5% 12.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.1K81%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 79%/80%80%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.5ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.6K19%Kalshi511K contracts · 21%/22%21%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.0% 80.0% 19.0% 21.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 79.5% 81.0% 20.0% 20.0% 2 days ago 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 20.0% yesterday 79.5% 78.0% 20.5% 22.0% today 79.5% 79.5% 20.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 78% · Zach Lahn 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.9K76.5%Kalshi346K contracts · 78%/79%79.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.8K23.5%Kalshi340K contracts · 22%/23%24.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 76.5% 79.0% 23.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 22.0% 5 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 77.0% 77.0% 24.0% 23.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 79.0% 23.0% 23.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% yesterday 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% today 77.5% 78.5% 23.5% 22.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 91.3%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 7.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 8.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.6K92.5%Kalshi74.0K contracts · 91%/92%91.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$157K6.5%Kalshi138K contracts · 7.7%/7.8%—venue gap—7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 6.5% — 6 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 7.0% 12.00% 5 days ago 92.0% 92.6% 6.5% 9.10% 4 days ago 92.0% 92.8% 6.5% 12.00% 3 days ago 92.0% 89.0% 9.0% 12.00% 2 days ago 92.0% 92.2% 8.5% 8.60% yesterday 92.0% 92.5% 8.5% 8.80% today 92.0% 91.3% 8.5% 7.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.0%, Kalshi 92.6%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.0K94.5%Kalshi374K contracts · 92%/93%92.2%venue gap2.3pp7-day move-0.5ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$68.6K6.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 7.4%/7.7%8.7%venue gap2.2pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 92.2% 6.5% 8.70% 6 days ago 94.5% 92.1% 6.5% 9.30% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.2% 6.5% 8.90% 4 days ago 93.5% 92.3% 6.5% 8.50% 3 days ago 93.5% 92.3% 6.5% 8.20% 2 days ago 94.0% 92.5% 6.5% 7.90% yesterday 94.0% 92.6% 6.5% 8.10% today 94.0% 92.6% 6.5% 7.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
eOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 57.0%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$93.4K55.5%Kalshi797K contracts · 56%/58%56.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K45%Kalshi856K contracts · 42%/43%45%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 56% 45.0% 45.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 57% 45.0% 44.0% 5 days ago 55.0% 57% 44.0% 47.0% 4 days ago 55.0% 55% 44.0% 47.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 55% 45.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 54% 43.5% 47.0% yesterday 55.5% 56% 43.5% 45.0% today 55.5% 57% 43.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.90%, Kalshi 97.15%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.60%, Kalshi 3.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K97.1%Kalshi102K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move-0.2ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.1K2.3%Kalshi401K contracts · 2.9%/3.2%—venue gap—7-day move+0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.10% — 2.30% — 6 days ago 96.90% 95.10% 2.25% 4.20% 5 days ago 97.00% 97.50% 2.40% 3.30% 4 days ago 96.60% 97.10% 2.55% 3.40% 3 days ago 96.25% 97.20% 2.95% 3.30% 2 days ago 96.95% 96.50% 2.60% 2.90% yesterday 96.90% 97.50% 2.60% 3.40% today 96.90% 97.15% 2.60% 3.05% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 78.65%, Kalshi 78.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 79% · Gina Hinojosa 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.6K81.1%Kalshi212K contracts · 78%/79%83.0%venue gap1.9pp7-day move-2.5ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.5K18.5%Kalshi752K contracts · 21%/22%19.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.10% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 83.10% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% 5 days ago 83.30% 83.0% 16.0% 19.0% 4 days ago 82.90% 82.0% 16.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 77.45% 84.0% 22.0% 17.0% 2 days ago 78.65% 83.0% 22.5% 18.0% yesterday 78.65% 77.0% 22.5% 25.0% today 78.65% 78.5% 22.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 82% · Tom Tiffany 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$316K82.5%Kalshi467K contracts · 80%/81%81.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$277K17.5%Kalshi726K contracts · 19%/20%20.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 16.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 15.5% 19.0% yesterday 83.5% 82.0% 15.5% 20.0% today 83.5% 80.5% 15.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news2 stories
He keeps a board seat as chair emeritus, less than a year after handing the CEO job to Greg Abel.
Warren Buffett told Berkshire Hathaway on Friday, Sept. 18, that he is giving up the chairmanship he has held since taking control of the company in 1965. He turned 96 last month. He stays on the board as chair emeritus, and his son Howard Buffett, long designated as the family's non-executive successor, becomes chairman.
The move separates the last piece of authority Buffett held from day-to-day control. Greg Abel took over as chief executive earlier in 2026, less than a year before this announcement. Buffett's own explanation, per the BBC's account of his remarks: "Father Time always wins."
Where it stands. Abel runs the operating businesses and decides how Berkshire spends its cash.
What the chair emeritus seat leaves Buffett
- Voting control through his remaining Class A shares, which he has been giving away to charity in annual batches
- No operating role: capital allocation now sits with CEO Greg Abel
Related reading
[NOTABLE TAKE] Buffett's six-decade record is an argument for public markets, the WSJ editorial board says
The opinion page frames six decades of compounding returns at Berkshire as a rebuttal to the claim that public stock markets reward only short-term trading.
Ongoing1 earlier update18 days
This story has run 2 times over 18 days, starting Sep 1.
- Four four-star commanders reportedly objected to keeping 50,000-plus troops in the Middle East
- Pentagon casualty database omits two U.S. service member deaths in the Middle East during the Iran war — this issue
The Post says both men died on missions unrelated to the fighting with Iran; the Pentagon has not confirmed the account.
The omission. More U.S. troops have died in the Middle East since the war with Iran began than the Defense Department has acknowledged in public, The Washington Post reported on Friday, Sept. 18. The Pentagon's casualty database — the running public list of service member deaths, the one families and reporters use to count the war's cost — leaves out at least two men who were deployed to the region and died there while on missions unconnected to the conflict, according to that report.
The officials. Defense officials told The Post they were frustrated that the deaths do not appear in the database. The Post identified one of the two men; his name and unit could not be independently confirmed, and this account does not repeat them.
Still open. The Pentagon has not responded to the report. It has not said whether the two names will be added, how many deaths in the region it counts as war-related, or how it draws that line.
Catch up
- Aug. 17 — Centcom answered complaints about conditions aboard the carrier Lincoln, at sea 260 days, by citing its low count of mental health cases.
- Aug. 25-26 — ICE detained the father of a deployed Navy sailor after about 20 years in the U.S then released him a day later.
- Sept. 1 — Four four-star commanders were reported to have objected to keeping more than 50,000 troops in the Middle East.
- Sept. 3 — The Pentagon pulled decades of Defense Secretary orders records off its classified SIPR network, days after that reporting.