Advisers say Trump has privately accepted blunt assessments that Republicans are in trouble, with cost-of-living the dominant issue.
20 states are already mailing ballots — including Texas, Michigan and North Carolina, the three with the most contested Senate races — and in-person early voting opened Friday, Sept. 18. Election Day is 45 days out, on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026; the primaries are finished, so the matchups are set.
The Republican worry. Advisers told the Washington Post that Trump has privately accepted blunt assessments of his party's poor odds — some of it his own making. The cost of living is the issue voters keep naming. Control of Congress for the rest of his term is the stake. ([TS]Gallup: below-50% approval presidents lose 37 House seats on average, versus 14 above)
In-person early voting opened Friday, Sept. 18, in Virginia, Minnesota and South Dakota — the first states to start.
How much of each Senate state votes before Election Day
- Texas, 2024 ballots cast by mail: about 3%
- Michigan, ballots cast early in November 2024: 60%; North Carolina, cast early in 2022: 58.1%
- National 2024 split — mail 29.0%, early in person 30.7%, Election Day 39.6%