News news5 stories
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Monday, Sept. 21 that a new U.S. attack would change the weapons and the geography of the war, now in its seventh month.
The three options. Trump said Monday, Sept. 21 that he is in a "deciding mode" on Iran, naming three options: wiping the country out, letting it rot economically, or making a deal. Asked whether he would meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (President, Iran) at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, he said he would "probably" be open to it. Iran confirmed Pezeshkian will attend.
Tehran's warning. Hours earlier, Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said a fresh American assault would prompt Iran to change both the weaponry and the geography of the war, which began Feb. 28 and is now near its seventh month.
The war's costs. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most traffic and Houthi forces have bombed an east-west oil pipeline, keeping fuel prices high. Oil fell Monday on the prospect of talks. ([TS]Brent was near $97 Monday; it hasn't closed above $100 since May, per market data.)
"My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave."Donald Trump, to Fox News
Still open. What Tehran would want in return for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane most Gulf oil must pass through, has not been made public.
How we got here
- Sept. 1 — U.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast; Trump said a bigger attack was "waiting in the wings."
- Sept. 2-3 — About 100 Iranian targets hit; Iran fired at U.S. bases in four countries; Iranian officials counted at least 18 dead, including four at a wedding compound in Kuhestak.
- Sept. 5-6 — U.S. destroyed or disabled three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier and destroyer; no Americans hurt.
- Sept. 8-10 — Iran declared a restricted zone near Hormuz, doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest users, and fired 20 missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan; Jordan intercepted 18.
- Sept. 14 — An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing one; Trump smirked and said "I don't want to say" when asked if the U.S. did it.
- Sept. 20 — A supertanker shortage and the hit on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline squeezed fuel; U.S. gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon, per AAA.
What the blockade did to Iran's oil shipments
- Crude loadings inside the Gulf fell from 1.83 million barrels a day in March to 255,000 a day in August
- Iranian crude sitting on ships outside the blockade dropped from 90 million barrels in mid-July to 29 million in mid-September
Related reading
The IMF puts Iranian inflation near 69% this year and a 5.4% contraction, the worst since the 1980s; the minimum monthly wage is worth about $72.
Read more about: Gulf states are pressing Washington for a reset with Iran rather than more strikes
The UAE is calling for a "new mindset" and Qatar for a regional security framework; both are absorbing the freight and insurance costs of the closed strait.
The suit names Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and two other advisers, and a hearing on the outlets' emergency request to block the ban is set for Wednesday, Sept. 23.
The suit. CNN, MS NOW and Politico sued the Trump administration on Monday, Sept. 21 in federal district court in Washington, asking a judge to declare the administration's ban on their White House reporters unconstitutional and to order their access restored. The suit names four defendants: Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and two other top advisers. The complaint alleges First Amendment retaliation and viewpoint discrimination plus a Fifth Amendment due-process violation. The outlets are represented by Theodore Boutrous Jr. of Gibson Dunn.
The badges. Secret Service officers took the reporters' badges at the gate on Saturday, Sept. 19, a day after Trump announced the ban on Truth Social. MS NOW's Akayla Gardner said the officer told her only that her badge was disabled and that the decision was "above him."
The pool. Hours later the White House television pool — the five networks, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News and NBC, that take turns supplying live footage to everyone else — suspended its coverage. Trump was inaudible at a Monday press conference carried only on White House-supplied video with no usable audio, and C-SPAN skipped a helipad event for lack of a feed. CNN had been scheduled to run Monday's pool camera but was left off the rotation the White House published Sunday, Sept. 20.
“The White House is not instituting an assault on the Free Press, something which I cherish. It is instituting an assault on the FAKE NEWS, something that has grown like Cancer.”Donald Trump, on Truth Social ([TS]Same judge, Timothy Kelly, drew this case — and he gave CNN a TRO in three days last time.)
What next. Judge Timothy Kelly, who ruled for CNN's Jim Acosta in 2018, hears the emergency motion Wednesday, Sept. 23.
How we got here
- Fri., Sept. 18 — Trump announced on Truth Social that CNN, MS NOW and Politico would lose White House access, naming no single story and citing "cumulative stories over the last two years."
- Sat., Sept. 19 — Secret Service officers turned the three outlets' reporters away at the gate and confiscated their hard passes; all three said they would sue.
What the last three credential fights actually won
- Acosta, 2018: pass restored 12 days after it was pulled, with no appeal
- AP, 2025: Judge Trevor McFadden's injunction came 46 days after filing; the D.C. Circuit stayed most of it on June 6, leaving it only for the East Room
- Sherrill v. Knight, 1977: won reporters notice and written reasons, not a press pass
Red take
CNN, MS NOW and Politico are asking Judge Timothy Kelly to order the executive branch to admit specific journalists to the president's residence — a power no court should hold over any president, of either party. Concede the uncomfortable part: Trump cited 'cumulative stories over the last two years' and named no single one, and retaliation for coverage is genuinely unlawful. But Jim Acosta won in 2018 on process, not on a property right in a badge, and the fix there was notice and a hearing. Being left off the rotation the White House published Sunday costs these outlets proximity, not publication. Nothing they printed was stopped.
Blue take
There is no constitutional right to a particular chair in the briefing room, and a president may reshuffle the pool. But Secret Service officers confiscated badges at the gate on Saturday, Sept. 19, one day after a Truth Social post that named no single story — that is not scheduling, that is a penalty for coverage, and the Constitution bars the government from rationing access by viewpoint. The cost is not CNN's convenience. With the five-network pool suspended, Trump was inaudible Monday and C-SPAN lost a helipad event entirely. Judge Timothy Kelly restored Jim Acosta's pass in 2018; the outlets ask him Wednesday, Sept. 23 to do it again.
Related reading
The administration's release argues the First Amendment protects the right to publish but does not entitle an outlet to a hard pass, a briefing room seat or a pool slot. It lists prior Democratic-era restrictions, cites no court case, and says a 2023 credentialing change cut off more than 440 reporters.
Vance said the three outlets were not banned from reporting, only from special access — the administration's core answer to the viewpoint-discrimination claim. He cited a figure that 92% of their Trump coverage is negative.
Ongoing10 earlier updates13 days
This story has run 11 times over 13 days, starting Sep 9.
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
- Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
- UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
- UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
- UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead — this issue
CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper brought strike options to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday, Sept. 19; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had called Trump twice in one day ten days earlier (Sept. 9) asking for the strikes.
The decision. Trump spent the weekend of Sept. 19-21 weighing U.S. airstrikes on the Houthis, the armed movement that controls northern Yemen, and then said no, two U.S. officials told Axios. He agreed to hand the Saudis intelligence and targeting data. No American aircraft will fly.
The strait. The Houthis now hold both shores of the Bab al-Mandab, the 28-kilometer strait at the southern end of the Red Sea that every ship bound for the Suez Canal must pass. They have also widened their missile and drone attacks into Saudi Arabia, including the capital, Riyadh.
The war's civilian toll, per the UN:
- Displaced inside Yemen: more than 120,000
- Arrivals in Djibouti by boat: more than 3,000
- UN relief appeal for Yemen: about 20% funded, vs. 28.5% for last year's appeal
Where it stands. The Houthis told U.S. diplomats they will not close the strait or fire on American ships. The State Department told Americans across the Middle East on Saturday, Sept. 19, to raise their guard after the Riyadh attack. ([TS]They've held to that since the May 2025 truce, per Yemeni sources — the Saudi half of the pledge doesn't exist.)
[PREVIOUSLY]
What the 2025 U.S. bombing campaign bought, and did not
- Duration: March 15 to May 6, 2025
- Strikes flown: about 1,100
- Munitions cost: at least $1 billion
What the 2025 U.S. bombing campaign bought, and did not
- Duration: March 15 to May 6, 2025
- Strikes flown: about 1,100
- Planned length before a truce cut it short: 8 to 10 months
- MQ-9 Reaper drones the Houthis shot down: about six
Related reading
Under the War Powers Resolution, a president must tell Congress within 48 hours of sending U.S. forces into combat. That notice is the only listed contract that would have to move if American aircraft joined the fight; nothing on the board prices a U.S. strike directly.
Last year's Yemen appeal closed at 28.5% funded. Some 15,000 emergency kits are staged but blocked by road closures, and Mokha port is shut.
Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez, 28, was discharged from the hospital into ICE custody and driven about 130 miles to the Pearsall detention center, where DHS is investigating its own officer.
The shooting. Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez, a 28-year-old Venezuelan man who has lived in the U.S. for two years, was shot once in the back during an ICE traffic stop in north Austin shortly before 1 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 20, while making a DoorDash delivery. Emergency services were called at 12:56 p.m. Video posted online appears to show an ICE officer get out of his car and fire at Garcés Pérez's car three times. Officials described the wound as being to the torso; his lawyer says the round went in between his shoulder blades.
Where he is. He was released from the hospital into ICE custody and taken to the South Texas ICE Processing Center in Pearsall, roughly 130 miles southwest of Austin. DHS says he was in the country illegally under a final order of removal. His attorney's spokesperson says he entered through a parole program, is seeking asylum and has no criminal record. ([TS]DHS hasn't answered the Guardian on the stop itself, his condition, or where he's held.)
"Bullet still lodged in his back. No pain meds."attorney Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch, who says he is being questioned at Pearsall
Where it stands. Homeland Security Investigations, a branch of ICE's own department, is leading the inquiry with FBI help; Austin police were not part of the operation. Texas officers fired pepper balls at people who gathered at the scene and detained several of them. Rep. Greg Casar (Rep-D Texas) has asked DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and acting ICE director David Venturella for a briefing and all body and dash camera footage by Sept. 28.
How we got here
- Sept. 2 — ICE said every field agent would have a body camera by Sept. 30; about 3,000 of 13,000 agents had one as of February.
- Sept. 7 — ICE logged more than 50,000 arrests for a second straight month, a first, with a rising share of people who have no criminal record.
- Sept. 11 — Latino and voting-rights groups and the city of Denver filed two suits to bar ICE from polling places.
- Sept. 18 — The White House pulled Lance Schroyer's nomination to run ICE after Senate Republicans blocked him, leaving the agency under an acting director.
- Sept. 20 — An ICE officer shot and wounded a man during a traffic stop in north Austin; state police fired pepper balls at protesters who gathered at the scene and detained several.
BackgroundWhat ICE's own force, care and footage rules allow
- Directive 19009.3 bars deadly force used only to stop someone running away, and requires a verbal warning when feasible.
- Detention standard 4.3 guarantees "medically necessary and appropriate" care, but names pain relief only for emergency dental work, and off-site surgery needs a payment authorization filed with ICE Health Service Corps first.
- The ICE director can delay footage release indefinitely under "specific and compelling circumstances," a phrase the policy never defines.
Related reading
Castro turned himself in Sept. 16 after Gov. Greg Abbott (Gov-R Texas) declined Hennepin County's warrant. He faces four counts of second-degree assault and one of falsely reporting a crime in the non-fatal shooting of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis. A separate federal case charges him with six counts of lying to the FBI.
Read more about: DHS inspector general is examining whether ICE policies contributed to deaths in detention%20Custody,%20FY%202022%20through%20the%20Second%20Quarter%20of%20FY%202026.pdf)
The June 24, 2026 memo says in-custody deaths have risen every year since fiscal 2022. ICE reported 33 in 2025 against 11 in 2024, and had counted 24 by Sept. 2 this year. Fieldwork began in July and covers October 2021 through March 2026.
FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the backup line was found cut at a New Jersey construction site; ground stops later expanded to JFK and LaGuardia, and departure delays ran up to 150 minutes.
The circuit. A circuit that carries radar and communication data for the Philadelphia air traffic control facility blew Monday morning, Sept. 21. When the backup cut in, officials found the backup line severed at a New Jersey construction site.
The ground stop. With controllers short of working frequencies, the FAA's only lever was to stop traffic: a ground stop at Newark Liberty, Philadelphia International and Teterboro around 10 a.m., then an expansion to JFK and LaGuardia while Northeast airspace closed for at least 30 minutes to swap the circuit. The swap did not take, leaving Newark and Philadelphia halted into the afternoon with no estimated resumption time. Departure delays ran up to 150 minutes.
The fiber. Verizon, which owned the fiber, said construction contractors working beside an Amtrak rail line dug up and cut its cable and that "Verizon bears no responsibility for this incident."
The reopening. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the lines were repaired and Northeast flights were resuming shortly after 5 p.m., about seven hours after the first ground stop. ([TS]That's a liability position, not a finding — no agency has said who pays for 900-plus canceled flights.)
"FAA technology outage is affecting all airlines in the Northeast... Flights that had been destined for Newark have either been held at their departure airport or diverted to alternative airports."United Airlines
Still open. No one has said who cut the cable — Duffy blamed an Amtrak crew, Amtrak pointed to a New Jersey Transit contractor, NJ Transit said its crew severed a cable at 9:45 a.m. but suggested a Verizon crew may be at fault. No investigative agency has been named.
What GAO told the FAA to fix, and DOT agreed to
- The Department of Transportation agreed to all nine recommendations in the GAO report released the same day, Monday, Sept. 21
- GAO found the FAA had completed no formal risk assessment for seven of the eight aviation communication systems it reviewed
- FAA work with industry partners fully met 2 of 8 leading practices for collaboration and partially met the other 6
Related reading
That was over half of Newark's scheduled departures, and United canceled all its remaining domestic mainline and United Express flights there Monday afternoon.
Read more about: Ron Wyden (Sen-D Oregon) says the FAA's failure to require secure aircraft communications threatens national security
Wyden, who sits on the intelligence committee, wants new encryption standards "as soon as possible"; the FAA's parent department has set no date.
Quick bites16
DOJ's lead prosecutor on the 'grand conspiracy' probe of Trump's foes quit after 5 months and 0 charges
PBS NEWSHOURJustice Department officials have sent a flurry of subpoenas to former law enforcement and intelligence officials since diGenova's exit, with grand jury testimony expected in coming weeks in Fort Pierce, Florida, before a Trump-appointed judge.
What the probe is trying to build
- The probe seeks to fold separate FBI investigations of Trump — Russian election interference and the classified documents at Mar-a-Lago — into one conspiracy case.
- Retired federal prosecutor Randall Eliason: "there's no basis for an allegation that any one of them was actually a criminal act against Trump."
Federal grand jury subpoenas LA County for voter records on dozens of suspected noncitizens
LOS ANGELES TIMESA federal grand jury has ordered Los Angeles County to hand over voter registration records on dozens of people. The subpoenas do not say who is under investigation.
Vermont jury convicts Jason Eaton of attempted murder in 2023 shooting of three Palestinian students
NBC NEWSJurors rejected Eaton's insanity defense, and the 51-year-old now faces up to life in prison. He had claimed the CIA and Mossad sent him orders over FM radio. No hate crime charges were ever filed, despite calls for a hate crime investigation.
- The three students, all 20 at the time, were shot in Burlington in November 2023; Hisham Awartani was paralyzed from the waist down.
- Jurors deliberated several hours after a weeklong trial with testimony from the three wounded men and psychiatric experts for both sides.
- Eaton is jailed pending sentencing, which has not been scheduled.
Collins and Murray reject draft order giving political appointees control of NIH grants
THE HILLUpdateThe White House is drafting an executive order to move NIH grant approval to a new board. Trump told budget director Russ Vought to build it. On Sept. 20 he asked for a plan that would give an outside panel veto power over NIH research grants.
Catch up
Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) objects. Putting politics into grantmaking by order or guidance is "contrary to congressional intent," she says. Ranking member Patty Murray (Sen-D Washington) warns that one appointee could kill a cancer study. There would be no scientific reason for it.
Also in the draft
- Officials are also weighing a separate commission to review NIH awards.
- An analysis cited by PBS says the administration has cut or frozen grants in every state.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 21.
- Trump requests plan giving outside panel veto power over NIH research grants
- UpdateCollins and Murray reject draft order giving political appointees control of NIH grants — this issue
GOP appropriator Mike Simpson says he won't fund Trump's 250-foot arch from the Pentagon budget
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateMike Simpson (Rep-R Idaho), a senior House appropriator, said he will not put defense money toward Trump's arch. The military is already short on cash, he said, and the White House should ask Congress for its own funding. Trump had recast the arch as a security structure holding drones, snipers and ammunition.
On Sep. 20, Trump said on Truth Social that his planned 250-foot arch near the Lincoln Memorial would store and deploy drones and snipers and hold ammunition "for National Security purposes."
- Trump's fiscal 2027 budget seeks roughly $1.5 trillion for defense, including about $1.15 trillion in discretionary funding; full-year FY2027 defense funding is not enacted.
- The House Appropriations Committee voted along party lines in June to reject an amendment blocking the arch.
- The arch would stand 250 feet between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery, less than a mile from the Pentagon.
Currently showing U.S. national defense expendituresU.S. national defense expenditures
US proposes an AI incident hotline with China; next talks set for Shenzhen in November
NBC NEWSTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. proposed a way for the two countries to warn each other about AI incidents that reach the national-security level. He made the pitch to Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York, days before Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. USTR Jamieson Greer said the AI talks will not change U.S. export controls on advanced chips. China's Xinhua readout left the proposal out.
- Bessent named the shared dangers as uncontrollable agents and non-state cyber and bioweapons actors
- Both sides also agreed to operationalize the "Board of Trade" Trump and Xi discussed in Beijing in May
- Greer said lower tariffs could cover consumer and farm goods, energy products and medical devices
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 21.
- UpdateU.S. and China open New York talks on trade, AI and critical minerals
- US proposes an AI incident hotline with China; next talks set for Shenzhen in November — this issue
Three Senate Republicans press leaders to vote on AI safety bills as Trump calls AI fears a 'hoax'
POLITICOJosh Hawley (Sen-R Missouri) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) asked Senate leaders for a floor vote on their AI risk-evaluation bill. Hawley also called a Judiciary subcommittee hearing on AI-powered Flock cameras. He is looking into how one OpenAI model acted in tests.
ICE detainees with final removal orders no longer appear in its public detainee locator
@REICHLINMELNICKImmigration enforcementICE last week stopped listing detainees with final removal orders in the Online Detainee Locator System, says immigration analyst Aaron Reichlin-Melnick. Lawyers, families and consulates use that public database to find where someone is held. ICE has not explained the change.
Federal agents detained a US citizen in Evanston, Illinois by mistake; he was hospitalized with head, neck and teeth injuries
THE GUARDIANEvanston officers answering a report of an argument just before 10 a.m. Sunday found the man on the ground. A plainclothes agent said he had been detained for fingerprinting after refusing to show ID and resisting. Agents then found he was not their target and was a US citizen, and let him go.
- Five federal agents were working the area in separate unmarked vehicles, per the agent at the scene.
- Witnesses told police they believed the agents were ICE; the agent never named his agency and DHS did not respond to a request for comment.
- Officers photographed and documented his injuries at the hospital.
Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateInflation and the FedGoolsbee said beating inflation will mean pushing employment below target. He called that a painful trade-off. It is "exactly the kind of painful trade-off between employment and inflation," he said, "that stagflationary shocks always impose on the central bank." The Fed raised its rate a quarter point last week. The new range is 3.75% to 4.00%. Goolsbee spoke in London. Oil price shocks from the Iran war and tariffs leave no painless path back to the Fed's 2% target, he said. Inflation ran at a 3.4% annual rate in August. Chair Kevin Warsh says otherwise. "I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets," he said last week, "to achieve our objective."
Catch up
- Sep. 11 — August consumer prices rose 0.4% for the month and held at 3.4% annually, with gasoline driving the monthly jump; core inflation slowed to 2.4%.
- Sep. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some nations unless the Fed lowered rates.
- Sep. 14 — The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014%, its highest since October 2023, as Brent crude hit $108.50.
- Sep. 16 — The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023, on a 12–0 vote.
- Sep. 17 — Trump called for rates of "1%, or less" and blamed the Fed's board rather than Warsh, the chair he picked.
- Sep. 21 — The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.95%, its highest in more than a year and a half.
- St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said more rate hikes are likely needed to quell inflation.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is "still too high" even stripping out energy and food.
- Goolsbee rejected cutting rates to help the U.S. finance its debt.
4 earlier issues
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
Ongoing5
This story has run 6 times over 10 days, starting Sep 12.
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
- UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target — this issue
Currently showing Annual CPI against the Fed's 2% targetAnnual CPI against the Fed's 2% targetUN rapporteur finds reasonable grounds that 68 U.S. boat strikes killing 223 were crimes against humanity
THE GUARDIANBen Saul called the strikes serial extrajudicial killings and rejected Trump's self-defense claim to Congress, finding no armed attack on the U.S. that would trigger that right; the latest strike, Saturday in the Caribbean, killed four.
- 68 strikes, 223 dead since September 2025 per Saul's report; a Washington Office on Latin America tally counts 234 killed in 66 attacks.
- The operation, "Southern Spear," began in early September 2025; officials have not offered definitive evidence the targeted boats were trafficking.
- Southern Command said Saturday's target had "confirmed intelligence" of narco-trafficking and called the four dead "narco-terrorists."
US approved visas for Iran's delegation to the UN but denied them to Abbas, who will speak by video
WASHINGTON EXAMINERIran warMahmoud Abbas will not travel to New York for the high-level week and will speak to the assembly by video link instead.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Sep 18.
- US grants visas for Iran's president Pezeshkian and foreign minister Araghchi while barring the Palestinian delegation for a second year
- US approved visas for Iran's delegation to the UN but denied them to Abbas, who will speak by video — this issue
Paramount settles with 12 states, clearing its $110 billion Warner Bros. Discovery takeover
NBC NEWSUpdateParamount Skydance's takeover is cleared after the company settled with the 12 state attorneys general who sued to block it. Shares of both companies rose more than 10%. Paramount agreed to release 30 films a year for two years and 32 a year for the next three, and to pay $30 million for each film it misses. It will also spend $300 million a year on U.S. production for five years, hold its Los Angeles studio lots for five years, and set up independent editorial boards over CBS News and CNN.
The 12 states sued July 13 to block the deal. An antitrust trial was set for early March before Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín. As of Sept. 20, several attorneys general still had not agreed to settle.
What else is in the deal
- If Paramount misses the release requirements, it must sell the Miramax film studio.
- Five of the 12 states sit on the committee that monitors and enforces compliance.
- Missing a Sept. 30 close would have cost Paramount 25 cents a share per quarter, over $600 million every three months.
Pennsylvania governor bars state permit review of data centers until local zoning and new power are secured
WASHINGTON EXAMINERJosh Shapiro (Gov-D Pennsylvania) signed the order. It holds state permit review until a project clears local zoning and lines up new power. In August, Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R-MI) called for a one-year freeze on new data centers. Grid operator PJM covers 13 states. Starting in mid-2027, it plans to cut off new large loads that have not lined up their own power for tight days.
Where else it's biting
- Vineland, New Jersey issued stop-work orders in August on a Microsoft-linked campus. Crews had installed equipment without local permits, and the generators had no state air permit.
- New Mexico's land commissioner rejected the pipeline for Oracle and OpenAI's Project Jupiter twice this year, pushing it to 2027.
Senate GOP campaign arm outspent Democrats 46-to-1 on ads in August
BLOOMBERGThe NRSC spent 46 times what Democrats did on August ads, using coordinated money the Supreme Court's summer ruling freed from limits. Republicans are now set to outspend Democrats on air in 8 of 9 close Senate races.
Where the money is going
- A confidential Senate Leadership Fund memo says it needs $7 million more to boost Rep. Ashley Hinson (Rep-R Iowa)
- Senate Majority PAC, which took $9 million from Soros-funded Democracy PAC, has pledged $30 million to elect Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)
Senators say Kansas and Nebraska Senate seats are now in play; Democrats need 4 to flip the chamber
THE HILLAn unnamed Democratic challenger is running even with Kansas Republican Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas), and Democrats need a net gain of four seats on Nov. 3 without losing any of their own. The Hill ties the tighter map to rising energy prices.
- Bloomberg: the top Senate Republican PAC told donors Iowa, long a GOP hold, is at risk.
- Bloomberg: Jon Ossoff (Sen-D Georgia) leads in polling and fundraising in Georgia.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 42 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 66%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.8pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 90% | 90% | 61% | 59% |
| 6 days ago | 91% | 89% | 61% | 59% |
| 5 days ago | 93% | 90% | 61% | 60% |
| 4 days ago | 93% | 91% | 64% | 60% |
| 3 days ago | 93% | 90% | 66% | 61% |
| 2 days ago | 93% | 91% | 67% | 63% |
| yesterday | 93% | 92% | 66% | 65% |
| today | 93% | 92% | 66% | 65% |
3 closest races
zNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 53% · Aaron Ford 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$116K54%Kalshi275K contracts · 53%/54%56%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-3.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$53.4K45.5%Kalshi517K contracts · 46%/47%44.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.0% 56.0% 45.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 54.0% 56.0% 45.0% 45.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 52.0% 57.0% 48.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 55.0% 50.5% 46.0% yesterday 50.5% 53.0% 50.5% 47.0% today 50.5% 53.5% 50.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 55% · Josh Turek 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$262K60.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 55%/56%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-7.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$303K39.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 44%/45%40.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 61.0% 61.0% 39.0% 40.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 60.0% 43.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 61.0% 49.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 54.0% 47.5% 45.0% yesterday 53.5% 55.0% 46.5% 46.0% today 53.5% 55.5% 46.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 54% · Rick Jackson 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.7K56.5%Kalshi512K contracts · 53%/54%53.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-1.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.0K43.5%Kalshi501K contracts · 46%/47%47.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 55.0% 39.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 39.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 60.0% 44.5% 42.0% yesterday 55.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47.0% today 55.5% 53.5% 44.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
tAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 73% · Dan Sullivan 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$633K72.5%Kalshi157K contracts · 72%/73%69.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$283K27.5%Kalshi116K contracts · 27%/28%31.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 27.5% 31.0% 6 days ago 74.5% 70.0% 26.5% 34.0% 5 days ago 74.5% 70.0% 26.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 26.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 73.0% 19.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 78.0% 21.5% 22.0% yesterday 73.5% 76.0% 27.5% 26.0% today 73.5% 72.5% 27.5% 27.5% abGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.4%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.4%, Kalshi 5.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 5.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$70.7K93.5%Kalshi404K contracts · 94%/95%94.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.0K7.05%Kalshi968K contracts · 5.5%/5.9%7.50%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.6ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 94.0% 7.05% 7.5% 6 days ago 94.0% 94.0% 5.35% 6.0% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.2% 5.40% 7.0% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.3% 5.85% 6.8% 3 days ago 94.5% 93.9% 5.85% 7.0% 2 days ago 94.5% 93.4% 5.40% 6.1% yesterday 94.5% 94.2% 5.40% 5.4% today 94.5% 94.4% 5.40% 5.7% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.0%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 73% · Susan Collins 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$936K70.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 72%/74%67.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+3.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$613K29.5%Kalshi3.1M contracts · 27%/28%33.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 67% 29.5% 33.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 68% 30.5% 33.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 67% 30.5% 34.0% 4 days ago 70.0% 68% 30.5% 34.0% 3 days ago 73.5% 68% 26.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 72% 26.5% 30.0% yesterday 73.5% 74% 26.5% 28.0% today 73.5% 73% 26.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about nine points.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 73.0%, Kalshi 73.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.0%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 73% · Mike Rogers 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$571K65.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 73%/74%65.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+7.5ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$443K35.5%Kalshi2.4M contracts · 26%/27%37.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-8.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 35.5% 37.0% 6 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 34.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 66.5% 66.0% 33.5% 34.0% 4 days ago 67.0% 67.0% 34.0% 35.0% 3 days ago 75.5% 67.0% 24.5% 34.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 27.0% 29.0% yesterday 73.0% 74.0% 27.0% 26.0% today 73.0% 73.5% 27.0% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$150K67.5%Kalshi793K contracts · 67%/68%69.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$89.4K32.5%Kalshi606K contracts · 34%/35%31.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 6 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 5 days ago 68.0% 69.0% 32.5% 32.0% 4 days ago 68.5% 69.0% 32.5% 32.0% 3 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 68.0% 32.5% 31.0% yesterday 67.5% 67.0% 32.5% 35.0% today 67.5% 67.5% 32.5% 34.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 16.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 86% · John E. Sununu 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$114K80.5%Kalshi351K contracts · 85%/86%80.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+6.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$112K19.5%Kalshi643K contracts · 15%/17%20.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20% 6 days ago 80.5% 84.0% 19.5% 18% 5 days ago 80.5% 84.0% 19.5% 18% 4 days ago 82.5% 83.0% 17.5% 17% 3 days ago 85.0% 83.0% 14.5% 18% 2 days ago 85.5% 85.0% 14.0% 17% yesterday 86.5% 85.0% 12.5% 16% today 86.5% 85.5% 12.5% 16% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 6.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 94% · Michael Whatley 6.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$94.9K92.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 93%/94%92.2%venue gap0.3pp7-day move+2.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$80.7K8.5%Kalshi857K contracts · 6.6%/6.8%7.4%venue gap1.1pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 92.20% 8.5% 7.4% 6 days ago 92.5% 92.60% 8.5% 8.0% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.70% 6.5% 8.0% 4 days ago 92.5% 92.10% 7.5% 8.0% 3 days ago 94.5% 92.70% 6.5% 7.9% 2 days ago 94.5% 93.00% 6.5% 7.0% yesterday 94.5% 93.50% 6.5% 6.5% today 94.5% 93.45% 6.5% 6.7% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 60% · Jon Husted 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$419K54.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 59%/60%55.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+7.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$301K45.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 40%/41%46.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-8.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 57.0% 40.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 62.5% 61.0% 36.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 62.5% 60.0% 36.5% 40.0% yesterday 61.5% 60.0% 37.5% 40.0% today 61.5% 59.5% 37.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 59% · Ken Paxton 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$687K59.5%Kalshi5.9M contracts · 58%/59%57.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$795K41.5%Kalshi8.1M contracts · 42%/43%44.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 41.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 62.5% 60.0% 39.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 38.5% 42.0% 2 days ago 62.5% 59.0% 38.5% 42.0% yesterday 61.5% 59.0% 39.5% 43.0% today 61.5% 58.5% 39.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
afAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 18.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.10%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 19% · Tom Begich 0.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$183K23.5%Kalshi56.2K contracts · 17%/19%26.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-4.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$166K0.8%Kalshi244K contracts · 0.3%/0.4%0.3%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 23.5% 26% 0.80% 0.30% 6 days ago 13.5% 21% 0.40% 0.30% 5 days ago 13.0% 13% 0.15% 0.40% 4 days ago 14.5% 12% 0.65% 0.30% 3 days ago 15.5% 13% 0.80% 0.30% 2 days ago 15.5% 16% 1.05% 0.30% yesterday 19.5% 17% 1.10% 0.40% today 19.5% 18% 1.10% 0.35% ahArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.1K87.5%Kalshi340K contracts · 89%/90%89.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.8K12.5%Kalshi271K contracts · 11%/12%14.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 89.0% 12.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 11.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 11.5% 12.0% yesterday 88.5% 90.0% 12.5% 12.0% today 88.5% 89.5% 10.5% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
alFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 73% · David Jolly 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$84.2K79.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 73%/74%78.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-7.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$94.4K20%Kalshi655K contracts · 26%/27%22%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+7.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 79.5% 78.0% 20.0% 22.0% 6 days ago 79.5% 79.0% 20.5% 22.0% 5 days ago 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 22.0% 4 days ago 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 22.0% 3 days ago 74.5% 81.0% 20.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 77.0% 26.5% 24.0% yesterday 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 27.0% today 72.5% 73.5% 27.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 83.0%, Kalshi 82.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 83% · Zach Lahn 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.3K77.5%Kalshi380K contracts · 82%/83%79.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+5.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.7K23.5%Kalshi370K contracts · 17%/18%21.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 23.0% 5 days ago 77.5% 80.0% 23.5% 22.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 22.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 83.0% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% yesterday 83.0% 83.0% 16.5% 18.0% today 83.0% 82.5% 16.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.7%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 93% · John James 7.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.6K92.0%Kalshi76.5K contracts · 93%/93%92.5%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$157K8.5%Kalshi151K contracts · 7.0%/8.6%8.8%venue gap0.3pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 92.5% 8.5% 8.8% 6 days ago 91.5% 91.6% 8.5% 7.7% 5 days ago 92.0% 92.7% 8.5% 9.6% 4 days ago 92.0% 90.8% 8.5% 8.6% 3 days ago 92.0% 91.0% 6.5% 8.1% 2 days ago 92.5% 92.8% 6.5% 8.0% yesterday 92.5% 92.7% 6.5% 8.9% today 92.5% 92.7% 6.5% 7.8% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 93.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 6.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.3K94.0%Kalshi395K contracts · 94%/94%92.6%venue gap1.4pp7-day move+1.5ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$71.8K6.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 6.2%/6.3%8.1%venue gap1.6pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.0% 92.60% 6.5% 8.10% 6 days ago 94.0% 93.10% 6.5% 7.80% 5 days ago 94.5% 92.50% 6.5% 7.40% 4 days ago 94.5% 93.10% 6.5% 7.40% 3 days ago 95.0% 93.20% 5.5% 6.70% 2 days ago 95.0% 93.50% 5.0% 6.50% yesterday 95.5% 94.20% 5.0% 6.30% today 95.5% 93.85% 4.5% 6.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 62% · Vivek Ramaswamy 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$100K55.5%Kalshi829K contracts · 61%/62%56.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+6.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K43.5%Kalshi915K contracts · 39%/40%45.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 60.0% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 41.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 38.5% 41.0% yesterday 61.5% 62.0% 38.5% 40.0% today 61.5% 61.5% 38.5% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.45%, Kalshi 97.30%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.95%, Kalshi 2.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 2.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.95%Kalshi102K contracts · 97%/97%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.4K2.95%Kalshi401K contracts · 2.8%/2.9%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.95% — 2.95% — 6 days ago 96.55% — 2.60% 3.40% 5 days ago 96.65% 96.5% 2.60% 3.40% 4 days ago 96.80% 97.5% 2.60% 3.50% 3 days ago 96.80% 96.8% 2.60% 2.80% 2 days ago 96.45% 96.4% 2.95% 2.80% yesterday 96.45% 97.2% 2.95% 2.90% today 96.45% 97.3% 2.95% 2.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 75.05%, Kalshi 74.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 75% · Gina Hinojosa 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$82.9K78.65%Kalshi304K contracts · 74%/75%77.00%venue gap1.6pp7-day move-3.6ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$108K22%Kalshi908K contracts · 25%/26%25%venue gap3.0pp7-day move+3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 78.65% 77.0% 22.0% 25.0% 6 days ago 80.00% 78.0% 22.5% 22.0% 5 days ago 78.05% 79.0% 21.0% 21.0% 4 days ago 78.05% 78.0% 20.5% 24.0% 3 days ago 77.50% 77.0% 21.5% 23.0% 2 days ago 74.65% 72.0% 22.5% 29.0% yesterday 75.05% 75.0% 25.5% 26.0% today 75.05% 74.5% 25.5% 25.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 85.0%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 84% · Tom Tiffany 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$330K83.5%Kalshi476K contracts · 83%/84%82.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.5ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$285K15.5%Kalshi741K contracts · 16%/17%20.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 82.0% 15.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 16.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 84.0% 15.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 87.0% 82.0% 13.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 85.0% 84.0% 15.5% 17.0% yesterday 85.0% 84.0% 15.5% 16.0% today 85.0% 83.5% 15.5% 16.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news3 stories
A unanimous three-judge appeals panel ruled the policy unlawful on Friday, Sept. 18; the government has 90 days to appeal and is expected to.
The deals. A 24-newsroom investigation coordinated by Forbidden Stories, drawing on internal records and more than 100 interviews, found the Trump administration has signed 35 agreements with foreign governments to take in deported migrants and asylum seekers who are not their citizens. At least $410 million has been pledged to secure those deals, per internal records reviewed by the Washington Post. ([TS]That's the Post's end-of-June figure for 31 countries; the Guardian counts 35 deals now, so it's a floor.) Almost a third of the receiving countries are in Africa.
Who runs it. The effort is led by White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and run out of a newly created Office of Remigration inside the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration.
The people moved. Of the more than 25,000 people removed since 2025, about 20,000 were bussed to Mexico, per a Refugees International count. Lawyers say the deals work around the legal bar on sending people back to countries where they face persecution — though receiving countries frequently deport them onward anyway.
"They never told me they were going to deport me [to] this country. I don't know anything about Africa."Nika, a deportee, to the Guardian
Where it stands. A federal appeals court ruled Friday, Sept. 18 that the removals violated due process. The administration has 90 days to appeal and is expected to.
What the $7.5 million payments bought in three countries
- Rwanda: $7.5 million, with seven people received as of January 2026
- Palau: $7.5 million, with no one received as of January 2026
- Equatorial Guinea: $7.5 million, more than the previous eight years of U.S. aid to the country combined
The Sept. 14 memo, leaked rather than published, adopts the purpose test the Supreme Court rejected 6-3 in 1995.
The directive. Fish and Wildlife Service Director Brian Nesvik sent staff a directive dated Sept. 14 telling them that killing an endangered animal is not an illegal "take" under the Endangered Species Act unless the act was "intentionally directed at a particular animal or animals." Field staff are told to require four things before finding a violation: an affirmative act, intentionally directed at an animal, with a direct and immediate effect, on a particular animal rather than a population.
The examples. The memo's own examples: a ship whose course "was not set against the whale," and a tree that is "not felled for the purpose of killing or capturing" the bats roosting in it. So a timber crew that knows a listed bat colony lives in a stand and cuts it for lumber is not breaking the law. ([TS]The 1995 Sweet Home majority said Section 9 makes a knowing act enough — no purpose needed.) The directive reaches individuals and industry alike — logging, development and other projects.
How it surfaced. The memo was never printed in the Federal Register. It was leaked, first reported by The New York Times and published by the Center for Biological Diversity. The Interior Department declined an interview.
"Unless you're wearing a T-shirt that says, 'I'm here to draw the blood of endangered species,' you're basically off the hook."Brett Hartl, Center for Biological Diversity
The critics. Chris Servheen, who spent 35 years as the agency's grizzly bear recovery coordinator, said the statute becomes "essentially a meaningless law."
Still open. No agency has said how many pending permits, consultations or open investigations the directive changes, and no court has ruled on the memo itself.
What the Sept. 14 memo does not shut off
- Incidental take permits and take statements already issued by Fish and Wildlife and NOAA Fisheries stay valid, and both agencies still issue them
- Section 7 consultation, in which agencies must check projects with wildlife officials, and Section 4 critical-habitat designation are untouched
- Worth knowingReading about the memo and assuming enforcement is now impossible is wrong; the private right of action survives, but it only reaches building without a permit, not conduct covered by an incidental take permit already issued.
Related reading
Twenty-one state attorneys general filed two suits against the Fish and Wildlife Service and NOAA Fisheries over the rescission of the "harm" definition. Earthjustice and the Swinomish and Squaxin Island Tribes are litigating the same rule in federal court in Seattle, where discovery is the likeliest place enforcement numbers surface.
The 12-year contract went to a 163-person Boston startup whose prior federal work was $2.7 million in Air Force prototypes.
The system. The Federal Aviation Administration switched on a system called SMART on Monday, Sept. 21, at Reagan National, Dulles and Baltimore/Washington International. It reads air traffic, airport capacity and weather together, then recommends changes — departure times, routes, timing at points along the way — to break up jams before planes leave the gate. It does not fly anything, and it does not space planes apart. Controllers still do that, and the FAA says the tool will not replace any of them.
The contract. It runs 12 years and was awarded in June 2026 to Air Space Intelligence of Boston. It is worth $875.95 million; the company's prior federal work was $2.7 million in Air Force prototypes. The agency wants the system running nationwide by 2028. Its computers sit at the Air Traffic Control System Command Center in Warrenton, Virginia. ([TS]The FAA's own fact sheet publishes no national date — just "fall 2026" for initial operations.)
Where it stands. The FAA published no delay-reduction target, no baseline year and no accuracy standard with the launch. The controllers' union says it was not part of the design, the testing or the rollout. ([TS]NATCA is also about 3,000 certified controllers short, per Administrator Bedford's Sept. 15 testimony.)
What the same company's airline version did in trials
- Flights where the software found a better route: 64%
- Recommendations dispatchers actually accepted: 32%
- Time saved per Alaska Airlines flight, Jan.–Sept. 2022: 2.7 minutes
