Tuesday · The daily brief

Sep 222026

8 leads38 briefs36 min

Executive summary8 stories

News news5

  1. Trump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this weekIran's Revolutionary Guard said Monday, Sept. 21 that a new U.S. attack would change the weapons and the geography of the war, now in its seventh month.
  2. CNN, MS NOW and Politico sue Trump over White House ban; TV pool suspends coverageThe suit names Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and two other advisers, and a hearing on the outlets' emergency request to block the ban is set for Wednesday, Sept. 23.
  3. Trump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data insteadCENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper brought strike options to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday, Sept. 19; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had called Trump twice in one day ten days earlier asking for the strikes.
  4. Man shot once in the back by an ICE officer in Austin is held at a detention center with the bullet still in him, his lawyer saysWilber Rafael Garcés Pérez, 28, was discharged from the hospital into ICE custody and driven about 130 miles to the Pearsall detention center, where DHS is investigating its own officer.
  5. A blown circuit and a severed backup cable at Philadelphia air traffic control halted flights at Newark, Philadelphia and Teterboro for about seven hours Monday, Sept. 21FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the backup line was found cut at a New Jersey construction site; ground stops later expanded to JFK and LaGuardia, and departure delays ran up to 150 minutes.

Not news news3

  1. U.S. struck 35 deals to deport migrants to countries not their own, sending more than 25,000 people since 2025A unanimous three-judge appeals panel ruled the policy unlawful on Friday, Sept. 18; the government has 90 days to appeal and is expected to.
  2. Fish and Wildlife director tells staff killing an endangered animal is not an illegal 'take' unless the killing was the purposeThe Sept. 14 memo, leaked rather than published, adopts the purpose test the Supreme Court rejected 6-3 in 1995.
  3. FAA turns on an $875.95 million AI flight-planning tool at three Washington airportsThe 12-year contract went to a 163-person Boston startup whose prior federal work was $2.7 million in Air Force prototypes.

News news5 stories

CBS NEWSUpdateIran war

Trump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Monday, Sept. 21 that a new U.S. attack would change the weapons and the geography of the war, now in its seventh month.

The three options. Trump said Monday, Sept. 21 that he is in a "deciding mode" on Iran, naming three options: wiping the country out, letting it rot economically, or making a deal. Asked whether he would meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (President, Iran) at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, he said he would "probably" be open to it. Iran confirmed Pezeshkian will attend.

Tehran's warning. Hours earlier, Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said a fresh American assault would prompt Iran to change both the weaponry and the geography of the war, which began Feb. 28 and is now near its seventh month.

The war's costs. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most traffic and Houthi forces have bombed an east-west oil pipeline, keeping fuel prices high. Oil fell Monday on the prospect of talks. ([TS]Brent was near $97 Monday; it hasn't closed above $100 since May, per market data.)

"My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave."Donald Trump, to Fox News

Still open. What Tehran would want in return for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane most Gulf oil must pass through, has not been made public.

How we got herethe story so far
  • Sept. 1 — U.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast; Trump said a bigger attack was "waiting in the wings."
  • Sept. 2-3 — About 100 Iranian targets hit; Iran fired at U.S. bases in four countries; Iranian officials counted at least 18 dead, including four at a wedding compound in Kuhestak.
  • Sept. 5-6 — U.S. destroyed or disabled three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier and destroyer; no Americans hurt.
  • Sept. 8-10 — Iran declared a restricted zone near Hormuz, doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest users, and fired 20 missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan; Jordan intercepted 18.
  • Sept. 14 — An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing one; Trump smirked and said "I don't want to say" when asked if the U.S. did it.
  • Sept. 20 — A supertanker shortage and the hit on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline squeezed fuel; U.S. gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon, per AAA.
What the blockade did to Iran's oil shipmentsCrude loadings inside the Gulf fell from 1.83 million barrels a day in March to 255,000 a day in August2 details
  • Crude loadings inside the Gulf fell from 1.83 million barrels a day in March to 255,000 a day in August
  • Iranian crude sitting on ships outside the blockade dropped from 90 million barrels in mid-July to 29 million in mid-September

Related reading

The IMF puts Iranian inflation near 69% this year and a 5.4% contraction, the worst since the 1980s; the minimum monthly wage is worth about $72.

Read more about: Gulf states are pressing Washington for a reset with Iran rather than more strikes

The UAE is calling for a "new mindset" and Qatar for a regional security framework; both are absorbing the freight and insurance costs of the closed strait.

POLITICOUpdate

CNN, MS NOW and Politico sue Trump over White House ban; TV pool suspends coverage

The suit names Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and two other advisers, and a hearing on the outlets' emergency request to block the ban is set for Wednesday, Sept. 23.

The suit. CNN, MS NOW and Politico sued the Trump administration on Monday, Sept. 21 in federal district court in Washington, asking a judge to declare the administration's ban on their White House reporters unconstitutional and to order their access restored. The suit names four defendants: Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and two other top advisers. The complaint alleges First Amendment retaliation and viewpoint discrimination plus a Fifth Amendment due-process violation. The outlets are represented by Theodore Boutrous Jr. of Gibson Dunn.

The badges. Secret Service officers took the reporters' badges at the gate on Saturday, Sept. 19, a day after Trump announced the ban on Truth Social. MS NOW's Akayla Gardner said the officer told her only that her badge was disabled and that the decision was "above him."

The pool. Hours later the White House television pool — the five networks, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News and NBC, that take turns supplying live footage to everyone else — suspended its coverage. Trump was inaudible at a Monday press conference carried only on White House-supplied video with no usable audio, and C-SPAN skipped a helipad event for lack of a feed. CNN had been scheduled to run Monday's pool camera but was left off the rotation the White House published Sunday, Sept. 20.

“The White House is not instituting an assault on the Free Press, something which I cherish. It is instituting an assault on the FAKE NEWS, something that has grown like Cancer.”Donald Trump, on Truth Social ([TS]Same judge, Timothy Kelly, drew this case — and he gave CNN a TRO in three days last time.)

What next. Judge Timothy Kelly, who ruled for CNN's Jim Acosta in 2018, hears the emergency motion Wednesday, Sept. 23.

How we got herethe story so far
  • Fri., Sept. 18 — Trump announced on Truth Social that CNN, MS NOW and Politico would lose White House access, naming no single story and citing "cumulative stories over the last two years."
  • Sat., Sept. 19 — Secret Service officers turned the three outlets' reporters away at the gate and confiscated their hard passes; all three said they would sue.
What the last three credential fights actually wonAcosta, 2018: pass restored 12 days after it was pulled, with no appeal3 details
  • Acosta, 2018: pass restored 12 days after it was pulled, with no appeal
  • AP, 2025: Judge Trevor McFadden's injunction came 46 days after filing; the D.C. Circuit stayed most of it on June 6, leaving it only for the East Room
  • Sherrill v. Knight, 1977: won reporters notice and written reasons, not a press pass

Red take

CNN, MS NOW and Politico are asking Judge Timothy Kelly to order the executive branch to admit specific journalists to the president's residence — a power no court should hold over any president, of either party. Concede the uncomfortable part: Trump cited 'cumulative stories over the last two years' and named no single one, and retaliation for coverage is genuinely unlawful. But Jim Acosta won in 2018 on process, not on a property right in a badge, and the fix there was notice and a hearing. Being left off the rotation the White House published Sunday costs these outlets proximity, not publication. Nothing they printed was stopped.

Blue take

There is no constitutional right to a particular chair in the briefing room, and a president may reshuffle the pool. But Secret Service officers confiscated badges at the gate on Saturday, Sept. 19, one day after a Truth Social post that named no single story — that is not scheduling, that is a penalty for coverage, and the Constitution bars the government from rationing access by viewpoint. The cost is not CNN's convenience. With the five-network pool suspended, Trump was inaudible Monday and C-SPAN lost a helipad event entirely. Judge Timothy Kelly restored Jim Acosta's pass in 2018; the outlets ask him Wednesday, Sept. 23 to do it again.

Related reading

The administration's release argues the First Amendment protects the right to publish but does not entitle an outlet to a hard pass, a briefing room seat or a pool slot. It lists prior Democratic-era restrictions, cites no court case, and says a 2023 credentialing change cut off more than 440 reporters.

Vance said the three outlets were not banned from reporting, only from special access — the administration's core answer to the viewpoint-discrimination claim. He cited a figure that 92% of their Trump coverage is negative.

Ongoing10 earlier updates13 days
AXIOSUpdateIran war

Trump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead

CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper brought strike options to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday, Sept. 19; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had called Trump twice in one day ten days earlier (Sept. 9) asking for the strikes.

The decision. Trump spent the weekend of Sept. 19-21 weighing U.S. airstrikes on the Houthis, the armed movement that controls northern Yemen, and then said no, two U.S. officials told Axios. He agreed to hand the Saudis intelligence and targeting data. No American aircraft will fly.

The strait. The Houthis now hold both shores of the Bab al-Mandab, the 28-kilometer strait at the southern end of the Red Sea that every ship bound for the Suez Canal must pass. They have also widened their missile and drone attacks into Saudi Arabia, including the capital, Riyadh.

The war's civilian toll, per the UN:

  • Displaced inside Yemen: more than 120,000
  • Arrivals in Djibouti by boat: more than 3,000
  • UN relief appeal for Yemen: about 20% funded, vs. 28.5% for last year's appeal

Where it stands. The Houthis told U.S. diplomats they will not close the strait or fire on American ships. The State Department told Americans across the Middle East on Saturday, Sept. 19, to raise their guard after the Riyadh attack. ([TS]They've held to that since the May 2025 truce, per Yemeni sources — the Saudi half of the pledge doesn't exist.)

[PREVIOUSLY]

What the 2025 U.S. bombing campaign bought, and did notDuration: March 15 to May 6, 20253 details
  • Duration: March 15 to May 6, 2025
  • Strikes flown: about 1,100
  • Munitions cost: at least $1 billion
What the 2025 U.S. bombing campaign bought, and did notDuration: March 15 to May 6, 20254 details
  • Duration: March 15 to May 6, 2025
  • Strikes flown: about 1,100
  • Planned length before a truce cut it short: 8 to 10 months
  • MQ-9 Reaper drones the Houthis shot down: about six

Related reading

Under the War Powers Resolution, a president must tell Congress within 48 hours of sending U.S. forces into combat. That notice is the only listed contract that would have to move if American aircraft joined the fight; nothing on the board prices a U.S. strike directly.

Last year's Yemen appeal closed at 28.5% funded. Some 15,000 emergency kits are staged but blocked by road closures, and Mokha port is shut.

THE GUARDIANUpdateImmigration enforcement

Man shot once in the back by an ICE officer in Austin is held at a detention center with the bullet still in him, his lawyer says

Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez, 28, was discharged from the hospital into ICE custody and driven about 130 miles to the Pearsall detention center, where DHS is investigating its own officer.

The shooting. Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez, a 28-year-old Venezuelan man who has lived in the U.S. for two years, was shot once in the back during an ICE traffic stop in north Austin shortly before 1 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 20, while making a DoorDash delivery. Emergency services were called at 12:56 p.m. Video posted online appears to show an ICE officer get out of his car and fire at Garcés Pérez's car three times. Officials described the wound as being to the torso; his lawyer says the round went in between his shoulder blades.

Where he is. He was released from the hospital into ICE custody and taken to the South Texas ICE Processing Center in Pearsall, roughly 130 miles southwest of Austin. DHS says he was in the country illegally under a final order of removal. His attorney's spokesperson says he entered through a parole program, is seeking asylum and has no criminal record. ([TS]DHS hasn't answered the Guardian on the stop itself, his condition, or where he's held.)

"Bullet still lodged in his back. No pain meds."attorney Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch, who says he is being questioned at Pearsall

Where it stands. Homeland Security Investigations, a branch of ICE's own department, is leading the inquiry with FBI help; Austin police were not part of the operation. Texas officers fired pepper balls at people who gathered at the scene and detained several of them. Rep. Greg Casar (Rep-D Texas) has asked DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and acting ICE director David Venturella for a briefing and all body and dash camera footage by Sept. 28.

How we got herethe story so far
  • Sept. 2 — ICE said every field agent would have a body camera by Sept. 30; about 3,000 of 13,000 agents had one as of February.
  • Sept. 7 — ICE logged more than 50,000 arrests for a second straight month, a first, with a rising share of people who have no criminal record.
  • Sept. 11 — Latino and voting-rights groups and the city of Denver filed two suits to bar ICE from polling places.
  • Sept. 18 — The White House pulled Lance Schroyer's nomination to run ICE after Senate Republicans blocked him, leaving the agency under an acting director.
  • Sept. 20 — An ICE officer shot and wounded a man during a traffic stop in north Austin; state police fired pepper balls at protesters who gathered at the scene and detained several.
BackgroundWhat ICE's own force, care and footage rules allow3 facts
  • Directive 19009.3 bars deadly force used only to stop someone running away, and requires a verbal warning when feasible.
  • Detention standard 4.3 guarantees "medically necessary and appropriate" care, but names pain relief only for emergency dental work, and off-site surgery needs a payment authorization filed with ICE Health Service Corps first.
  • The ICE director can delay footage release indefinitely under "specific and compelling circumstances," a phrase the policy never defines.

Related reading

Castro turned himself in Sept. 16 after Gov. Greg Abbott (Gov-R Texas) declined Hennepin County's warrant. He faces four counts of second-degree assault and one of falsely reporting a crime in the non-fatal shooting of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis. A separate federal case charges him with six counts of lying to the FBI.

Read more about: DHS inspector general is examining whether ICE policies contributed to deaths in detention%20Custody,%20FY%202022%20through%20the%20Second%20Quarter%20of%20FY%202026.pdf)

The June 24, 2026 memo says in-custody deaths have risen every year since fiscal 2022. ICE reported 33 in 2025 against 11 in 2024, and had counted 24 by Sept. 2 this year. Fieldwork began in July and covers October 2021 through March 2026.

ABC NEWS

A blown circuit and a severed backup cable at Philadelphia air traffic control halted flights at Newark, Philadelphia and Teterboro for about seven hours Monday, Sept. 21

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the backup line was found cut at a New Jersey construction site; ground stops later expanded to JFK and LaGuardia, and departure delays ran up to 150 minutes.

The circuit. A circuit that carries radar and communication data for the Philadelphia air traffic control facility blew Monday morning, Sept. 21. When the backup cut in, officials found the backup line severed at a New Jersey construction site.

The ground stop. With controllers short of working frequencies, the FAA's only lever was to stop traffic: a ground stop at Newark Liberty, Philadelphia International and Teterboro around 10 a.m., then an expansion to JFK and LaGuardia while Northeast airspace closed for at least 30 minutes to swap the circuit. The swap did not take, leaving Newark and Philadelphia halted into the afternoon with no estimated resumption time. Departure delays ran up to 150 minutes.

The fiber. Verizon, which owned the fiber, said construction contractors working beside an Amtrak rail line dug up and cut its cable and that "Verizon bears no responsibility for this incident."

The reopening. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the lines were repaired and Northeast flights were resuming shortly after 5 p.m., about seven hours after the first ground stop. ([TS]That's a liability position, not a finding — no agency has said who pays for 900-plus canceled flights.)

"FAA technology outage is affecting all airlines in the Northeast... Flights that had been destined for Newark have either been held at their departure airport or diverted to alternative airports."United Airlines

Still open. No one has said who cut the cable — Duffy blamed an Amtrak crew, Amtrak pointed to a New Jersey Transit contractor, NJ Transit said its crew severed a cable at 9:45 a.m. but suggested a Verizon crew may be at fault. No investigative agency has been named.

What GAO told the FAA to fix, and DOT agreed toThe Department of Transportation agreed to all nine recommendations in the GAO report released the same day, Monday, Sept. 213 details
  • The Department of Transportation agreed to all nine recommendations in the GAO report released the same day, Monday, Sept. 21
  • GAO found the FAA had completed no formal risk assessment for seven of the eight aviation communication systems it reviewed
  • FAA work with industry partners fully met 2 of 8 leading practices for collaboration and partially met the other 6

Related reading

That was over half of Newark's scheduled departures, and United canceled all its remaining domestic mainline and United Express flights there Monday afternoon.

Read more about: Ron Wyden (Sen-D Oregon) says the FAA's failure to require secure aircraft communications threatens national security

Wyden, who sits on the intelligence committee, wants new encryption standards "as soon as possible"; the FAA's parent department has set no date.

Quick bites16

Courts3 bites
  1. DOJ's lead prosecutor on the 'grand conspiracy' probe of Trump's foes quit after 5 months and 0 charges

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Justice Department officials have sent a flurry of subpoenas to former law enforcement and intelligence officials since diGenova's exit, with grand jury testimony expected in coming weeks in Fort Pierce, Florida, before a Trump-appointed judge.

    What the probe is trying to buildThe probe seeks to fold separate FBI investigations of Trump — Russian election interference and the classified documents at…2 details
    • The probe seeks to fold separate FBI investigations of Trump — Russian election interference and the classified documents at Mar-a-Lago — into one conspiracy case.
    • Retired federal prosecutor Randall Eliason: "there's no basis for an allegation that any one of them was actually a criminal act against Trump."
  2. Federal grand jury subpoenas LA County for voter records on dozens of suspected noncitizens

    LOS ANGELES TIMES

    A federal grand jury has ordered Los Angeles County to hand over voter registration records on dozens of people. The subpoenas do not say who is under investigation.

  3. Vermont jury convicts Jason Eaton of attempted murder in 2023 shooting of three Palestinian students

    NBC NEWS

    Jurors rejected Eaton's insanity defense, and the 51-year-old now faces up to life in prison. He had claimed the CIA and Mossad sent him orders over FM radio. No hate crime charges were ever filed, despite calls for a hate crime investigation.

    • The three students, all 20 at the time, were shot in Burlington in November 2023; Hisham Awartani was paralyzed from the waist down.
    • Jurors deliberated several hours after a weeklong trial with testimony from the three wounded men and psychiatric experts for both sides.
    • Eaton is jailed pending sentencing, which has not been scheduled.
Appropriators balk at White House plans2 bites
  1. Collins and Murray reject draft order giving political appointees control of NIH grants

    THE HILLUpdate

    The White House is drafting an executive order to move NIH grant approval to a new board. Trump told budget director Russ Vought to build it. On Sept. 20 he asked for a plan that would give an outside panel veto power over NIH research grants.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) objects. Putting politics into grantmaking by order or guidance is "contrary to congressional intent," she says. Ranking member Patty Murray (Sen-D Washington) warns that one appointee could kill a cancer study. There would be no scientific reason for it.

    Also in the draftOfficials are also weighing a separate commission to review NIH awards.2 details
    • Officials are also weighing a separate commission to review NIH awards.
    • An analysis cited by PBS says the administration has cut or frozen grants in every state.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 21.

    1. Trump requests plan giving outside panel veto power over NIH research grants
    2. UpdateCollins and Murray reject draft order giving political appointees control of NIH grants — this issue
  2. GOP appropriator Mike Simpson says he won't fund Trump's 250-foot arch from the Pentagon budget

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

    Mike Simpson (Rep-R Idaho), a senior House appropriator, said he will not put defense money toward Trump's arch. The military is already short on cash, he said, and the White House should ask Congress for its own funding. Trump had recast the arch as a security structure holding drones, snipers and ammunition.

    On Sep. 20, Trump said on Truth Social that his planned 250-foot arch near the Lincoln Memorial would store and deploy drones and snipers and hold ammunition "for National Security purposes."

    • Trump's fiscal 2027 budget seeks roughly $1.5 trillion for defense, including about $1.15 trillion in discretionary funding; full-year FY2027 defense funding is not enacted.
    • The House Appropriations Committee voted along party lines in June to reject an amendment blocking the arch.
    • The arch would stand 250 feet between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery, less than a mile from the Pentagon.
    Currently showing U.S. national defense expenditures
    U.S. national defense expenditures
    Trump first term Biden U.S. national defense expenditures Real (inflation-adjusted) 2024 dollars; nominal values converted with CPI Story: $1.5 trillion nominal = $1419B real $750B $800B $850B $900B $773B $874B 2015 2020 2025 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED (A997RC1A027NBEA), inflation-adjusted with CPIAUCNS to 202
    U.S. national defense expenditures
Washington and AI risk2 bites
  1. US proposes an AI incident hotline with China; next talks set for Shenzhen in November

    NBC NEWS

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. proposed a way for the two countries to warn each other about AI incidents that reach the national-security level. He made the pitch to Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York, days before Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. USTR Jamieson Greer said the AI talks will not change U.S. export controls on advanced chips. China's Xinhua readout left the proposal out.

    • Bessent named the shared dangers as uncontrollable agents and non-state cyber and bioweapons actors
    • Both sides also agreed to operationalize the "Board of Trade" Trump and Xi discussed in Beijing in May
    • Greer said lower tariffs could cover consumer and farm goods, energy products and medical devices
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 21.

    1. UpdateU.S. and China open New York talks on trade, AI and critical minerals
    2. US proposes an AI incident hotline with China; next talks set for Shenzhen in November — this issue
  2. Three Senate Republicans press leaders to vote on AI safety bills as Trump calls AI fears a 'hoax'

    POLITICO

    Josh Hawley (Sen-R Missouri) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) asked Senate leaders for a floor vote on their AI risk-evaluation bill. Hawley also called a Judiciary subcommittee hearing on AI-powered Flock cameras. He is looking into how one OpenAI model acted in tests.

The immigration crackdown2 bites
  1. ICE detainees with final removal orders no longer appear in its public detainee locator

    @REICHLINMELNICKImmigration enforcement

    ICE last week stopped listing detainees with final removal orders in the Online Detainee Locator System, says immigration analyst Aaron Reichlin-Melnick. Lawyers, families and consulates use that public database to find where someone is held. ICE has not explained the change.

  2. Federal agents detained a US citizen in Evanston, Illinois by mistake; he was hospitalized with head, neck and teeth injuries

    THE GUARDIAN

    Evanston officers answering a report of an argument just before 10 a.m. Sunday found the man on the ground. A plainclothes agent said he had been detained for fingerprinting after refusing to show ID and resisting. Agents then found he was not their target and was a US citizen, and let him go.

    • Five federal agents were working the area in separate unmarked vehicles, per the agent at the scene.
    • Witnesses told police they believed the agents were ICE; the agent never named his agency and DHS did not respond to a request for comment.
    • Officers photographed and documented his injuries at the hospital.
Also tonight5 bites
  1. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdateInflation and the Fed

    Goolsbee said beating inflation will mean pushing employment below target. He called that a painful trade-off. It is "exactly the kind of painful trade-off between employment and inflation," he said, "that stagflationary shocks always impose on the central bank." The Fed raised its rate a quarter point last week. The new range is 3.75% to 4.00%. Goolsbee spoke in London. Oil price shocks from the Iran war and tariffs leave no painless path back to the Fed's 2% target, he said. Inflation ran at a 3.4% annual rate in August. Chair Kevin Warsh says otherwise. "I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets," he said last week, "to achieve our objective."

    Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues
    • Sep. 11 — August consumer prices rose 0.4% for the month and held at 3.4% annually, with gasoline driving the monthly jump; core inflation slowed to 2.4%.
    • Sep. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some nations unless the Fed lowered rates.
    • Sep. 14 — The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014%, its highest since October 2023, as Brent crude hit $108.50.
    • Sep. 16 — The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since July 2023, on a 12–0 vote.
    • Sep. 17 — Trump called for rates of "1%, or less" and blamed the Fed's board rather than Warsh, the chair he picked.
    • Sep. 21 — The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.95%, its highest in more than a year and a half.
    • St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said more rate hikes are likely needed to quell inflation.
    • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation is "still too high" even stripping out energy and food.
    • Goolsbee rejected cutting rates to help the U.S. finance its debt.
    Ongoing5
    Currently showing Annual CPI against the Fed's 2% target
    Annual CPI against the Fed's 2% target
    U.S. annual average CPI inflation versus the Federal Reserve's 2 percent targetDot plot on a single horizontal axis of annual percent change in the all-urban Consumer Price Index. The 2025 annual average CPI inflation rate is 2.63 percent, plotted as a dot, with a shaded connector running back to a labeled vertical reference line at the Federal Reserve's 2 percent longer-run goal, so the overshoot is read directly off the axis. Units are percent per year. Uncertainty note: only this annual-average reading is drawn from the grounded dataset; the monthly and core readings mentioned in the story are on different bases and are not plotted, so no trend is implied.Inflation still sits above the 2% targetAnnual average CPI-U inflation, 2025, compared with theFederal Reserve's stated longer-run goal of 2%.Fed 2% targetU.S. CPI, 20252.63%above target0123Annual percent change in consumer prices (CPI-U)Source: BLS. Monthly readings are a different basis, not shown.
    Annual CPI against the Fed's 2% target
  2. UN rapporteur finds reasonable grounds that 68 U.S. boat strikes killing 223 were crimes against humanity

    THE GUARDIAN

    Ben Saul called the strikes serial extrajudicial killings and rejected Trump's self-defense claim to Congress, finding no armed attack on the U.S. that would trigger that right; the latest strike, Saturday in the Caribbean, killed four.

    • 68 strikes, 223 dead since September 2025 per Saul's report; a Washington Office on Latin America tally counts 234 killed in 66 attacks.
    • The operation, "Southern Spear," began in early September 2025; officials have not offered definitive evidence the targeted boats were trafficking.
    • Southern Command said Saturday's target had "confirmed intelligence" of narco-trafficking and called the four dead "narco-terrorists."
  3. US approved visas for Iran's delegation to the UN but denied them to Abbas, who will speak by video

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERIran war

    Mahmoud Abbas will not travel to New York for the high-level week and will speak to the assembly by video link instead.

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Sep 18.

    1. US grants visas for Iran's president Pezeshkian and foreign minister Araghchi while barring the Palestinian delegation for a second year
    2. US approved visas for Iran's delegation to the UN but denied them to Abbas, who will speak by video — this issue
  4. Paramount settles with 12 states, clearing its $110 billion Warner Bros. Discovery takeover

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    Paramount Skydance's takeover is cleared after the company settled with the 12 state attorneys general who sued to block it. Shares of both companies rose more than 10%. Paramount agreed to release 30 films a year for two years and 32 a year for the next three, and to pay $30 million for each film it misses. It will also spend $300 million a year on U.S. production for five years, hold its Los Angeles studio lots for five years, and set up independent editorial boards over CBS News and CNN.

    The 12 states sued July 13 to block the deal. An antitrust trial was set for early March before Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín. As of Sept. 20, several attorneys general still had not agreed to settle.

    What else is in the dealIf Paramount misses the release requirements, it must sell the Miramax film studio.3 details
    • If Paramount misses the release requirements, it must sell the Miramax film studio.
    • Five of the 12 states sit on the committee that monitors and enforces compliance.
    • Missing a Sept. 30 close would have cost Paramount 25 cents a share per quarter, over $600 million every three months.
  5. Pennsylvania governor bars state permit review of data centers until local zoning and new power are secured

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER

    Josh Shapiro (Gov-D Pennsylvania) signed the order. It holds state permit review until a project clears local zoning and lines up new power. In August, Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R-MI) called for a one-year freeze on new data centers. Grid operator PJM covers 13 states. Starting in mid-2027, it plans to cut off new large loads that have not lined up their own power for tight days.

    Where else it's bitingVineland, New Jersey issued stop-work orders in August on a Microsoft-linked campus.2 details
    • Vineland, New Jersey issued stop-work orders in August on a Microsoft-linked campus. Crews had installed equipment without local permits, and the generators had no state air permit.
    • New Mexico's land commissioner rejected the pipeline for Oracle and OpenAI's Project Jupiter twice this year, pushing it to 2027.
Elections2 bites
  1. Senate GOP campaign arm outspent Democrats 46-to-1 on ads in August

    BLOOMBERG

    The NRSC spent 46 times what Democrats did on August ads, using coordinated money the Supreme Court's summer ruling freed from limits. Republicans are now set to outspend Democrats on air in 8 of 9 close Senate races.

    Where the money is goingA confidential Senate Leadership Fund memo says it needs $7 million more to boost Rep. Ashley Hinson (Rep-R Iowa)2 details
    • A confidential Senate Leadership Fund memo says it needs $7 million more to boost Rep. Ashley Hinson (Rep-R Iowa)
    • Senate Majority PAC, which took $9 million from Soros-funded Democracy PAC, has pledged $30 million to elect Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)
  2. Senators say Kansas and Nebraska Senate seats are now in play; Democrats need 4 to flip the chamber

    THE HILL

    An unnamed Democratic challenger is running even with Kansas Republican Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas), and Democrats need a net gain of four seats on Nov. 3 without losing any of their own. The Hill ties the tighter map to rising energy prices.

    • Bloomberg: the top Senate Republican PAC told donors Iowa, long a GOP hold, is at risk.
    • Bloomberg: Jon Ossoff (Sen-D Georgia) leads in polling and fundraising in Georgia.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 42 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 66%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.75–92.50%
93%92%chance Democrats take it · 0.8pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 92%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 64.5–65.5%
66%65%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 66% and Kalshi 65%.

3 closest races

  • zNevada governorJoe Lombardo 52.0%Aaron Ford 48.5%▲3.3

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uIowa SenateAshley Hinson 54.5%Josh Turek 45.5%▲5.9

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 54.5%Rick Jackson 45.5%▲0.3

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • tAlaska SenateMary Peltola 73.0%▲1.8Dan Sullivan 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • abGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 94.5%▲1.7Collins 5.6%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.4%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.4%, Kalshi 5.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rMaine SenateTroy Jackson 73.3%▲4.3Susan Collins 27.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.0%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 73.3%▲9.0Mike Rogers 26.8%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about nine points.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 73.0%, Kalshi 73.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.0%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 67.5%Dan Osborn 33.5%▲1.5

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.0%▲5.514.3%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 16.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 93.97%▲1.3Whatley 6.60%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 6.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wOhio SenateSherrod Brown 60.5%▲6.0Jon Husted 39.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sTexas SenateJames Talarico 60.0%▲1.7Ken Paxton 41.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • afAlaska governorWilson 18.75%80.5%Begich 0.73%▲6.0

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 18.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.10%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • ahArizona governorKatie Hobbs 89.0%▲2.111.0%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alFlorida governorByron Donalds 73.0%27.0%▲5.8Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeIowa governorRob Sand 82.8%▲4.9Lahn 17.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 83.0%, Kalshi 82.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.6%▲1.27.2%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.7%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.67%▲1.9Blakeman 5.38%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 93.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 6.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qOhio governorAmy Acton 61.5%▲5.4Vivek Ramaswamy 39.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.88%▲0.2Garrity 2.90%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.45%, Kalshi 97.30%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.95%, Kalshi 2.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiTexas governorGreg Abbott 74.78%25.50%▲2.2Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 75.05%, Kalshi 74.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 84.3%▲1.716.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 85.0%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 23, 11:50 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news3 stories

THE GUARDIANImmigration enforcement

U.S. struck 35 deals to deport migrants to countries not their own, sending more than 25,000 people since 2025

A unanimous three-judge appeals panel ruled the policy unlawful on Friday, Sept. 18; the government has 90 days to appeal and is expected to.

The deals. A 24-newsroom investigation coordinated by Forbidden Stories, drawing on internal records and more than 100 interviews, found the Trump administration has signed 35 agreements with foreign governments to take in deported migrants and asylum seekers who are not their citizens. At least $410 million has been pledged to secure those deals, per internal records reviewed by the Washington Post. ([TS]That's the Post's end-of-June figure for 31 countries; the Guardian counts 35 deals now, so it's a floor.) Almost a third of the receiving countries are in Africa.

Who runs it. The effort is led by White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and run out of a newly created Office of Remigration inside the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration.

The people moved. Of the more than 25,000 people removed since 2025, about 20,000 were bussed to Mexico, per a Refugees International count. Lawyers say the deals work around the legal bar on sending people back to countries where they face persecution — though receiving countries frequently deport them onward anyway.

"They never told me they were going to deport me [to] this country. I don't know anything about Africa."Nika, a deportee, to the Guardian

Where it stands. A federal appeals court ruled Friday, Sept. 18 that the removals violated due process. The administration has 90 days to appeal and is expected to.

What the $7.5 million payments bought in three countriesRwanda: $7.5 million, with seven people received as of January 20263 details
  • Rwanda: $7.5 million, with seven people received as of January 2026
  • Palau: $7.5 million, with no one received as of January 2026
  • Equatorial Guinea: $7.5 million, more than the previous eight years of U.S. aid to the country combined
STATELINECourts and the administration

Fish and Wildlife director tells staff killing an endangered animal is not an illegal 'take' unless the killing was the purpose

The Sept. 14 memo, leaked rather than published, adopts the purpose test the Supreme Court rejected 6-3 in 1995.

The directive. Fish and Wildlife Service Director Brian Nesvik sent staff a directive dated Sept. 14 telling them that killing an endangered animal is not an illegal "take" under the Endangered Species Act unless the act was "intentionally directed at a particular animal or animals." Field staff are told to require four things before finding a violation: an affirmative act, intentionally directed at an animal, with a direct and immediate effect, on a particular animal rather than a population.

The examples. The memo's own examples: a ship whose course "was not set against the whale," and a tree that is "not felled for the purpose of killing or capturing" the bats roosting in it. So a timber crew that knows a listed bat colony lives in a stand and cuts it for lumber is not breaking the law. ([TS]The 1995 Sweet Home majority said Section 9 makes a knowing act enough — no purpose needed.) The directive reaches individuals and industry alike — logging, development and other projects.

How it surfaced. The memo was never printed in the Federal Register. It was leaked, first reported by The New York Times and published by the Center for Biological Diversity. The Interior Department declined an interview.

"Unless you're wearing a T-shirt that says, 'I'm here to draw the blood of endangered species,' you're basically off the hook."Brett Hartl, Center for Biological Diversity

The critics. Chris Servheen, who spent 35 years as the agency's grizzly bear recovery coordinator, said the statute becomes "essentially a meaningless law."

Still open. No agency has said how many pending permits, consultations or open investigations the directive changes, and no court has ruled on the memo itself.

What the Sept. 14 memo does not shut offIncidental take permits and take statements already issued by Fish and Wildlife and NOAA Fisheries stay valid, and both agencies…3 details
  • Incidental take permits and take statements already issued by Fish and Wildlife and NOAA Fisheries stay valid, and both agencies still issue them
  • Section 7 consultation, in which agencies must check projects with wildlife officials, and Section 4 critical-habitat designation are untouched

Related reading

Twenty-one state attorneys general filed two suits against the Fish and Wildlife Service and NOAA Fisheries over the rescission of the "harm" definition. Earthjustice and the Swinomish and Squaxin Island Tribes are litigating the same rule in federal court in Seattle, where discovery is the likeliest place enforcement numbers surface.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER

FAA turns on an $875.95 million AI flight-planning tool at three Washington airports

The 12-year contract went to a 163-person Boston startup whose prior federal work was $2.7 million in Air Force prototypes.

The system. The Federal Aviation Administration switched on a system called SMART on Monday, Sept. 21, at Reagan National, Dulles and Baltimore/Washington International. It reads air traffic, airport capacity and weather together, then recommends changes — departure times, routes, timing at points along the way — to break up jams before planes leave the gate. It does not fly anything, and it does not space planes apart. Controllers still do that, and the FAA says the tool will not replace any of them.

The contract. It runs 12 years and was awarded in June 2026 to Air Space Intelligence of Boston. It is worth $875.95 million; the company's prior federal work was $2.7 million in Air Force prototypes. The agency wants the system running nationwide by 2028. Its computers sit at the Air Traffic Control System Command Center in Warrenton, Virginia. ([TS]The FAA's own fact sheet publishes no national date — just "fall 2026" for initial operations.)

Where it stands. The FAA published no delay-reduction target, no baseline year and no accuracy standard with the launch. The controllers' union says it was not part of the design, the testing or the rollout. ([TS]NATCA is also about 3,000 certified controllers short, per Administrator Bedford's Sept. 15 testimony.)

What the same company's airline version did in trialsFlights where the software found a better route: 64%3 details
  • Flights where the software found a better route: 64%
  • Recommendations dispatchers actually accepted: 32%
  • Time saved per Alaska Airlines flight, Jan.–Sept. 2022: 2.7 minutes
8 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
  • 53Pennsylvania measles outbreak nears 800 casesPennsylvania's measles outbreak is approaching 800 cases as it continues to grow.
  • 54Newsom signs a package of California data center oversight bills and criticizes federal inactionGov.
  • 55Russia's grey-zone attacks on Europe grow more brazen as NATO allies prepare for wider conflictRussia's grey-zone attacks on Europe are growing more brazen as NATO allies prepare for the possibility of wider conflict.
  • 56Germany's far-right AfD gains in state elections; Merz vows to stay after record CDU lossGermany's far-right AfD gained in state elections and is setting its sights on replacing Merz's party, with Merz vowing to stay on after a record CDU loss.
  • 57Trump's Taiwan retreat and warnings the US is blundering toward war with ChinaTrump's retreat on Taiwan tests the influence of his chief China hawks, amid warnings that the United States is blundering toward war with China.
  • 58Proposed F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia complicated by Israel and China concerns; expectations of Abraham Accords enticementsA proposed F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia is complicated by Israeli and Chinese angles, with expectations that Abraham Accords commitments would be used as enticements.
  • 59Retiring Rep. Jared Golden crosses party lines to endorse Republican Mike Lawler in NY-17Retiring Rep.
  • 63GOP candidates weigh distancing themselves from Trump, including a Pennsylvania swing-seat RepublicanRepublican candidates are weighing how far to distance themselves from Trump, including a Pennsylvania swing-seat Republican who may not be saved by doing so.

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