NBC's new polling average puts Democrats up 52%-43% on the generic ballot; Trump at 26% with independents

2026 midterms

Political Guyentist · September 27, 20261 min read

The 9-point lead is the widest of Trump's second term, and part of it comes from NBC switching its average from registered voters to likely voters; about 5% are undecided, unsure or third-party.

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House: net gain of 3 seats, made harder by Republican redistricting
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What we’re less sure of2 of 7 claims

Medium
The 9-point Democratic lead is the widest of Trump's second term.
The story states this in its own voice. NBC calls it Democrats' 'biggest lead yet' and Yahoo/RCP calls it the 'largest lead this cycle', but neither source says 'second term', so the framing is partly inferred.
Medium
Part of the lead comes from NBC switching its average from registered voters to likely voters.
NBC's methodology pieces confirm the move to a likely-voter baseline after Labor Day, and the likely-voter polls in the source list lean more Democratic. The story does not attribute the causal link or its size to anyone, so how much it contributes is partly inferred.