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TIMEUpdate

Transportation Department finalizes fuel economy rule: 34.9 mpg fleet average by 2031, down from Biden's 50.4

Political Guyentist · September 29, 20262 min read

TIME

Department officials project the new-car mix flipping from 70% light trucks to 70% passenger cars.

The rule. The Transportation Department on Monday, Sept. 28 released its final replacement for Biden's 2024 fuel economy standards (CAFE, the average mileage each automaker's whole lineup must hit). It also drops the incentives that rewarded electric vehicles. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said it "ended the illegal mandate that forced automakers to produce more expensive electric vehicles that American families didn't want."

The claim. The administration says new cars will cost $1,300 less on average and consumers will save $138 billion over five years. ([TS]December's proposal said $930 a car; the jump to $1,300 comes with no published explanation, per the Guardian)

The pushback. Gas averaged $4.47 a gallon Monday, per AAA, up from $2.98 before the war with Iran. "Trump is tanking sensible mile per gallon standards at the worst possible time for consumers," said Dan Becker of the Center for Biological Diversity.

On Saturday, Sept. 26, Trump said he had signed off on new fuel economy standards to replace Biden's 2024 rule, which he calls an "EV mandate."

What the rule scraps and rewrites before 2031A credit-trading program set to start in 2028, which would have let EV makers sell credits to automakers that fell short, is…3 details
  • A credit-trading program set to start in 2028, which would have let EV makers sell credits to automakers that fell short, is scrapped
  • The rule rewrites standards back to model year 2022 and covers ten model years; the law caps a standard at five, the likeliest hook for a court challenge (DLA Piper)
  • Vehicles get reclassified between light trucks and passenger cars starting in 2030, a year before the endpoint
Chart · pipeline render▲ collapsed plot

2031 fuel economy targets vs. today's fleet (miles per gallon)

Mileage targets vs. today's fleetDot plot on one miles-per-gallon scale. The model year 2024 fleet averaged 30.1 mpg (actual, per Roll Call). The new rule's 2031 fleet target is 34.9 mpg. Biden's 2024 rule set a 2031 target of 50.4 mpg. Brackets start at 30.1 and show the gain each rule requires. The new target sits just above today's fleet, and Biden's target sat far beyond it. The axis starts near 28 mpg with an axis break. Note: Biden's rule required 2% yearly gains for model years 2027-2031, while the December proposal required 0.25%-0.5% a year. The comparison is approximate because the story does not say whether the 30.1 figure uses the same compliance basis as the 2031 standards.Mileage targets vs. today's fleet2031 fleet targets, measured from MY2024Gain Biden rule requiredGain new rule requires30354045505530.134.950.4MY2024New ruleBiden ruleMiles per gallon, fleet averageRamp: Biden 2%/yr, MY2027-2031;Dec. proposal 0.25%-0.5%/yrApprox.: MY2024 basis may differ

What we’re less sure of6 of 8 claims