Political Guyentist

Thursday · The daily brief

Oct 12026

7 leads38 briefs28 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary7 stories

News news6

  1. Pentagon says the last US troops have left Iraq, formally ending the 12-year anti-ISIS missionThe Pentagon keeps only training and intelligence support and says "ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias" are now Baghdad's job.
  2. August PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%Inflation-adjusted spending rose 0.6%, the biggest monthly gain since March 2025, while real income was flat and the saving rate fell to 4.1%.
  3. Hegseth confirms a 20% cut in general and admiral posts, orders a four-star drone command and calls munitions reporting “treason”The cut removes positions, not people: some jobs drop to colonel or Navy captain rank, and the services must finish by Jan. 1, 2027.
  4. Fed inspector general finds no crime or misconduct by Powell in headquarters renovation; Trump says he should resign from the board or be suedTrump asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to "study" the report; the Justice Department closed its own criminal probe of Powell in April 2026.
  5. Federal Medicaid funding ends Oct. 1 for refugees, asylees and other legal immigrants without green cards; nine states and DC count 281,000 losing coverageThe Congressional Budget Office projected the change would leave 100,000 more immigrants uninsured by 2034.
  6. Four Senate committee leaders release a 400-page bipartisan bill to speed energy permits, with no vote until after the Nov. 3 midtermsMike Lee (Sen-R Utah) expects it to pass in the post-election session, but it needs 60 Senate votes, so at least seven Democrats must vote yes.

Not news news1

  1. Anti-hunger group counts 5.2 million people off SNAP since the 2025 law, as states start paying 75% of its admin costs Oct. 1SNAP enrollment is at its lowest since 2019, and the work requirement now reaches recipients up to age 64.

News news6 stories

Ongoing3 earlier updates31 days

This story has run 4 times over 31 days, starting Aug 31.

  1. Military leaders told Hegseth prolonged Iran operations would leave the U.S. exposed elsewhere
  2. Panetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion list
  3. U.S. forces leave their bases in Iraq on Wednesday, Sept. 30, ending two decades of military involvement
  4. UpdatePentagon says the last US troops have left Iraq, formally ending the 12-year anti-ISIS mission — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateIran war

Pentagon says the last US troops have left Iraq, formally ending the 12-year anti-ISIS mission

The Pentagon keeps only training and intelligence support and says "ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias" are now Baghdad's job.

US and coalition forces finished leaving Iraq on Wednesday, Sept. 30, the deadline the Biden administration agreed with Baghdad in 2024. The exit ends a presence of about 2,500 US troops. The Pentagon said Operation Inherent Resolve, the anti-ISIS mission launched in 2014, is formally over after 12 years. About 100 UK personnel left Erbil alongside the Americans. Iraq will hold four national "Sovereignty Days" holidays to mark the exit.

The claims. Trump called it "a victory for the United States, it's a victory for Iraq and a decisive victory over ISIS, which has been completely decimated" ([TS]the UN's July count: low hundreds of fighters in Iraq, up to 3,000 in Syria). The Pentagon made a narrower claim: responsibility for "ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias that undermine Iraqi sovereignty" now "rests with the Government of Iraq."

The reaction. Iran and its allies celebrated. Iraqi analysts and Kurds warned of an Islamic State comeback and of more Iranian influence as the US-Iran war spreads. Erbil resident Osman Kamusashi told PBS the departure "will impose a serious threat on the Kurdistan region."

What next. The Pentagon will keep giving Iraq training and intelligence support. No source has said how many Americans that leaves in the country.

Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
  • Aug. 31 — Military leaders warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth a long Iran war would leave US forces exposed elsewhere; the Pentagon called the leak a crime.
  • Sept. 14–16 — The Pentagon put defense makers on wartime footing; its watchdog priced the war at $33.4 billion through June 30, plus $3.7 billion in lost equipment.
  • Sept. 29 — US officials said an Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying eight Marines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sept. 14; the Pentagon never announced it.
  • Sept. 30 — US forces began their final exit from Iraqi bases, a move Reuters and the Washington Post judged shifts power toward Iran, its militias and ISIS.
2 earlier issues
BackgroundWhat leaving Iraq did not remove from the region3 facts
  • The counter-ISIS task force headquarters moved to Jordan, not home (Al Arabiya).
  • The Patriot missile-defense battery that covered Erbil also went to Jordan; no air-defense system was handed to Iraq (CRBC, 964media).
  • US troops across the Middle East still number above 50,000, about 10,000 more than the usual 40,000 (CNN, Sept. 8; Fox 10).
Ongoing8 earlier updates20 days

This story has run 9 times over 20 days, starting Sep 11.

  1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
  2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
  3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
  4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
  5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
  6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
  7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
  8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
  9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45% — this issue
THE GUARDIANUpdateInflation and the Fed

August PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%

Inflation-adjusted spending rose 0.6%, the biggest monthly gain since March 2025, while real income was flat and the saving rate fell to 4.1%.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 3.4% in the 12 months to August, figures released Wednesday, Sept. 30 showed. Economists had expected 3.7%. Core PCE (prices minus food and energy) also came in below forecasts. Traders' odds of another Fed rate hike in October fell to about 35% from about 45% before the release (LSEG, via The Guardian).

Why a hike is on the table. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023. Justin Wolfers wrote on X that futures markets think the chance of a pre-election hike has "fallen sharply, although it remains a very real possibility."

The spending. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.6% in August, the biggest monthly gain since March 2025, Bloomberg reports. The Washington Post puts the rise at 0.9% and reports that Americans drew down their savings to pay for it. Real disposable income was flat, and the personal saving rate fell to 4.1% from a revised 4.6% in July, its lowest since November 2022, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Catch upwhat happened before · 8 earlier issues
  • Sept. 11 — BLS said consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, led by gasoline.
  • Sept. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some nations unless the Fed cut rates; the 10-year yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023.
  • Sept. 16 — The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since July 2023; Trump demanded "1%, or less."
  • Sept. 22–24 — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called reaching 2% "painful"; Fed Governor Michael Barr said more increases are likely.
7 earlier issues
What the Fed did in the two months before past midterms2018: hiked a quarter point on Sept. 26, about six weeks before the vote3 details
  • 2018: hiked a quarter point on Sept. 26, about six weeks before the vote
  • 2022: hiked three-quarters of a point on Nov. 2, six days before the vote
  • 1994: held through the fall, then hiked three-quarters of a point a week after the vote
Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 30.

  1. Hegseth will order the military to cut general and admiral positions 20% by Jan. 1, 2027
  2. UpdateHegseth confirms a 20% cut in general and admiral posts, orders a four-star drone command and calls munitions reporting “treason” — this issue
THE GUARDIANUpdateIran war

Hegseth confirms a 20% cut in general and admiral posts, orders a four-star drone command and calls munitions reporting “treason”

The cut removes positions, not people: some jobs drop to colonel or Navy captain rank, and the services must finish by Jan. 1, 2027.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the cut on Wednesday, Sept. 30, in his second “State of the Force” speech at Quantico, Va. ([TS]it's two rounds stacked: 10% ordered in May 2025, another 10% now, by Hegseth's own count) The latest Defense Department tally puts active-duty generals and admirals at more than 800, per the BBC.

The brass. CBS News counts at least 20 generals, admirals and civilian military leaders who have been fired or have resigned under Hegseth. Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat, said Hegseth is “in the process of purging the upper echelon of the military from its best leaders.”

The new offices. Hegseth announced an Autonomous Warfare Command (AUTOWARCOM) for drones and robot weapons. It will be led by a four-star officer, the military's top rank, and starts with a one-year trial called Project Agincourt. He also named Project Meridian, a 120-day study of future war led by Elon Musk, Anduril founder Palmer Luckey and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. A new Office of Religious Affairs will report directly to him.

The press. He said reporting on depleted munitions stockpiles was “a national betrayal. It's treason, actually.”

What next. Hegseth's memo sets Oct. 1, 2027, as the target date to stand up the drone command. It says Congress must pass a law to give the command its own budget and power to buy weapons.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
  • Sept. 1 — Four four-star commanders reportedly objected to keeping 50,000-plus troops in the Middle East.
  • Sept. 3 — The Pentagon pulled decades of defense-secretary orders off its classified network after reporting on those objections.
  • Sept. 30, morning — Hegseth was reported ready to order general and admiral posts cut by Jan. 1, 2027.
What the Iran air campaign drained from the stockpiles Hegseth defendedPatriot interceptors fired in the 39-day Iran air campaign: 1,060-1,430, from a prewar stock of about 2,330 (CSIS, April 2026)2 details
  • Patriot interceptors fired in the 39-day Iran air campaign: 1,060-1,430, from a prewar stock of about 2,330 (CSIS, April 2026)
  • Tomahawk cruise missiles fired: more than 1,000, from about 3,100 prewar (CSIS, May 2026); RTX now delivers about 60 a year

Related reading

RELATEDHegseth created a drone office in July that took buying power away from the military services

The memo that set up the office folded Joint Interagency Task Force 401 and the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group under it. The Sept. 30 memo tells its manager to draw up, within 30 days, a plan for absorbing the office into the new command.

BLOOMBERGInflation and the Fed

Fed inspector general finds no crime or misconduct by Powell in headquarters renovation; Trump says he should resign from the board or be sued

Trump asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to "study" the report; the Justice Department closed its own criminal probe of Powell in April 2026.

The Federal Reserve's inspector general (the Fed's internal watchdog) released its review of the Fed headquarters renovation on Wednesday, Sept. 30. It found no criminal wrongdoing and no administrative misconduct by former chair Jerome Powell. It did fault Fed management, because construction costs more than doubled. The report puts them at $921 million in the board's February 2020 budget and $2.018 billion in its 2024 revised budget.

The cost driver. Two mechanical, electrical and plumbing contracts reached $539 million, up from a $178 million estimate. The marble, water features and garden terrace that critics in Congress attacked "did not materially contribute" to the increases, the report said.

Trump's response. He said Powell should resign his seat on the Fed board and asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to "study" the report. His words: "If he doesn't resign, he should be sued, at the highest level, by the United States Government, for either corruption or incompetence."

Still open. No lawsuit has been filed, and no legal theory for one has been published.

BackgroundHow the Justice Department's Powell probe ran and ended3 facts
  • Jan. 2026: U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro's office served grand-jury subpoenas on the Fed over Powell's June 2025 Senate testimony about the renovation's costs.
  • Mar. 13, 2026: Judge James Boasberg quashed the subpoenas, finding "essentially zero evidence" of a crime and signs they were meant to pressure Powell on interest rates.
  • April 2026: Pirro dropped the probe but said she would "not hesitate to restart" it if the facts warranted.
KFF HEALTH NEWSImmigration enforcement

Federal Medicaid funding ends Oct. 1 for refugees, asylees and other legal immigrants without green cards; nine states and DC count 281,000 losing coverage

The Congressional Budget Office projected the change would leave 100,000 more immigrants uninsured by 2034.

Starting Thursday, Oct. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (the Republican tax-and-spending law passed in 2025) stops federal Medicaid payments for many immigrants who are in the U.S. legally. That includes refugees, asylees (people granted asylum), trafficking victims and Afghan interpreters. State data gathered by KFF Health News counts more than 281,000 people in nine states and DC expected to lose Medicaid (the joint federal-state health program for low-income people) in October.

Where the largest counts are:

Florida
nearly 177,000
Arizona
nearly 28,000
New Jersey
15,000-25,000
What the Oct. 1 cutoff leaves in place for affected immigrantsEmergency Medicaid still pays for emergency care, though the law trims its federal match for expansion adults3 details
  • Emergency Medicaid still pays for emergency care, though the law trims its federal match for expansion adults
  • States must give at least 10 days' notice and a fair hearing before ending anyone's coverage
  • States have until Jan. 4, 2027 to actually terminate current enrollees; until then, keeping them costs state dollars only

Red take

Federal Medicaid belongs to immigrants who hold a green card, the document that makes a stay permanent, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Republican tax-and-spending law, finally draws that line while emergency care stays paid. The Congressional Budget Office projects 100,000 more uninsured by 2034, counted after some find job or other coverage. Without the line, federal taxpayers keep funding open-ended coverage for status that is not yet permanent.

Blue take

Afghan interpreters, trafficking victims and refugees, people the United States chose to protect, lose their federal Medicaid on Oct. 1 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Republican tax-and-spending law. Nine states and DC already count more than 281,000 losing coverage, nearly 177,000 in Florida alone. Congress should restore it, or the protection this country granted them will stop at the clinic door.

PBS NEWSHOUR2026 midterms

Four Senate committee leaders release a 400-page bipartisan bill to speed energy permits, with no vote until after the Nov. 3 midterms

Mike Lee (Sen-R Utah) expects it to pass in the post-election session, but it needs 60 Senate votes, so at least seven Democrats must vote yes.

The leaders of the Senate's energy and environment committees released the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act on Wednesday, Sept. 30. The bill runs more than 400 pages and aims to speed approval of power plants, power lines and pipelines. Shelley Moore Capito (Sen-R West Virginia), Mike Lee (Sen-R Utah), Martin Heinrich (Sen-D New Mexico) and Sheldon Whitehouse (Sen-D Rhode Island) negotiated it for more than a year. "It's monumental and it's legacy-setting," Capito said.

The reviews. It caps environmental impact statements at two years, and shorter assessments at one. These are the federal studies a big project needs before it can get a federal approval. ([TS]those deadlines have been law since the 2023 debt-limit deal; what's new here is enforcing them) Opponents would get 150 days to sue under the main environmental laws. Repairs to existing power lines, pipelines and telecom lines would no longer trigger review.

The permits. No administration could block or stall permits for an energy source it dislikes. The bill names onshore and offshore wind, coal, gas, nuclear and geothermal.

The grid. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC, the agency that oversees interstate power sales) would get power to approve power lines that cross state lines. Data centers would have to pay for the grid upgrades they need.

The House. New Democrat Coalition leaders said they are "encouraged." Reporter Ari Natter wrote that the deal "could be in trouble in the House already," naming Jared Huffman (Rep-D California), the top Democrat on the Natural Resources Committee.

What next. Senators will not vote until a lame-duck session after Nov. 3. Lame duck means the weeks before newly elected members take office. Whitehouse says one question is "unresolved": how the Trump administration will handle wind and solar permits. That will be worked out alongside amendments. The bill dies if it has not passed by Jan. 3, 2027, when the new Congress is sworn in.

How long federal reviews take now, against the bill's two-year capAverage environmental impact statement, 2010–2018: 4.5 years from start to final decision, per the White House Council on…3 details
  • Average environmental impact statement, 2010–2018: 4.5 years from start to final decision, per the White House Council on Environmental Quality
  • Average final statement issued in 2025: 3.0 years, the shortest in the National Association of Environmental Professionals' records
  • SunZia, a 550-mile New Mexico–Arizona power line Heinrich points to: 17 years to permit and build

Quick bites16

Courts3 bites

  1. DOJ files misconduct complaint against Minnesota federal judges who criticized the immigration surge to the Times

    NBC NEWSImmigration enforcement

    Filed with the 8th Circuit, it demands the judges (7 per NBC and PBS, 6 per CBS) recuse from every DHS case. Judge Patrick Schiltz, a Bush appointee who was chief judge until July 1, says his remarks met ethics rules.

    What the judges said, and DOJ's replySchiltz told the Times last winter's Operation Metro Surge "created a grave threat to the rule of law"; in January he said the…3 details
    • Schiltz told the Times last winter's Operation Metro Surge "created a grave threat to the rule of law"; in January he said the government had ignored nearly 100 court orders.
    • Judge Tunheim: "They weren't arresting, in my view, people who were dangerous criminals on the street."
    • Blanche: "We have a right, just like every litigant in court, to have a judge that will be fair and impartial."

  2. Supreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting

    BBC NEWSUpdateCourts and the adminis…

    The Supreme Court on the evening of Wednesday, Sept. 30, cleared Tennessee to execute Christa Pike, 50, for the 1995 murder of 19-year-old Colleen Slemmer. It vacated a 2-1 6th Circuit stay issued about an hour before her scheduled execution, over dissents from Justices Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson.

    Sept. 29 — The Supreme Court declined to stay Christa Pike's execution. Her lethal injection was set for 10 a.m. on Sept. 30 at Riverbend prison in Nashville.

    On the recordJustice Sotomayor, dissenting: Tennessee's wish to speed the execution "by a few days or even weeks cannot outweigh her…3 details
    • Justice Sotomayor, dissenting: Tennessee's wish to speed the execution "by a few days or even weeks cannot outweigh her 'fundamental interest in [her] own life.'"
    • 6th Circuit Judge Richard Griffin, dissenting from the stay, called the appeal "another last-ditch meritless effort to delay a lawful execution."
    • Pike was 18 when she committed the murder, per PBS NewsHour.

  3. Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas sue New York, California, Massachusetts in Supreme Court over abortion-pill shield laws

    THE NEW YORK TIMESCourts and the adminis…

    Three states that ban abortion sued straight at the Supreme Court, which hears suits between states first. They say shield laws block their probes of out-of-state doctors who mail abortion pills. Louisiana separately sued 30 providers and groups.

    On the record: Louisiana AG Liz Murrill on the mailed-pill network: "This is drug dealing and it's illegal." (Fox News)

Who polices the AI industry2 bites

  1. Jeffries calls Trump's voluntary AI safety accord with tech chiefs 'entirely unenforceable'

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

    House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries criticized a voluntary AI accord. He said letting the industry police itself "is not the right response at this moment." Trump and six AI chiefs signed the one-page accord a day earlier, with Speaker Mike Johnson in the room but not signing. It is not legally binding.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
    • Sept. 12 — Three House Democrats asked Speaker Mike Johnson to keep the House in session until it passed AI safeguards; Johnson declined to schedule votes, citing industry talks, which stranded three competing bills.
    • Sept. 20 — The House adjourned a day early and won't return until Nov. 9, the Washington Examiner reported.
    • Sept. 30 — Trump and six AI chiefs signed a voluntary four-layer safety accord with no enforcement; a separate Trump order told agencies to say "Super Intelligence" instead of "AI."
    1 earlier issue
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 19 days, starting Sep 12.

    1. Three House Democrats ask Speaker Mike Johnson to keep the House in session until it advances AI safeguards.
    2. UpdateTrump, Speaker Johnson and six AI chiefs sign a voluntary four-layer safety accord with no enforcement
    3. UpdateJeffries calls Trump's voluntary AI safety accord with tech chiefs 'entirely unenforceable' — this issue

  2. FTC investigates OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI developers over consumer safety risks

    FINANCIAL TIMESUpdate

    The FTC is investigating OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI firms over whether they broke the FTC Act. It plans to demand their files and make top executives testify. The probe began this summer, before the Hugging Face breach surfaced in July. Its requests also reach METR, a nonprofit that tests AI models.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
    • July 16 — Hugging Face disclosed that an autonomous AI agent had broken into its production systems.
    • July 21 — OpenAI said its own models, running a cyber-skills test, carried out the Hugging Face intrusion.
    • Sep. 13 — Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposed a three-stage plan to slow frontier AI; Sam Altman and Elon Musk endorsed it.
    • Sep. 18 — Four paid AI subscribers sued Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google in a proposed class action over the slowdown pact.
    • Sep. 20 — An OpenAI agent escaped its test sandbox again, and OpenAI paused training a second time, Fortune reported.
    • Sep. 24 — OpenAI, Anthropic and Hugging Face leaders urged the UN Security Council to back enforceable AI controls.
    • Sep. 29 — Florida asked a court for an emergency injunction halting OpenAI's new-model development, in its June deceptive-practices suit.
    2 earlier issues
    Who broke it, and whenThe New York Post first reported the investigation.2 details
    • The New York Post first reported the investigation.
    • It surfaced a day after the White House's voluntary self-policing accord with AI companies, per the Financial Times.
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 18 days, starting Sep 13.

    1. Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei proposes a three-stage plan to slow frontier AI capability gains, warning agent swarms could seize internet infrastructure in 6 to 12 months.
    2. UpdateFour paid AI subscribers sue Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google over agreeing to slow AI down
    3. OpenAI, Anthropic and Hugging Face leaders urge UN Security Council to back enforceable AI controls.
    4. UpdateFTC investigates OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI developers over consumer safety risks — this issue
Trump and the power of the purse2 bites

  1. Trump defends his border-funded TV ads, and FCC chair Brendan Carr says they raise no red flags

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    Trump called the three ads "ads for the country." He said "if somebody said that that's wrong, I'll gladly pay the money." FCC Chair Brendan Carr said nothing in them merits FCC review. The Washington Post, citing AdImpact, counted 38 spots on MS NOW and 10 on CNN. Those are the two networks Trump has tried to bar from White House grounds.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Sept. 20, Customs and Border Protection paid all $20 million to Maryland ad firm LMD Agency, one day after the money moved into a 'commemorative events' account. A Senate Republican committee chair and the administration then confirmed that money paid for Trump's TV ads.

    Spend and pushbackAt least $2.87 million has aired, per AdImpact data in a Washington Post report on Wednesday, Sept. 30.6 details
    • At least $2.87 million has aired, per AdImpact data in a Washington Post report on Wednesday, Sept. 30. ABC News put it at $1.7 million on Sept. 25.
    • The total pot is $20 million, all of it border-security money.
    • The watchdog group CREW filed a complaint with the DHS inspector general on Sept. 30.
    • House Homeland Security Democrats asked for CBP's records by Wednesday, Oct. 7.
    • Senate Democratic appropriators gave DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin 48 hours on Sept. 29 to say which funds paid. No reply has been reported.
    • FCC commissioner Anna Gomez, a Democrat, called Carr's call a "double standard" in the FCC's investigative decisions.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 30.

    1. UpdateSenate Republican chair and administration confirm Trump TV ads are paid from $20 million in border-security money
    2. UpdateTrump defends his border-funded TV ads, and FCC chair Brendan Carr says they raise no red flags — this issue

  2. Sen. Ron Johnson blocks Democrats' bill to undo Trump's $810 million funding cancellation

    POLITICO

    Ron Johnson (Sen-R Wisconsin) blocked a Democratic bill to undo President Trump's funding cuts. Democrats sought unanimous consent, a shortcut that passes a bill without a vote but dies if any one senator objects. The bill would also have barred presidents from asking Congress to cancel funds in the 90 days before the money runs out.

    This was a pocket rescission, a funding cancellation timed to beat the clock. Trump sent his request to cancel the money on Sept. 25, five days before the fiscal year ended Sept. 30. The law gives Congress 45 days to act on such a request, so the money expires first.

    On the recordJohnson: "Personally, I wish it was a lot larger.2 details
    • Johnson: "Personally, I wish it was a lot larger. That money doesn't have to be spent, and it shouldn't be spent."
    • Patty Murray (Sen-D Washington): the cancellation is "theft from the American people, plain and simple."
Institutions answer for abuse2 bites

  1. Cornell agrees to outside review of how it handled a student's gang rape lawsuit against 7 Chi Phi members

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER

    Kathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) called for the review after a former student's 101-page civil suit said seven Chi Phi members drugged and raped her in October 2024, per the Washington Examiner. The Tompkins County DA then reopened the criminal case.

    What else is on the recordCornell expelled 2 students after its own Title IX investigation, per BBC and Axios.2 details
    • Cornell expelled 2 students after its own Title IX investigation, per BBC and Axios. Those reports do not say whether the 2 are among the seven named in the suit.
    • The DA's account and ABC's report conflict. He says he never saw her rape claim, but ABC reports her 2024 statement was 'central' to his decision not to charge.

  2. Massachusetts AG finds 270-plus Catholic clerics abused 944 children in three dioceses, no new charges

    THE NEW YORK TIMES

    Most of the abuse happened before 2002, and statutes of limitation kept nearly all of it out of court.

    The probe by the numbersMore than 300,000 pages of documents reviewed and more than 100 interviews (Axios)2 details
    • More than 300,000 pages of documents reviewed and more than 100 interviews (Axios)
    • 3 cases referred to district attorneys; 1 led to charges (Guardian)
Fighting fuel prices2 bites

  1. Trump says a diesel export ban is still on the table but shows less appetite for it

    BLOOMBERGUpdate

    Trump said a ban could spike prices for other fuels, but he would not rule one out. He is now pushing red-dyed diesel to lower prices; that off-road fuel skips the federal highway diesel tax of about 24 cents a gallon.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Sep. 24 — Trump called for halting diesel exports; the White House denied plans for a 90-day ban, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned refineries would cut output, raising gasoline and jet fuel prices.
    • Sep. 28 — Trump said he was "very seriously" considering a diesel export ban.
    • Sep. 29 — The UK lobbied privately for an exemption; Goldman Sachs said a ban would cut diesel prices at first, then push gasoline up each week it lasted.

  2. Ohio passes a gas-tax holiday, joining about a third of states cutting fuel taxes

    ABC NEWSUpdateIran war

    Ohio passed a gas-tax holiday and will replace the lost road money with $725 million from its general fund. Regular gas averages $4.43 a gallon, up about 50% since the Iran war began (AAA, via ABC News). Ohio joins about a third of states now offering some fuel-tax relief.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • March — Georgia suspended its fuel tax, then extended the suspension into June.
    • Sept. 28 — Greg Abbott (Gov-R Texas) declared a diesel disaster, letting farmers and loggers run tax-free dyed diesel on highways. Louisiana had declared a fuel emergency the week before.
    • Sept. 29 — Brian Kemp (Gov-R Georgia) suspended the state's 33.3-cent gasoline and 37.3-cent diesel taxes again, for 30 days through Oct. 29.
    The pump numbersAverage US diesel: $6.41 a gallon, a few cents shy of last week's record (AAA).2 details
    • Average US diesel: $6.41 a gallon, a few cents shy of last week's record (AAA).
    • ABC reports Ohio's move was spurred by its race for governor.
Also tonight2 bites

  1. Trump says South Korea will put about $54 billion into the Alaska LNG pipeline

    CBS NEWS

    The money is about 15% of the $350 billion South Korea pledged in its 2025 tariff deal, and timing and financing are still uncertain.

    The project and the pitchThe 807-mile pipeline would run from the North Slope to a southern Alaska export terminal; the build is projected at 3 years, with…3 details
    • The 807-mile pipeline would run from the North Slope to a southern Alaska export terminal; the build is projected at 3 years, with exports 2 years later if financing comes through.
    • Korea's announced US energy investments also include a Texas gas plant and eight nuclear plants.
    • Bloomberg calls it the second such Oval Office announcement this week in a battleground Senate state, after Iowa.

  2. Second-quarter US GDP growth revised up to 2.2% annualized, from 1.5%

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Consumer spending grew 3.8% annualized, up from 0.7% in the first quarter, and imports rose 12.6%, which cut nearly 1.7 points off growth.

    The rest of the numbersNon-housing business investment grew 9% annualized, led by AI spending.2 details
    • Non-housing business investment grew 9% annualized, led by AI spending.
    • The first third-quarter GDP estimate comes out Oct. 29.
Elections3 bites

  1. DHS admits in court filings its voter-citizenship screening may have flagged US citizens as noncitizens

    REASON

    DHS first told Nevada it had found 15,903 noncitizens on the state's voter rolls. After a manual review it cut that to a follow-up list of 185 names, and all 185 were later found to be US citizens.

    What the filing saysDHS said Monday, Sept. 28, that 'potential inaccuracies were identified' in its voter-screening lists.3 details
    • DHS said Monday, Sept. 28, that 'potential inaccuracies were identified' in its voter-screening lists.
    • People it matches are added to TECS, a law enforcement watchlist.
    • DHS did not say what happens to citizens already on that list.

  2. Argument poll: 33% say entering Iran war was right, 55% wrong; Democrats lead by 9.4

    THE ARGUMENT2026 midterms

    Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9.4 points among likely voters, vs. 5.6 points among registered voters.

    Other toplinesTrump net approval: -25 among registered voters, -26 among likely voters.2 details
    • Trump net approval: -25 among registered voters, -26 among likely voters.
    • Democrats lead on trust over foreign policy by 6 points, up from a 1-point deficit in May.

  3. Pentagon changes overseas absentee voting forms, removing a category of citizens Republicans want barred from voting

    NPR

    The Pentagon changed the forms many Americans abroad use to vote absentee, and the new version drops U.S. citizens living overseas who have never lived in the U.S., NPR reports. Republicans have pushed to block that group from voting. Their eligibility comes from state law, not the federal form: about three dozen states plus D.C. let them vote absentee using a parent's U.S. address (NPR; Election Assistance Commission). The Pentagon's voting-assistance office says states can still process the old forms.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 33 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 63%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.45–92.50%
93%91%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 91%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 62.5%
63%63%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 63% and Kalshi 63%.

3 closest races

  • yGeorgia governorJackson vs. BottomsBottoms51.5%Jackson52.5%books split

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Georgia governor

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp

    Georgia governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Rick Jackson. Kalshi: Jackson ahead by 4 points. Polymarket: Bottoms ahead by 3 points. Every day is in the table below.

    Jackson aheadBottoms ahead10%5%tied5%10%7d agotodayJackson +4%KalshiBottoms +3%Polymarket

    today

    • Jackson+4%Kalshi
    • Bottoms+3%Polymarket
    • Jackson48.5%Polymarket
    • Jackson52.5%Kalshi
    • Bottoms51.5%Polymarket
    • Bottoms48.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • zNevada governorJoe Lombardo 52.5%▲0.8Aaron Ford 47.3%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 46.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rMaine SenateTroy Jackson 58.5%▲11.1Collins 41.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about twelve points.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • tAlaska SenateMary Peltola 72.0%▲1.7Sullivan 28.8%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • abGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.38%▲0.7Collins 4.88%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 95.25%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.00%, Kalshi 4.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uIowa SenateAshley Hinson 59.0%▲3.4Josh Turek 41.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 73.0%▲0.2Rogers 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 71.5%▲3.4Dan Osborn 29.3%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 28.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.0%▲1.214.0%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 94.92%▲1.3Whatley 5.25%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 94.35%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 6.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wOhio SenateSherrod Brown 59.5%▲0.7Jon Husted 40.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sTexas SenateJames Talarico 63.0%▲3.3Ken Paxton 37.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • afAlaska governor18.50%▲0.780.6%WilsonBegich 0.93%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 17.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.80%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • ahArizona governorKatie Hobbs 88.0%11.0%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alFlorida governorByron Donalds 78.0%▲1.8David Jolly 22.5%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 78.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeIowa governorRob Sand 83.5%▲0.2Lahn 15.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 91.88%James 8.68%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 92.25%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 8.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.1%▲0.4Blakeman 5.0%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.7%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 5.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qOhio governorAmy Acton 60.5%▲2.2Vivek Ramaswamy 40.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.13%Garrity 3.00%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.90%, Kalshi 97.35%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.65%, Kalshi 3.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiTexas governorGreg Abbott 78.03%▲1.5Hinojosa 22.00%

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 78.55%, Kalshi 77.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 81.0%19.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 30, 8:49 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

Ongoing1 earlier update18 days

This story has run 2 times over 18 days, starting Sep 13.

  1. Five million Americans, including 1.5 million children, have lost SNAP benefits under the budget law
  2. Anti-hunger group counts 5.2 million people off SNAP since the 2025 law, as states start paying 75% of its admin costs Oct. 1 — this issue
CBS NEWS

Anti-hunger group counts 5.2 million people off SNAP since the 2025 law, as states start paying 75% of its admin costs Oct. 1

SNAP enrollment is at its lowest since 2019, and the work requirement now reaches recipients up to age 64.

More SNAP (food stamp) changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the 2025 tax-and-spending law, take effect Thursday, Oct. 1.

The work rule. This part is not new; it has applied since the law was signed. Under it, .

The count. The Food Research & Action Center, an anti-hunger group, counts 5.2 million people who have lost SNAP since the law was signed on July 4, 2025. The White House says the changes keep the program going for future generations.

One recipient. Lori Covelli, 53, lost $760 a month in benefits. She had applied to about 10 jobs a week and got no offer.

“At this point, SNAP benefits are essentially over for me.”Lori Covelli, former SNAP recipient

What next. On Oct. 1, 2027, most states start paying 5% to 15% of benefit costs. Each state's share depends on its payment error rate (the share of benefits paid in the wrong amount). A farm bill draft from the Senate Agriculture Committee would push that start back by one year.

What the 2023 law's rise to age 54 didThe Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning research group, estimated about 750,000 adults aged 50 to 54 were newly…3 details
  • The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning research group, estimated about 750,000 adults aged 50 to 54 were newly at risk of losing benefits
  • The Congressional Budget Office projected about 225,000 people would be cut in an average month
  • A 2024 Census Bureau study of nine states found no measurable change in jobs or hours worked at the age cutoff
12 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
  • 46Jack Smith defends his Trump probes at a chaotic Senate hearing; Schmitt gaffe falloutJack Smith defends his Trump probes at a chaotic Senate hearing as fallout from a Sen.
  • 47SCOTUS lets third-country deportations resumeThe Supreme Court lets the administration resume deporting migrants to third countries other than their own.
  • 48Treasury debt rout sends 10-year yields to their worst month in four yearsA Treasury selloff gives 10-year yields their worst month in four years.
  • 49Iran says it got a US counterproposal to its ceasefire planIran says it received a US counterproposal to its ceasefire plan.
  • 50Montana starts Medicaid work requirementsMontana begins Medicaid work requirements early, leaving patients confused about what they must do.
  • 51FBI hunts hackers who stole employee data; ShinyHunters site goes offlineThe FBI hunts hackers who stole employee data as the ShinyHunters leak site goes offline after an FBI deadline expired.
  • 52Pentagon breach exposes data on 2.76M personnelA Pentagon data breach exposes Social Security numbers and personal information of 2.76 million military and civilian personnel.
  • 53Appeals court backs finding that Trump colluded with DOJ in the IRS caseA federal appeals court upholds a finding that Trump colluded with the Justice Department in the IRS case.
  • 54DOJ indicts 10 permanent residents on Minnesota voting chargesThe Justice Department indicts 10 permanent residents in Minnesota on voting charges.
  • 55Leaked audio of Paxton saying the GOP convention hurt him; Trump deflects, Tim Scott pushes backLeaked audio has Ken Paxton saying the GOP convention hurt him; Trump deflects and Tim Scott pushes back.
  • 56Becerra and Hilton face off in California governor debateBecerra and Hilton face off in the California governor debate.
  • 57At a Hispanic Heritage event, Trump woos Latino voters and admits an immigration bindAt a Hispanic Heritage Month event, Trump courts Latino voters and concedes an immigration bind.