Political Guyentist · October 3, 20261 min read

Markets, not polling

Troy Jackson 59.0%▲1.1Susan Collins 40.5%

In the Sept. 23–Oct. 1 poll of 1,114 registered voters, Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) wins about one in five Trump disapprovers, while Troy Jackson (D-ME) still suffers from primary discontent.

Inside the pollAbout 10% of Maine voters say they could still change their minds.2 details

About 10% of Maine voters say they could still change their minds.
The tie holds even though national conditions favor Democrats, per CBS.

What we’re less sure of2 of 7 claims

Medium
Troy Jackson still suffers from primary discontent.
This is partly inferred. The sources (AP, BDN, Guardian, Maine Public, WMTW) document the chaotic primary, Platner's exit and Mills never endorsing. But 'still suffers' is the desk's characterization, not a statement the story assigns to CBS or the poll.
Medium
The tie holds even though national conditions favor Democrats.
This is an interpretation explicitly attributed to CBS ('per CBS'). It is CBS's analytic judgment, not hard data.

Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are tied in Maine's Senate race, CBS/YouGov poll finds

What we’re less sure of2 of 7 claims