News news1 story
Revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August, turning July into a 10,000-job loss. This is the last jobs report before the Nov. 3 midterms.
Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department said Friday, Oct. 2. Forecasters expected 84,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August. Average hourly pay reached $37.81, up 3% in a year, which is below August's 3.4% inflation rate. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett credited the 485,000 people who joined the labor force, saying they expect to "make so much money." ([TS]Pay adjusted for inflation has fallen year over year for five straight months, per BLS.)
Where September's jobs came and went:
- Health care
- +16,700
- Government, mostly local
- -17,000
- Tech
- -17,000
Tech employment is down 69,000 over the past year, per Joseph Politano.
Quick bites11
Attorney General Letitia James opens criminal probe of alleged Cornell fraternity gang rape
POLITICOUpdateKathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) appointed James special prosecutor. James announced an 'active criminal investigation.' Hochul blamed Cornell police for sending an incomplete record. She also blamed the DA for never interviewing the accuser. Hochul vowed to close the state's 'voluntary intoxication' loophole in rape law in January.
Catch up
In October 2024 a Cornell student says she was gang-raped at the Chi Phi fraternity house. Oct. 1 — Cornell agreed to an outside review of its handling as the Tompkins County DA reopened the criminal case, saying he had never seen her rape claim. More than 50 Chi Phi brothers were in a Snapchat group chat during the alleged assault, per ABC News. Trump called James 'corrupt' and said 'whoever she's looking at' won't 'get a fair shake.'
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Oct 1.
- Cornell agrees to outside review of how it handled a student's gang rape lawsuit against 7 Chi Phi members
- UpdateAttorney General Letitia James opens criminal probe of alleged Cornell fraternity gang rape — this issue
Christa Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence
THE GUARDIANUpdatePike is unconscious on a ventilator, her lawyers say. They filed an emergency motion alleging misplaced IV lines sent pentobarbital into her tissue instead of her bloodstream. The execution team spent about an hour on the attempt. By her attorney's count, they used at least seven needles on her left arm.
Catch up
On the evening of Sept. 30, the Supreme Court lifted a 2-1 6th Circuit stay issued about an hour before Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, with the three liberal justices dissenting. Pike, 50, then survived two pentobarbital doses after roughly an hour of IV attempts and was hospitalized in critical condition, and Tennessee canceled its last execution of 2026.
It is Tennessee's second failed execution this year, after Tony Carruthers in May (The Hill). The Death Penalty Information Center counts 64 botched U.S. executions since 1982, 51 of them lethal injections.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 1.
- UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
- UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
- UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence — this issue
Trump expected to name Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton as White House AI czar
WSJBloomberg, the New York Times and CNN report the same expected pick. Bloomberg's headline says safety fears over AI are rising.
Federal judge finds warrantless Flock plate search unconstitutional
404 MEDIACourts and the adminis…U.S. District Judge Sara Hill in Oklahoma called Flock's plate-reader network "a type of indiscriminate mass surveillance." A deputy had searched a driver's California plate without a warrant or probable cause. The ruling binds no other court.
- Police run more than 100,000 warrantless Flock searches a month, per audit logs reviewed by 404 Media.
- The Washington Post also reported the ruling on Oct. 2.
Justice Samuel Alito, 76, says he considered retiring after last term but stayed and will reconsider yearly
THE HILLAlito told CBS he "thought about" leaving but believed he could still make a valuable contribution, and he called harsh criticism of the Court from Presidents Biden and Trump "quite damaging."
What else Alito said
- On Dobbs: "it required courage to go ahead with that because of the implications."
- On rulings: "There are cases that have resulted in the loss of old friendships."
- He described threats against justices as a danger.
Supreme Court opens its term Oct. 5 with 30 cases, after rulings against Trump on tariffs and more
PBS NEWSHOURCourts and the adminis…The 30 cases the Court has taken so far cover climate liability, guns, immigration and religious liberty.
Where Trump stands with the Court
- The Court ruled against Trump on tariffs (Feb. 20), birthright citizenship (June 30), mail-in voting (Sept. 14) and a Fed firing.
- Trump to Time: "I gave them the position of a lifetime, and they vote against me often."
- His administration has still won many rulings on the emergency docket.
Ongoing12
This story has run 13 times over 38 days, starting Aug 26.
- USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
- Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
- UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
- UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
- Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
- UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
- Update3-0 First Circuit keeps Trump mail-ballot rule blocked as 7 Republican officials oppose pre-November start
- UpdateSupreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote
- UpdateMail ballots will move under pre-2026 rules on Nov. 3 as the administration stands down
- UpdateSupreme Court lets states resume checking voter rolls against Trump's expanded federal citizenship database while the case is appealed
- Supreme Court votes 6-3 to let Trump deport migrants to third countries without notice or a chance to raise torture fears
- Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearing
- Supreme Court opens its term Oct. 5 with 30 cases, after rulings against Trump on tariffs and more — this issue
Agency that tried to shut Voice of America is now rehiring staff and buying equipment, IG finds
POLITICOA State Department inspector general report says the U.S. Agency for Global Media is buying new equipment and rehiring staff. It is also paying 420 employees about $1.6 million a week to stay on leave. The report says the agency could not show it weighed the costs and benefits of the cuts.
- Administration's projected cost to shut the agency down in fiscal 2026: $153 million.
- Funding Congress gave the agency for fiscal 2026: $643 million.
- Leave pay for 420 idled employees: $3.2 million every two weeks.
Treasury sanctions two French charities and three people over $2M+ sent to Hamas; six arrested
THE GUARDIANGaza and HamasThe Justice Department unsealed an indictment against alleged organizer Saleem Alzaq, which says his network collected about $1.7 million through fake humanitarian fundraising and cryptocurrency, slightly below Treasury's $2 million-plus total for 2020–2026.
- About $1.5 million was allegedly raised after the Oct. 7, 2023 attack.
- Tampa-area defendant Raed Yousef allegedly gave the network nearly $50,000 (single-outlet figure, Washington Examiner).
Defense Secretary Hegseth gives all troops a day off by Oct. 15 to register to vote
THE HILLHegseth said about 300,000 troops did not register two years ago, and about two-thirds of active-duty members were registered in 2024, down 3 points from 2020.
- Hegseth said the stand-down will repeat in future even-year elections.
- Hegseth: "Now we're not telling you who to vote for, but we will give you every opportunity to do so."
US refuses Saudi requests for airstrikes on Houthis, sends targeting data for Saudi offensive instead
AXIOSIran warIn the past two weeks the US military gave the Saudis more than 200 Houthi targets. This is the second time in recent weeks Washington has said no to Saudi requests for US strikes, according to US officials who spoke to Axios.
- A US official: the US "is not going to take kinetic action for now."
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 22 days, starting Sep 11.
- CNN: More than 100 US advisers support Saudi campaign against Houthis
- UpdateHouthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers
- US refuses Saudi requests for airstrikes on Houthis, sends targeting data for Saudi offensive instead — this issue
Trump leaves open invoking the Insurrection Act around the midterms
CNN2026 midtermsIn a Sept. 28 Oval Office interview with TIME, published Thursday, Trump would not rule out invoking the Insurrection Act or declaring a national emergency around the Nov. 3 elections.
- "I'm not committing to anything. We're going to see how it plays out in court," he said, The Hill reported.
- The Insurrection Act lets a president use the military or federalize the National Guard to put down what he deems an insurrection.
- On Aug. 31, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine wrote to Sen. Elissa Slotkin that the military has "no plans" to send federal troops or federalized Guard to polling places.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 31 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 94%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.6pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 93% | 92% | 63% | 62% |
| 6 days ago | 93% | 92% | 63% | 62% |
| 5 days ago | 93% | 91% | 63% | 62% |
| 4 days ago | 93% | 92% | 63% | 62% |
| 3 days ago | 93% | 92% | 63% | 63% |
| 2 days ago | 93% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| yesterday | 94% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| today | 94% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
3 closest races
tGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rick Jackson 52% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$64.1K45.5%Kalshi567K contracts · 52%/53%50.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+6.0ppKeisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$76.0K51.5%Kalshi606K contracts · 47%/48%51.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi 7 days ago 45.5% 50.0% 51.5% 51.0% 6 days ago 47.5% 50.0% 52.5% 51.0% 5 days ago 47.5% 52.0% 52.5% 51.0% 4 days ago 48.5% 52.0% 52.5% 49.0% 3 days ago 52.0% 52.0% 48.5% 50.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 52.0% 48.5% 48.0% yesterday 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 49.0% today 51.5% 52.5% 48.5% 47.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 53% · Aaron Ford 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$120K50.5%Kalshi326K contracts · 53%/54%54.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$62.8K49.5%Kalshi573K contracts · 46%/47%46.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 54.0% 49.5% 46.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 47.5% 47.0% 5 days ago 52.5% 54.0% 47.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 52.0% 48.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 54.0% 48.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 49.0% 47.0% yesterday 50.5% 52.0% 49.5% 47.0% today 50.5% 53.5% 49.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 43.0%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 56% · Josh Turek 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$329K58.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 55%/56%57.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$380K41.5%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 44%/45%44.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 57.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 41.5% 42.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 41.5% 42.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 43.0% 42.0% yesterday 56.5% 56.0% 43.0% 45.0% today 56.5% 55.5% 43.0% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
oAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 71% · Dan Sullivan 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$682K72.5%Kalshi173K contracts · 70%/71%73.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$320K28.5%Kalshi150K contracts · 30%/33%28.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 28.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 29.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 27.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 28.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 71.5% 70.0% 28.5% 29.0% yesterday 70.5% 69.0% 28.5% 30.0% today 70.5% 70.5% 28.5% 31.5% wGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 97.20%, Kalshi 96.05%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 2.9%, Kalshi 4.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 96% · Mike Collins 4.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$88.9K95.5%Kalshi447K contracts · 96%/96%94.5%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+1.7ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$116K3.95%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 4.0%/4.4%5.90%venue gap1.9pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% 94.50% 3.95% 5.9% 6 days ago 95.50% 94.10% 4.05% 5.7% 5 days ago 95.50% 94.80% 4.00% 4.2% 4 days ago 95.50% 95.80% 3.95% 4.6% 3 days ago 97.30% 95.00% 2.85% 5.5% 2 days ago 97.15% 95.30% 2.65% 4.7% yesterday 97.20% 96.30% 2.90% 4.4% today 97.20% 96.05% 2.90% 4.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lMaine SenateSusan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are tied in Maine's Senate race, CBS/YouGov poll finds
CBS NEWS: Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are tied in Maine's Senate race, CBS/YouGov poll finds
In the Sept. 23–Oct. 1 poll of 1,114 registered voters, Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) wins about one in five Trump disapprovers, while Troy Jackson (D-ME) still suffers from primary discontent.
Inside the poll:
- About 10% of Maine voters say they could still change their minds.
- The tie holds even though national conditions favor Democrats, per CBS.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 59% · Susan Collins 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M60.5%Kalshi3.5M contracts · 59%/60%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$896K40.5%Kalshi3.8M contracts · 40%/41%40.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 40.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 38.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 40.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 40.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 59.0% 42.5% 42.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 40.5% 41.0% yesterday 58.5% 60.0% 40.5% 41.0% today 58.5% 59.5% 40.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 72% · Mike Rogers 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$709K70.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 71%/73%72.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$540K29.5%Kalshi2.8M contracts · 27%/28%29.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 72% 29.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 72% 30.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 72% 28.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 74% 27.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 71.5% 73% 28.5% 29.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 72% 27.5% 30.0% yesterday 72.5% 73% 27.5% 27.0% today 72.5% 72% 27.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn lost about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 73% · Dan Osborn 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$260K69.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 72%/73%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+4.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$126K30.5%Kalshi844K contracts · 27%/28%30.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 71.0% 30.5% 28.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 73.0% 30.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 73.5% 72.0% 25.5% 29.0% 2 days ago 74.0% 73.0% 25.5% 27.0% yesterday 73.5% 73.0% 25.5% 28.0% today 73.5% 72.5% 25.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 87% · John E. Sununu 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$146K85%Kalshi464K contracts · 86%/87%86%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+1.5ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$150K13.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 13%/14%15.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 85.0% 86.0% 13.5% 15.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 85.0% 14.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 86.5% 86.0% 12.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 85.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% 2 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13.0% yesterday 86.5% 85.0% 13.5% 15.0% today 86.5% 86.5% 13.5% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 94.95%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 4%, Kalshi 5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 95% · Michael Whatley 4.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$105K95.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 95%/95%93.6%venue gap1.9pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K5.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 4.8%/5.2%6.5%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% 93.60% 5.5% 6.5% 6 days ago 95.5% 93.60% 5.5% 6.7% 5 days ago 95.5% 94.30% 5.5% 5.8% 4 days ago 95.5% 94.60% 4.5% 6.0% 3 days ago 95.5% 94.10% 4.5% 6.5% 2 days ago 95.5% 94.10% 4.5% 6.3% yesterday 95.5% 95.00% 4.0% 4.8% today 95.5% 94.95% 4.0% 5.0% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 59% · Jon Husted 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$595K57.5%Kalshi2.9M contracts · 59%/60%59.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$423K41.5%Kalshi2.8M contracts · 40%/41%42.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.5% 59.0% 41.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 57.5% 58.0% 42.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 62.0% 59.0% 37.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 39.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 41.5% 40.0% yesterday 58.5% 60.0% 41.5% 41.0% today 58.5% 59.5% 41.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
nTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 63% · Ken Paxton 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$847K60.5%Kalshi7.1M contracts · 63%/64%60.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$902K39.5%Kalshi10.0M contracts · 37%/38%40.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 39.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 59.0% 35.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 38.5% 39.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 63.0% 38.5% 37.0% yesterday 60.5% 64.0% 38.5% 38.0% today 60.5% 63.5% 38.5% 37.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
aaAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 17.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.80%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 18% · Tom Begich 0.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$185K19.5%Kalshi58.3K contracts · 16%/19%—venue gap—7-day move-2.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$166K1.3%Kalshi246K contracts · 0.6%/1.0%—venue gap—7-day move-0.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 19.5% — 1.30% — 6 days ago 19.5% — 1.25% 0.6% 5 days ago 19.5% 17.0% 1.25% 0.3% 4 days ago 19.5% 19.0% 1.05% 1.0% 3 days ago 18.0% 14.0% 1.05% 0.9% 2 days ago 18.0% 18.0% 1.05% 0.6% yesterday 17.5% 16.0% 1.05% 0.6% today 17.5% 17.5% 1.05% 0.8% acArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.5K88.5%Kalshi345K contracts · 88%/89%89.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.7K10.5%Kalshi278K contracts · 11%/13%13.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13% 6 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13% 5 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13% 4 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13% 3 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12% 2 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12% yesterday 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13% today 88.5% 88.5% 10.5% 12% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 78% · David Jolly 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$121K79.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 77%/78%78.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$131K21.5%Kalshi730K contracts · 23%/24%23.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 79.5% 78.0% 21.5% 23.0% 6 days ago 78.5% 79.0% 21.5% 22.0% 5 days ago 79.0% 78.0% 21.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 21.5% 23.0% 3 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 21.5% 24.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% yesterday 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 23.0% today 77.5% 77.5% 22.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 85% · Zach Lahn 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.1K88%Kalshi413K contracts · 84%/85%84%venue gap4.0pp7-day move-3.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.5K11%Kalshi409K contracts · 16%/17%18%venue gap7.0pp7-day move+3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.0% 84.0% 11.0% 18.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 85.0% 13.5% 16.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 15.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% yesterday 84.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% today 84.5% 84.5% 14.5% 16.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.3%; John James (R): Polymarket 4.55%, Kalshi 7.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 93% · John James 6.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$71.3K92.5%Kalshi80.1K contracts · 92%/93%92.9%venue gap0.4pp7-day move+1.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$166K6.5%Kalshi162K contracts · 7.0%/8.1%7.9%venue gap1.4pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 92.9% 6.50% 7.90% 6 days ago 92.5% 91.9% 6.50% 8.00% 5 days ago 92.5% 91.7% 6.50% 8.70% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.8% 8.50% 8.70% 3 days ago 91.5% 92.8% 8.50% 9.90% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.8% 8.50% 8.60% yesterday 93.5% 92.6% 4.55% 6.90% today 93.5% 92.3% 4.55% 7.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 95.05%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 4.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 95% · Bruce Blakeman 4.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.4K95.5%Kalshi421K contracts · 95%/95%94.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$72.0K4.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 4.7%/5.2%6.1%venue gap1.6pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% 94.00% 4.5% 6.10% 6 days ago 95.5% 94.70% 4.5% 6.10% 5 days ago 95.5% 94.80% 4.5% 5.90% 4 days ago 95.5% 94.50% 4.5% 5.60% 3 days ago 95.5% 94.40% 4.5% 4.90% 2 days ago 95.5% 95.00% 4.5% 5.70% yesterday 95.5% 95.00% 4.5% 5.20% today 95.5% 95.05% 4.5% 4.95% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 62% · Vivek Ramaswamy 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$125K62.5%Kalshi871K contracts · 62%/63%62.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$147K36.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 37%/38%39.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 62.5% 62.0% 36.5% 39.0% 6 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 40.0% 41.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 36.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 61.5% 62.0% 36.5% 38.0% yesterday 61.5% 62.0% 36.5% 38.0% today 61.5% 62.5% 36.5% 37.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.85%, Kalshi 97.50%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K97.05%Kalshi105K contracts · 97%/98%97.70%venue gap0.6pp7-day move-0.2ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.5K2.65%Kalshi411K contracts · 2.8%/3.6%2.60%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.05% 97.7% 2.65% 2.6% 6 days ago 96.90% 97.4% 2.65% 2.8% 5 days ago 96.90% 97.7% 2.65% 2.7% 4 days ago 96.95% 97.7% 2.65% 4.9% 3 days ago 97.05% 97.3% 2.60% 2.7% 2 days ago 97.20% 97.4% 2.60% 3.7% yesterday 96.80% 97.4% 2.60% 2.7% today 96.85% 97.5% 2.60% 3.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.55%, Kalshi 79.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 81% · Gina Hinojosa 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$195K83.5%Kalshi384K contracts · 79%/80%79.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-0.9ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$166K17%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 20%/21%23%venue gap6.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.50% 79.0% 17.0% 23.0% 6 days ago 84.15% 80.0% 15.5% 22.0% 5 days ago 81.05% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 78.85% 79.0% 20.5% 23.0% 3 days ago 82.65% 78.0% 17.5% 24.0% 2 days ago 82.55% 82.0% 17.5% 21.0% yesterday 82.55% 80.0% 17.5% 21.0% today 82.55% 79.5% 17.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 80% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$359K85.5%Kalshi491K contracts · 79%/80%84.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-4.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$342K14.5%Kalshi792K contracts · 20%/21%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 85.5% 82.0% 14.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 84.0% 19.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 20.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 21.0% today 81.5% 79.5% 18.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
A transcript of the opponents' call quotes an organizer saying the goal is "to stop this bill, not to make it better."
The House Blue Dog Coalition, a group of 10 moderate Democrats, endorsed the Senate's bipartisan permitting bill, which would speed federal approval of power lines, pipelines and other energy projects.
The endorsement. "Congress must clear the logjam and move permitting reform forward, not punt the issue to a future Congress," the coalition wrote.
The opposition. Environmental groups held a call to recruit undecided Democrats against the bill, according to a transcript Punchbowl News reporter Josh Siegel obtained.
The data-center fight. Opponents call the bill a giveaway to data centers. Permitting advocate Thomas Hochman says the opposite: "This bill would enact far stricter, costlier rules for data centers in particular." Utility critic David Pomerantz says it means "more grid investment" but "structurally less control for the monopoly utilities."
How the last four permitting pushes ended
- 2005: Congress let FERC override states that stall on power lines; a federal appeals court gutted that power in 2009, and FERC has never used it
- 2022: Joe Manchin's permitting deal was stripped from a September funding bill after it could not reach 60 votes
- 2024: The Barrasso-Manchin bill cleared committee 15-4 and died with no floor vote
