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Ongoing9 earlier updates23 days

This story has run 10 times over 23 days, starting Sep 11.

  1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
  2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
  3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
  4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
  5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
  6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
  7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
  8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
  9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
  10. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data — this issue
BLOOMBERG

Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data

Inflation and the Fed
Political Guyentist · October 4, 20261 min read

BLOOMBERG

Traders no longer expect the Fed or the ECB to follow September's rate hikes with another this month. The shift came after US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected 90,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%.

Trump opposes the rate hikes. The Fed raised rates in September anyway.

What we’re less sure of1 of 5 claims