NYT/Siena polls: Democrats lead Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, tie in Kansas

2026 midterms

Political Guyentist · October 4, 20261 min read

Trump's approval in five states he won by 11 to 16 points in 2024 now averages 40%. That is down 5 points since June. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to take the Senate.

Race by raceLeads: James Talarico (D-TX) +6 over Ken Paxton (R-TX); Mary Peltola (D-AK) +7 over Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska); Sherrod Brown…3 details

Leads: James Talarico (D-TX) +6 over Ken Paxton (R-TX); Mary Peltola (D-AK) +7 over Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska); Sherrod Brown (D-OH) +3 over Jon Husted (Sen-R Ohio).
Kansas is tied between Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) and Adam Hamilton (D-KS); outlets disagree on Iowa, with The Hill showing the Republican up 1 and the Washington Examiner showing Josh Turek (D-IA) up 1.
Only 27% of independents across the five states approve of Trump; 71% disapprove.

What we’re less sure of3 of 7 claims

Medium
Outlets disagree on Iowa: The Hill shows the Republican up 1, while the Washington Examiner shows Josh Turek (D-IA) up 1.
The story credits each figure to a named outlet, but the two reports of the same poll conflict. Polling averages are also split: RCP has Hinson +0.7, while 270toWin and Pollsmax have Turek ahead. The story leaves the Republican candidate unnamed.
Medium
Trump's approval in the five states now averages 40%, down 5 points since June.
The sentence is not tied to a source. The 40% figure probably comes from the Siena release. No listed source documents the June baseline or the 5-point decline, so the trend is partly inferred.
Medium
Only 27% of independents across the five states approve of Trump; 71% disapprove.
Ron Brownstein's state-level figures (23% AK/KS, 28% OH, 29% TX, 30% IA) are consistent with an average of about 27% approval. No listed source states the 71% disapproval figure, and the story does not attribute either number.