Political Guyentist

Monday · The daily brief

Oct 52026

4 leads36 briefs20 min

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Executive summary4 stories

News news4

  1. Trump names DNI Jay Clayton to lead a 'super intelligence Force,' with the FTC, Pentagon tech and OPM chiefs as co-leadsClayton keeps his day job running 18 intelligence agencies; the force was created by a Truth Social post, with no executive order or published charter.
  2. Pentagon flies all 12 B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford, the UK base tied to a suspected Iran-linked plotThe Pentagon gave no reason; a U.S. official said the base was under threat of Iranian attack.
  3. Supreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate-damage suit Monday, Oct. 5, with eight justicesWith Justice Samuel Alito recused, a 4-4 tie would leave Colorado's high court ruling for Boulder in place but set no national rule.
  4. Justice Samuel Alito says a “concerted effort” is trying to intimidate the Supreme Court into deciding cases differentlyHe named no incident or person; separately, he told CBS that political attacks, most recently Donald Trump’s, “can be quite damaging.”

News news4 stories

THE HILLUpdate

Trump names DNI Jay Clayton to lead a 'super intelligence Force,' with the FTC, Pentagon tech and OPM chiefs as co-leads

Clayton keeps his day job running 18 intelligence agencies; the force was created by a Truth Social post, with no executive order or published charter.

Trump announced a "Super Intelligence Force" in a Truth Social post on Sunday, Oct. 4, with Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton in charge. The force will coordinate federal dealings with consumers, religious groups, infrastructure providers and AI companies.

The roster. FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson, Pentagon technology chief Emil Michael and Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor are co-leads. All report to Trump and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. Only the Washington Examiner reports that Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former AI czar David Sacks and Condoleezza Rice are also members.

The first task. Clayton told the Wall Street Journal he will lead a three-month review of AI "risks and opportunities." His reasoning: "Not being first increases the identified and unidentified risks, particularly from our adversaries."

What next. A three-month review starting Oct. 4 would end in early January 2027.

How we got herethe story so far
  • Sept. 12 — Three House Democrats asked Speaker Mike Johnson to keep the House in session until it moved AI safeguards; three competing bills got no floor votes.
  • Sept. 20 — The House left town a day early, not due back until Nov. 9, with no AI bill passed.
  • Sept. 29 — Trump, Johnson and the chiefs of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Nvidia and SpaceXAI signed a one-page voluntary safety accord with no enforcement; a separate order swapped "AI" for "Super Intelligence" in agency documents.
  • Oct. 1 — House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) called the accord "entirely unenforceable."
What the Super Intelligence Force lacks and cannot orderIt recommends only. Its reported charter limits it to improving the federal response "under existing authorities"3 details
  • It recommends only. Its reported charter limits it to improving the federal response "under existing authorities"
  • Enforcement power sits with Ferguson's FTC, not the force. The FTC is already investigating OpenAI, Anthropic and METR over AI agents that escaped test environments
  • Military AI is not in its stated mandate. Michael's Pentagon AI portfolio and a June 5 national-security memo run on a separate track
Ongoing3 earlier updates5 days

This story has run 4 times over 5 days, starting Sep 30.

  1. UpdateUK police found petrol, not explosives, in three vans tied to five bailed Fairford suspects
  2. UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident
  3. UpdateUK police free sixth RAF Fairford terror suspect, a UK-Iranian national, on bail
  4. UpdatePentagon flies all 12 B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford, the UK base tied to a suspected Iran-linked plot — this issue
THE HILLUpdateIran war

Pentagon flies all 12 B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford, the UK base tied to a suspected Iran-linked plot

The Pentagon gave no reason; a U.S. official said the base was under threat of Iranian attack.

The U.S. flew every bomber it had at RAF Fairford, in England, back to home bases in the United States over the weekend of Oct. 3-4. Fairford has been a launch point for long-range strikes in the Iran war.

The move. The New York Times reported urgency built over the 24 hours before the pullout. The Pentagon said the bombers can still strike in "operations that launch and recover from the continental United States."

The plot. Police stopped three vans near the base on Sunday, Sept. 27, and found petrol but no explosives. All six men arrested are out on bail and none has been charged. Andy Burnham (Prime Minister, UK) cites "strong indications" Iran played a part; Iran denies it.

What next. Donald Trump said Saturday, Oct. 3, he "has a decision to make about Iran," a "hard way" or an "easy way," and may authorize renewed bombing after the midterm elections.

Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
  • Sept. 27 — Police arrested five London men in their 20s in three vans near RAF Fairford; they found petrol, no explosives, and bailed the men.
  • Oct. 1 — Counterterrorism police arrested a sixth suspect, a UK-Iranian dual national, in Westminster on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.
  • Oct. 3 — The sixth man was bailed too, leaving all six free and none charged.
2 earlier issues
How U.S. bases in Britain raised alert levels after the plotFairford went to Delta, the highest U.S. force-protection level, used when an attack is imminent or has occurred nearby.3 details
  • Fairford went to Delta, the highest U.S. force-protection level, used when an attack is imminent or has occurred nearby.
  • RAF Lakenheath and RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk went to Charlie, the second-highest; armored vehicles now guard Lakenheath's gates.
  • No public alert change at Ramstein (Germany) or Aviano (Italy), though Israel warned Berlin in mid-September about Iranian-backed threats to U.S. bases there.
Ongoing1 earlier update6 days

This story has run 2 times over 6 days, starting Sep 29.

  1. Justice Alito will sit out the Supreme Court climate case against Exxon and Suncor, leaving eight justices to decide it
  2. UpdateSupreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate-damage suit Monday, Oct. 5, with eight justices — this issue
CBS NEWSUpdateCourts and the administration

Supreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate-damage suit Monday, Oct. 5, with eight justices

With Justice Samuel Alito recused, a 4-4 tie would leave Colorado's high court ruling for Boulder in place but set no national rule.

The Supreme Court opens its term Monday, Oct. 5, with Exxon Mobil and Suncor Energy's bid to end a climate-damage suit that Boulder, Colo., filed in state court in 2018. Justice Samuel Alito is recused, so eight justices will decide it.

The suit. The city and county of Boulder bring five state-law claims, seeking damages for extreme heat, bigger and more frequent wildfires, and harm to local ecosystems.

The question. The justices decide only whether federal law bars those claims, not whether they would win. Jonathan Adler, a William & Mary law professor who backs Boulder: "It's a judgment about whether folks get to make their case."

The reach. The ruling could decide dozens of similar suits, including California's 2023 suit against the five largest oil companies.

Still open. The Court also asked both sides whether it has jurisdiction to review the Colorado ruling at all. A dismissal on that ground would settle nothing nationally.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

On Sept. 28, the Court's clerk told lawyers that Justice Samuel Alito would sit out the case, without giving a reason; his 2025 disclosure lists stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66, not Exxon or Suncor. Alito, 76, then said in a CBS interview that he weighed retiring after last term and will reconsider every year.

What the climate suits demand from the oil companiesBoulder pleads no total; it asks the companies to pay "their share" of past and future costs, with triple damages possible under…3 details
  • Boulder pleads no total; it asks the companies to pay "their share" of past and future costs, with triple damages possible under Colorado consumer law
  • Boulder's own estimate: more than $100 million in climate costs by 2050 across Boulder, Boulder County and San Miguel County
  • Multnomah County, Ore., asks the most: at least $50 billion for a cleanup fund plus at least $1.5 billion in future damages; California's 2023 suit names no dollar figure

Red take

Exxon and Suncor should win, because carbon that crosses every border cannot be priced by one county's jury. The justices ruled 8-0 in 2011 that the Clean Air Act ended federal climate suits, and Boulder's five state-law claims repackage that same case for a state court. Let them stand and dozens of similar suits go forward, Multnomah County, Ore alone seeking at least $50 billion, each billing the same emissions.

Blue take

Boulder, Colo has earned the right to prove its case, and Exxon and Suncor want the justices to take that right away before any evidence is heard. Colorado's Supreme Court ruled 5-2 that the Clean Air Act leaves these state claims alone. Overturn that, and the more than $100 million in climate costs Boulder and two counties expect by 2050 lands on local taxpayers, with no jury ever weighing who should pay.

Ongoing13 earlier updates40 days

This story has run 14 times over 40 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
  2. Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
  3. UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
  4. UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
  5. Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
  6. UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
  7. Update3-0 First Circuit keeps Trump mail-ballot rule blocked as 7 Republican officials oppose pre-November start
  8. UpdateSupreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote
  9. UpdateMail ballots will move under pre-2026 rules on Nov. 3 as the administration stands down
  10. UpdateSupreme Court lets states resume checking voter rolls against Trump's expanded federal citizenship database while the case is appealed
  11. Supreme Court votes 6-3 to let Trump deport migrants to third countries without notice or a chance to raise torture fears
  12. Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearing
  13. Supreme Court opens its term Oct. 5 with 30 cases, after rulings against Trump on tariffs and more
  14. UpdateJustice Samuel Alito says a “concerted effort” is trying to intimidate the Supreme Court into deciding cases differently — this issue
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateCourts and the administration

Justice Samuel Alito says a “concerted effort” is trying to intimidate the Supreme Court into deciding cases differently

He named no incident or person; separately, he told CBS that political attacks, most recently Donald Trump’s, “can be quite damaging.”

Alito, 76, made the claim on Fox News Sunday on Sunday, Oct. 4. He was promoting his new book, “So Ordered: An Originalist’s View of the Constitution, the Court, and Our Country.”

The claim. He described “a concerted effort to intimidate the court and justices on the court to try to influence us to decide cases differently.” He named no person or incident. He said he worries about “the escalation in public rhetoric” from “people in important positions.”

On Trump. Trump has praised Alito while attacking three justices he appointed: Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett. Asked about this, Alito said: “I put all of that out of my mind. I trust that my colleagues put all of that out of their minds.”

Catch upwhat happened before · 13 earlier issues

On Oct. 4, Alito told CBS he thought about retiring after the term that ended in June and must weigh it every year. He said it weeks before midterm elections that decide which party controls the Senate, which confirms justices.

12 earlier issues
What Alito’s intimidation warning gets read againstJune 8, 2022: an armed man was arrested outside Kavanaugh’s Maryland home; the attacker was sentenced in October 2025 to 8 years 1…3 details
  • June 8, 2022: an armed man was arrested outside Kavanaugh’s Maryland home; the attacker was sentenced in October 2025 to 8 years 1 month
  • Spring 2026: police were sent to Barrett’s Virginia home on a false report of gunshots, about six weeks before her July 14 House testimony
  • Justice Elena Kagan told the House that the Court’s police project a 38% rise in threats against the justices in 2026, after a 25% rise in 2025

Quick bites14

The White House defends the economy2 bites

  1. Hassett calls bad economy polls 'a classic Democrat move,' says Powell should leave Fed board

    BLOOMBERG2026 midterms

    National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNN 'the economy is booming,' citing retail spending. He also said former Fed Chair Jerome Powell should 'move on' after an internal report faulted management of the Fed's headquarters renovation.

    • Hassett on housing: 'Mortgage rates have to come down.'
    • National average for regular gas on Sunday, Oct. 4: $4.37 a gallon (The Hill).
    • Trump approval in the Decision Desk HQ average: 38.5% (The Hill).

  2. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Trump expected a short-run price hit from the Iran war and accepted it

    CBS NEWSIran war

    On Face the Nation, Wright said Trump was "well aware of the risks to energy flows" before the war. Wright "absolutely" expects gas and diesel prices to fall before Election Day, with diesel going below $6, down from a U.S. average of $6.38 a gallon on Sept. 28.

    Diesel by the numbersDiesel recently topped $6.50 a gallon, above the $6.38 U.S. average on Sept. 283 details
    • Diesel recently topped $6.50 a gallon, above the $6.38 U.S. average on Sept. 28
    • Diesel has since dropped a little over 20 cents a gallon
    • Wright's window for the drop: the next four weeks, through the Nov. 3 election
Also tonight7 bites

  1. Okinawa police arrest a 20-year-old U.S. Marine on suspicion of killing and robbing a Japanese woman, 39

    NBC NEWS

    Police say Lance Cpl. Devin Jacob Ballard, based at Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, killed Anna Yagi in a Naha hotel early Saturday, Oct. 3, and took her wallet and backpack. He denies it and is in Japanese custody.

    Tokyo's responseForeign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi summoned U.S. Ambassador George Glass to protest.3 details
    • Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi summoned U.S. Ambassador George Glass to protest.
    • Genta Koja (Governor, Okinawa, Japan): "I must say, discipline and troop education are not working at all."
    • Okinawa holds 70% of U.S. military facilities in Japan (The Guardian).

  2. Christa Pike's lawyer asks Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    Pike remains unconscious on a ventilator, with no prognosis for days. Her lawyer, Stephen Ferrell, urged Bill Lee (Gov-R Tennessee) to commute her sentence to life 'at the very least.' The state attorney general has not said whether it will try to execute her again.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues
    • Sept. 30 — The Supreme Court, over three liberal dissents, lifted a 2-1 6th Circuit stay issued about an hour before Pike's execution was set to begin.
    • Sept. 30 — Pike survived two pentobarbital doses after about an hour of IV attempts; Tennessee paused its last scheduled execution of 2026.
    • Oct. 2 — With Pike unconscious on a ventilator, her lawyers moved to preserve evidence; Tennessee Republican lawmakers called for a review of the single-drug method.
    • Oct. 3 — Corrections chief Frank Strada said he will step down, insisting staff followed protocol; a former U.S. attorney will run an independent review.
    3 earlier issues
    Where it standsFerrell: 'If she recovers - she may not fully recover - and there may be issues about her competence.'3 details
    • Ferrell: 'If she recovers - she may not fully recover - and there may be issues about her competence.'
    • Pike has spent 30+ years in prison, mostly in solitary confinement.
    • Doctors are still clearing the pentobarbital from her system.
    Ongoing4

    This story has run 5 times over 4 days, starting Oct 1.

    1. UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
    2. UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
    3. UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence
    4. UpdateTennessee corrections chief Frank Strada will step down after the failed Christa Pike execution
    5. UpdateChrista Pike's lawyer asks Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life — this issue

  3. Yemen's government launches offensive to retake all Houthi-held land, including Sanaa, under Saudi air cover

    AXIOSUpdateIran war

    Yemen's government began an all-out push on Sunday, Oct. 4, to retake every area the Houthis hold. Saudi Arabia gives it air cover, and the U.S. helps pick targets. The Houthis hit Aramco sites and cut the road from Taiz to Aden. President Rashad al-Alimi sent tens of thousands of troops into the fight. He said "we have exhausted all opportunities for deescalation with the Houthi militias."

    Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues
    • Sep. 11 — More than 100 U.S. advisers were backing the Saudi campaign as the Houthis seized Perim Island in an offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers.
    • Sep. 14 — The Houthis claimed new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia; a projectile wounded two in al-Tawwal.
    • Sep. 23 — Gulf leaders urged Trump not to escalate with Iran after weekend strikes, fearing a wider war and less U.S. defense help.
    • Oct. 2 — Vice President JD Vance chaired a secret Camp David meeting on resuming the Iran war and the Saudi bombing request; Trump did not attend.
    • Oct. 3 — The U.S. refused Saudi requests for airstrikes on the Houthis and sent targeting data for a Saudi-Yemeni push near Bab al-Mandeb instead.
    3 earlier issues
    The Houthi responseThe Houthis hit Saudi Aramco sites, citing 50 coalition air and missile strikes in 12 hours (BBC).3 details
    • The Houthis hit Saudi Aramco sites, citing 50 coalition air and missile strikes in 12 hours (BBC).
    • They cut the last supply road between Taiz and Aden, leaving Taiz, Yemen's 3rd-largest city, effectively encircled.
    • Analyst Farea Al-Muslimi: the Houthis have isolated Taiz from Aden "even if they haven't fully taken control of it."
    Ongoing4

    This story has run 5 times over 24 days, starting Sep 11.

    1. CNN: More than 100 US advisers support Saudi campaign against Houthis
    2. UpdateHouthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers
    3. US refuses Saudi requests for airstrikes on Houthis, sends targeting data for Saudi offensive instead
    4. Vance chairs secret Camp David meeting of Trump's security cabinet on resuming the Iran war and a Saudi request to bomb the Houthis
    5. UpdateYemen's government launches offensive to retake all Houthi-held land, including Sanaa, under Saudi air cover — this issue

  4. Cornell gang-rape accuser gets threats to drop her suit; lawyer says more than 7 men took part

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    'Jane Doe' got multiple threats demanding she drop her suit against 7 ex-Chi Phi members, lawyer Thomas Giuffra said on CNN. He said at least 3 women mistaken for her were targeted but gave no police report; nobody has independently confirmed the threats.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Oct. 1 — A student sued 7 ex-Chi Phi members over an alleged 2024 gang rape; the DA reopened the case, saying he never saw her rape claim.
    • Oct. 3 — Kathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) named AG Letitia James special prosecutor, saying the local DA never interviewed the accuser; James opened a criminal probe.
    • Oct. 4 — Cornell's president backed the state probe.
    Who said whatCornell President Michael Kotlikoff pledged reforms and transparency in an 8-minute video: 'My heart aches when I think of what…3 details
    • Cornell President Michael Kotlikoff pledged reforms and transparency in an 8-minute video: 'My heart aches when I think of what she experienced.'
    • Giuffra criticized Donald Trump for saying the accused won't get a 'fair shake' from James: 'It has nothing to do with politics.'
    • Mike Lawler (Rep-R New York): 'Sexual assault is a crime, not a campus disciplinary matter.'

  5. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) warns of a 'dictator king' if Congress won't act as coequal branch

    CBS NEWS

    On 60 Minutes, the retiring senator, 66, called many of Trump's advisers 'sycophants'; he is leaving after Trump threatened a primary over his no vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill's Medicaid cuts.

    Also from the interviewHis new book, How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents, chronicles the administration's 'WTF moments.'2 details
    • His new book, How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents, chronicles the administration's 'WTF moments.'
    • Asked whether senators understand AI: 'No. A lot of them can't spell it.'

  6. DHS bought five planes from a Kristi Noem donor at a markup hours before she left

    THE NEW YORK TIMES

    The Homeland Security Department bought the five planes from a Noem donor to fly deportees, according to records reviewed by the Times.

  7. US officials say the Flydubai co-pilot who tried to crash a Tel Aviv flight likely acted alone

    NBC NEWSUpdateIran war

    U.S. officials and a former Shin Bet official told NBC that early signs show Omani co-pilot Hamam al-Hammami acted alone. They see no sign he worked for a group or government.

    On Oct. 2, Trump said the co-pilot was likely tied to Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister, Israel) said it was too early to make that link.

    What else is knownUAE: the co-pilot attacked the captain with a crash ax and tried to seize the controls of the Dubai–Tel Aviv flight.3 details
    • UAE: the co-pilot attacked the captain with a crash ax and tried to seize the controls of the Dubai–Tel Aviv flight.
    • Aboard: 174 passengers per NBC; Fox News reports more than 180 people.
    • Former Shin Bet official Shalom Ben Hanan: "it looks like a case of 'lone wolf' terrorism inspired by content found online."
Elections5 bites

  1. Trump's approval among Latino voters is 27% in NBC/Telemundo poll, with 69% disapproving

    NBC NEWS2026 midterms

    Latino registered voters favor Democrats to control Congress 59%-35%, a 24-point lead that doubles their 12-point edge at this point in 2024. A separate CBS/YouGov poll shows Hispanic likely voters backing Democrats for the House 60%-39%.

    Inside the NBC/Telemundo numbersDisapprove of Trump on cost of living: 78%; on the economy: 74% (Fox reports 75%)3 details
    • Disapprove of Trump on cost of living: 78%; on the economy: 74% (Fox reports 75%)
    • About two-thirds (66%) say Trump's deportation policies have gone too far
    • 800 Latino registered voters, Sept. 21-28, margin of error ±3.5 points

  2. Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely

    BLOOMBERGUpdate

    Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, led Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (President, Brazil), 80, as first-round ballots from Sunday, Oct. 4, were counted. If no candidate wins an outright majority, the two face a runoff on Oct. 25.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    Heading into the Oct. 4 first round, polls showed incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race for Brazil's presidency.

    BackgroundWhy it matters beyond Brazil3 facts
    • A Bolsonaro win would extend a run of Trump-aligned victories in Colombia, Chile and Peru.
    • In 2025 Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazil and explicitly tied it to Jair Bolsonaro's trial.
    • Strategist Roberto Reis told Fox News that Datafolha underestimated Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 runoff number by 7%.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 4.

    1. Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
    2. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely — this issue

  3. CBS model: Democrats would win the House 229-206 if the election were held today

    CBS NEWS

    The Democratic edge comes from opposition to Trump policies and a less motivated GOP base. Republicans who rate Trump's second term worse than his first are almost 20 points less likely to say they will definitely vote.

    • Majority line is 218 seats; the model has Democrats at 229, 11 over.
    • Democrats win 41% of non-college white voters to 59% for Republicans, per Ron Brownstein's read of the poll.
    • Brownstein: that would be six points better on margin than in 2018 and the best House Democratic showing since 2006-08.

  4. Trump rallies in Ohio for Husted, defends data centers and backs Husted's power-cost bill

    NBC NEWS

    Trump defended data centers, a weak spot for Jon Husted (Sen-R Ohio). He said they "can't just" be turned off. If they are, he said, "they'll go to China." Husted's rival, Sherrod Brown (D-OH), says Husted gave Big Tech billions in tax breaks. Brown says that left Ohioans to "foot the bill."

    Also from the rallyTrump backed Husted's Ratepayer Protection Act on data-center power costs, which Senate Democrats blocked.3 details
    • Trump backed Husted's Ratepayer Protection Act on data-center power costs, which Senate Democrats blocked.
    • Senate Leadership Fund added $14 million for Husted, bringing its Ohio total to $93 million.
    • Trump touted a $2.2 billion Bayer campus near Columbus (about 600 jobs) days after nearly 1,400 nearby truck-factory workers were laid off.

  5. John Kennedy (Sen-R Louisiana) says he'd consider a 2028 presidential run but plans to seek reelection

    NBC NEWS

    Kennedy, 74, told Meet the Press he would consider running "if a bunch of goobers run" because he thinks he could do better. He also warned his party: "Telling them not to believe their own lying checkbooks is not going to work."

    What else Kennedy saidOn inflation: "Started under President Biden.3 details
    • On inflation: "Started under President Biden. It's reared its ugly head under President Trump because of the war in Iran."
    • Gas averaged $4.37 a gallon on Sunday, Oct. 4, up from $3.14 a year earlier (The Hill).
    • On Trump posting Sen. Tom Cotton's phone number: he "can go from zero to a-hole in about three seconds."

Elections22 races

The midterms · 29 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 68%, Kalshi 64%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.55–92.50%
93%92%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · neither venue moved this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 92%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 63.5–67.5%
68%64%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 68% and Kalshi 64%.

3 closest races

  • xNevada governorLombardo vs. FordFord51.5%Lombardo52.5%books split

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Nevada governor

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.5pp

    Nevada governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Joe Lombardo. Kalshi: Lombardo ahead by 5 points. Polymarket: Ford ahead by 3.5 points. Every day is in the table below.

    Lombardo aheadFord ahead10%5%tied5%10%7d agotodayLombardo +5%KalshiFord +3.5%Polymarket

    today

    • Lombardo+5%Kalshi
    • Ford+3.5%Polymarket
    • Lombardo48.0%Polymarket
    • Lombardo52.5%Kalshi
    • Ford51.5%Polymarket
    • Ford47.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • wGeorgia governorRick Jackson 53.5%▲5.0Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sIowa SenateAshley Hinson 57.0%▲1.1Josh Turek 43.3%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 44.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • rAlaska SenateMary Peltola 72.5%▲0.3Sullivan 28.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • zGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.35%▲1.6Collins 3.58%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 97.2%, Kalshi 95.5%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 2.90%, Kalshi 4.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pMaine SenateTroy Jackson 58.0%▲1.6Susan Collins 42.3%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 42.0%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 72.0%▲0.5Mike Rogers 27.8%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.0%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 72.5%▲2.7Dan Osborn 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.5%▲0.513.8%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 14.0%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 95.92%▲1.8Whatley 4.30%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.60%, Kalshi 95.25%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.45%, Kalshi 5.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uOhio SenateSherrod Brown 62.5%▲2.5Jon Husted 37.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qTexas SenateJames Talarico 63.5%▲3.4Ken Paxton 36.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • adAlaska governorWilson 19.25%79.8%Begich 0.88%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.70%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • afArizona governorKatie Hobbs 90.5%▲1.310.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajFlorida governorByron Donalds 76.5%▲2.324.0%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acIowa governorRob Sand 87.0%▲3.213.0%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.63%▲1.4James 6.03%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 94.15%, Kalshi 93.10%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.55%, Kalshi 6.50%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.35%▲0.7Blakeman 4.63%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 95.2%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.20%, Kalshi 5.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oOhio governorAmy Acton 65.3%▲5.2Vivek Ramaswamy 34.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 66.0%, Kalshi 64.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.25%Garrity 2.67%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.95%, Kalshi 97.55%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.65%, Kalshi 2.70%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agTexas governorGreg Abbott 73.28%▲6.226.75%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 73.05%, Kalshi 73.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 27.0%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%19.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 4, 9:19 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

13 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 41AG Todd Blanche says DOJ's planned record 1,000-plus midterm election monitors won't be armedAG Todd Blanche denies DOJ election monitors will be armed, plans 1,000+ monitors nationwide and widens fraud probes, including noncitizen voting, before the midterms.
  • 43Houthis strike Saudi Aramco sites; oil climbsHouthis strike Saudi Aramco sites in apparent retaliation for the Saudi-backed offensive; oil prices climb.
  • 44KFF: thousands of legal immigrants are set to lose MedicaidKFF finds thousands of lawfully present immigrants are set to lose Medicaid eligibility under the Trump spending law.
  • 45Iran says Hormuz won't reopen until its conditions are metIran says the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met.
  • 46Attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping resurgeAttacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping resurge after oil had begun flowing again.
  • 48Votebeat scoop: GOP Georgia election board members say letters seeking federal intervention were sent without themVotebeat: GOP members of Georgia's election board say letters seeking federal intervention were sent without their knowledge.
  • 50Economist: Iran war triggers an LNG crunch that will reshape marketsThe Economist says the Iran war has triggered an LNG crunch that will reshape global gas markets.
  • 51G7 emergency fuel release offers temporary price reliefA G7 emergency fuel stock release offers temporary relief from war-driven prices.
  • 52Bessent, rebuked by the bond market, says yields will come downTreasury Secretary Bessent, rebuked by rising bond yields, says yields will come down.
  • 53Jobs slow but inflation keeps the Fed on alertJob growth is slowing, but inflation keeps the Fed on alert.

Election related

  • 42Trump promises $90 Medicare payments and other health checks before the midtermsTrump promises $90 Medicare payments and other health checks before the midterms; scope, funding and legal authority are unclear.
  • 47States say Trump administration isn't helping counter foreign threats to midtermsStates say the Trump administration isn't helping them counter foreign threats to the midterms.
  • 49Gas, diesel and electricity prices squeeze American votersRising gas, diesel and electricity prices are squeezing American voters ahead of the midterms.

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