Gross federal debt passes $40 trillion, above CBO's $39.4 trillion forecast for the end of fiscal 2026

What we’re less sure of6 of 8 claims

• Medium

  In February, CBO projected gross debt of $39.4 trillion by the end of fiscal 2026 on Sept. 30.

  The story attributes the projection to CBO, but SOURCES include no CBO document, so the figure reaches the story only through Reason's reporting.

• Medium

  The fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ran a deficit of about $2 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP.

  The story explicitly labels this a preliminary Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimate. Reason's deficit article corroborates it.

• Medium

  Interest on the debt cost a record $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2026, or 3.4% of GDP, more than the government spent on defense or on Medicare.

  These are plausible preliminary year-end figures that likely come from the CRFB and Reason deficit pieces. The story assigns no source to the number or to the defense/Medicare comparison.

• Medium

  CBO projects gross debt reaching $43.3 trillion by the end of 2028.

  This is a forecast the story attributes to CBO. No CBO document appears in SOURCES.

• Low

  Federal debt reached 122% of GDP in 2025, above the 106% peak of debt held by the public in 1946.

  This is the desk's own unattributed comparison, and it is apples-to-oranges. It sets gross debt against the 1946 peak for debt held by the public. On a like-for-like basis, the story's own figure for debt held by the public is about 100% of GDP, which is below 106%.

• Medium

  CBO estimated Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 adds $4.7 trillion to deficits through 2035.

  The figure is attributed to CBO, but no CBO source is listed. It also does not match commonly reported CBO scores of about $3.4 trillion without interest or about $4.1 trillion with interest, so it needs verification.