News news3 stories
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 6.
- US monitors suspected pneumonic plague death of a 28-year-old Siberian lab worker; Trump offers Russia help
- UpdateTrump says he will call Putin about a Siberian plague-lab worker's death; Russia says tests have not linked it to plague — this issue
Washington is preparing a formal request for information, and the State Department reissued its Level 4 do-not-travel warning for Russia.
Daria Shipilova, 28, a worker at a Siberian anti-plague institute, died of what Russia officially calls pneumonia of unknown cause. Russian authorities say tests have not linked her death to plague.
Russia's response. About 200 people are under quarantine or medical watch, and at least five hospitals remain quarantined. Testing of her contacts found two Covid cases and one rhinovirus case, and no plague.
The U.S. response. Washington first contacted Moscow as early as Friday, Oct. 2, and is now preparing a formal request for information. The CDC says there is no sign of a broader threat to the United States. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Iceland, said: "Maybe, you know, there's nothing there. Maybe it's bigger than we thought. We don't know."
Still open. What pathogen killed her, and whether anything escaped the lab.
Catch up
By Oct. 6, a 28-year-old worker at an anti-plague institute in Siberia had died. Russia called the cause pneumonia of undetermined origin. It quarantined a hospital and put nearly 200 contacts under watch. Trump offered U.S. help.
What the U.S. would add if Washington escalates
- Next step: a CDC travel health notice for Russia, on top of the State Department's Level 4 warning
- Then: Customs and Border Protection rules for screening sick travelers at U.S. entry points
- The playbook comes from David Mansdoerfer, a former Trump health official, who calls it "very well defined"
The FCC ordered the review in April 2026, though the licenses were not due for renewal until 2028–2031.
ABC asked U.S. District Judge Loren AliKhan on Tuesday, Oct. 6, for a preliminary injunction (a court order that freezes an action while the lawsuit is decided) to stop the Federal Communications Commission's early review of its eight station licenses. She heard about two hours of argument and did not rule.
ABC's case. The network calls the review unconstitutional retaliation that is already chilling its midterm coverage. Its lawyer, Beth Wilkinson, said ABC has its "head on the guillotine," left to wonder "if anything we say is going to make it come down."
The government's case. Justice Department lawyers said the review stems from Disney's alleged failure to cooperate with an investigation of its diversity hiring (DEI) practices, and that this court has no power to hear the case.
The judge. AliKhan pressed DOJ: "What is it that made this so different that you needed to call for an early license renewal?"
What next. The government's supplemental brief is due Oct. 9 and ABC's is due Oct. 14; a decision is not expected before mid-October.
- That it committed no serious violations of FCC rules
Red take
Judge Loren AliKhan should leave the FCC's review alone, because ABC loses nothing while it runs: all eight licenses stay valid. The Justice Department says the April 2026 order grew out of Disney stalling a probe of its diversity hiring. Freeze it now, and any company that ducks its regulator learns that a lawsuit buys delay.
Blue take
Hauling eight ABC stations in to defend licenses not due until 2028–2031 is a threat, and it should be stopped before the midterms. Judge Loren AliKhan asked the Justice Department what made this case "so different." Its answer was a hiring dispute with Disney. Every week the review runs, ABC's reporters weigh each story against their licenses, and voters get news shaped by fear of the FCC.
Ongoing5 earlier updates7 days
This story has run 6 times over 7 days, starting Sep 30.
- UpdateUK police found petrol, not explosives, in three vans tied to five bailed Fairford suspects
- UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident
- UpdateUK police free sixth RAF Fairford terror suspect, a UK-Iranian national, on bail
- UpdatePentagon flies all 12 B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford, the UK base tied to a suspected Iran-linked plot
- UpdateTrump says threats drove all 12 B-1 bombers out of a UK base, hours after Rubio called it a routine rotation
- UpdateUK police arrest a seventh RAF Fairford suspect, a 22-year-old British man, on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts — this issue
The six earlier suspects remain out on bail, and all 12 U.S. B-1 bombers pulled from the base are now back in the United States.
British counterterrorism police arrested a 22-year-old British man in Westminster on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. The case is a suspected plot against RAF Fairford, a base 100 miles west of London that U.S. bombers use to strike Iran. Police said the arrest came out of the ongoing investigation, not the first-day sweep.
The six before him. British police have released every earlier suspect on bail, none of them charged: the five men arrested near the base on Sunday, Sept. 27, within days, and the sixth, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Trump said of the first bail decision, "I wouldn't have done that." Andy Burnham (Prime Minister, UK) said Britain sees "strong indications" Iran played a part.
Still open. Officials have not said what ties any suspect to Iran or to a drone plan.
Catch up
- Sept. 27–30 — An incident at RAF Fairford led to five arrests. Police found gasoline in three vans and no explosives, then bailed all five.
- Oct. 1 — Police arrested a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, in Westminster.
- Oct. 3 — He was released on bail, which left all six suspects free.
- Oct. 4 — The Pentagon flew all 12 B-1 bombers out of Fairford without giving a reason.
- Oct. 5 — Trump said threats drove the move, hours after Rubio called it a routine rotation. U.S. officials described an Iranian drone plot to kill American pilots.
4 earlier issues
- UpdateUK police found petrol, not explosives, in three vans tied to five bailed Fairford suspects
- UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident
- UpdateUK police free sixth RAF Fairford terror suspect, a UK-Iranian national, on bail
- UpdatePentagon flies all 12 B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford, the UK base tied to a suspected Iran-linked plot
Quick bites15
Ex-CIA official David Rush pleads guilty to $194M fraud and admits exposing a secret source
CBS NEWSRush pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud for faking classified programs that steered $145 million into four Palm Beach and Hobe Sound homes and 298 gold bars. He forfeits about $194 million and faces up to 20 years at sentencing Jan. 28.
The plea filing
- Per the plea filing, Rush "effectively acted as his own approving official."
- The 298 gold bars seized from his Ashburn, Va., home cost the government $40 million to $46 million, depending on the outlet.
- Plea papers show he gave a foreign official descriptive information about a US clandestine human source.
DOJ filed 40 cases to strip citizenship from naturalized citizens convicted of crimes since Aug. 21
AXIOSThe Justice Department filed the 40 cases in federal courts between Aug. 21 and Oct. 2 and has set a goal of 250 cases this month, about twice the roughly 120 people denaturalized from 2017 to late 2025.
Key figures and claims
- Assistant AG Brett Shumate: "Every single one of these individuals lied their way into U.S. citizenship."
- DOJ had identified 384 foreign-born citizens for possible revocation, the NYT reported in April.
Feds charge Washington man with aiding Canada's Tumbler Ridge school shooter, who killed 8
NBC NEWSProsecutors allege James Cody Bryant, 30, of Bellingham, Wash gave the shooter advice and money, offered to livestream the Feb. 10 attack, and never alerted police.
From the charging case
- How they met: on Omegle, about 3 years before the attack.
- Discord message cited by prosecutors: "You believe me when I promise I won't snitch on you, right?"
- Acting US Attorney Neil Floyd: Bryant "had the information and ability to alert law enforcement... but chose not to."
Ex-FBI analyst alleges Trump ordered a probe of LA-area anti-ICE protesters after watching a TikTok
THE HILLImmigration enforcementJill Fields, a former supervisory intelligence analyst in the FBI's Los Angeles office, says in a whistleblower complaint that Trump told FBI Director Kash Patel in February 2025 to investigate protesters in Alhambra, Calif., after seeing a TikTok of them using megaphones to warn neighbors that immigration agents were nearby. Alex Padilla (Sen-D California) released the complaint. The White House calls the allegations "false."
What else the complaint says
- Some agents on a new immigration squad were pulled off active cartel cases to do the work.
- Emil Bove, then the acting deputy attorney general, ordered a second probe, of protests outside federal buildings.
ICE officers now ask people they arrest whether they have ever voted illegally
THE WASHINGTON POSTImmigration enforcementDetainees who answer yes get a follow-up question: did they vote by mail or in person.
Trump approves Army firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, set for Dec. 3
CBS NEWSHasan killed 13 people and wounded 32 at Fort Hood in 2009, and his execution would be the first US military execution since 1961.
- Army rules say an execution must come 60 to 150 days after the president approves it.
- Hasan is one of 4 inmates on US military death row.
- Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell: "Judgement day for Hasan has finally come."
Christa Pike is conscious and speaking a week after Tennessee's failed execution
THE GUARDIANUpdatePike, 50, is in a Nashville hospital, still shackled to her bed with severe arm injuries, and her lawyers again asked Bill Lee (Gov-R Tennessee) to commute her death sentence.
Catch up
- Sept. 30 — A 2-1 6th Circuit panel halted Pike's execution about an hour before it began; the Supreme Court lifted that stay that evening, three liberal justices dissenting.
- Sept. 30 — After roughly an hour of IV attempts, Pike survived two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee then canceled its last execution of 2026.
- Oct. 3 — Pike was unconscious on a ventilator; her lawyers moved to preserve evidence, and Tennessee Republican lawmakers called for a review of the single-drug method.
- Oct. 4 — Corrections chief Frank Strada said he would step down, insisting staff followed protocol; a former U.S. attorney will run an independent review.
- Oct. 5 — Pike's lawyer asked Gov. Bill Lee to commute her sentence to life in prison.
4 earlier issues
- UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
- UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
- UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence
- UpdateTennessee corrections chief Frank Strada will step down after the failed Christa Pike execution
Key facts
- Pike survived 2 doses of pentobarbital and is now awake and speaking.
- ProPublica counts 3 botched Tennessee executions in 14 months, including Pike's.
Ongoing5
This story has run 6 times over 6 days, starting Oct 1.
- UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
- UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
- UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence
- UpdateTennessee corrections chief Frank Strada will step down after the failed Christa Pike execution
- UpdateChrista Pike's lawyer asks Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life
- UpdateChrista Pike is conscious and speaking a week after Tennessee's failed execution — this issue
White House: Trump's super PAC will pay only for future promo ads, not repay the $11 million taxpayers already spent
AXIOSUpdateA day after Trump said he and MAGA Inc. would pay for the "Patriotic Ads" that DHS had funded through a $20 million contract, the White House said on Tuesday, Oct. 6, that the pledge covers future ads only: "The President's Truth was not referring to reimbursement." Taxpayers have already paid for at least $11 million in airtime since September, per an AdImpact analysis for the AP.
The reaction
- Chuck Schumer (Sen-D New York) asked two government watchdogs to investigate and said he will file a Federal Election Commission complaint alleging illegal coordination.
- Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana): "If the Super PAC's funding them, that's good."
Analysts say Trump's red-diesel order will barely lower prices and may bring a tax bill later
CBS NEWSUpdateIran warTrump's order defers the 24.4-cent federal diesel tax only through the end of 2026, about 4% of today's $6.32 national average. State laws still bar red-dyed diesel on highways (GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan: "A presidential order can't override state tax law").
On Oct. 1, Ohio passed a gas-tax holiday as Iran-war prices climbed. Trump then signed an order letting any driver use tax-exempt red diesel, which skips the 24.4-cent federal road-fuel tax. He also directed the Transportation Department to work with states on waiving their own diesel taxes. Gas and diesel taxes are separate, and only Ohio, Georgia and Kentucky had suspended their diesel taxes.
Diesel prices (AAA)
- Now: $6.32 a gallon national average
- Before the Iran war: $3.76 a gallon
- Record: $6.53 a gallon, set in September
Trump announces $6.6 billion Anduril shipyard in Baltimore to build Virginia-class submarine parts
BREAKING DEFENSEThe Sparrows Point site, called Arsenal-2, is funded by $3.7 billion in Anduril capital and up to $2.9 billion in Navy purchases, and Anduril says production will not begin until 2030.
- Wes Moore (Gov-D Maryland) stayed away, saying he was blocked from speaking; the White House said he was "throwing a tantrum."
- The Navy gets about 1.3 Virginia-class subs a year against a goal of 2; an official estimated the site adds about 15% capacity.
- The site covers more than 2 million square feet and is expected to bring about 3,000 to 3,100 direct jobs.
Justice Samuel Alito, 76, says he will serve through June 2027, ruling out a lame-duck retirement
POLITICORetiring in the lame duck would have let Trump name a successor before a possibly Democratic Senate is seated, but Alito said, "I intend to stick around through this term. I made that decision many months ago."
Also from Alito
- Book: 'So Ordered: An Originalist's View of The Constitution, The Court and Our Country' says Obergefell (2015) was "perhaps the decisive point in our nation's turn against religious liberty."
- On Trump-administration rhetoric about the court, he told PBS NewsHour: "I personally am not pleased with that."
Ongoing14
This story has run 15 times over 42 days, starting Aug 26.
- USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
- Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
- UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
- UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
- Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
- UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
- Update3-0 First Circuit keeps Trump mail-ballot rule blocked as 7 Republican officials oppose pre-November start
- UpdateSupreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote
- UpdateMail ballots will move under pre-2026 rules on Nov. 3 as the administration stands down
- UpdateSupreme Court lets states resume checking voter rolls against Trump's expanded federal citizenship database while the case is appealed
- Supreme Court votes 6-3 to let Trump deport migrants to third countries without notice or a chance to raise torture fears
- Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearing
- Supreme Court opens its term Oct. 5 with 30 cases, after rulings against Trump on tariffs and more
- UpdateJustice Samuel Alito says a “concerted effort” is trying to intimidate the Supreme Court into deciding cases differently
- Justice Samuel Alito, 76, says he will serve through June 2027, ruling out a lame-duck retirement — this issue
Paramount closes $110 billion Warner Bros. Discovery deal; combined company, renamed Skydance, owns CNN and CBS
CBS NEWSTo end a lawsuit by 12 state attorneys general, the company agreed to an editorial-independence board for CNN and CBS News and to release 30 films a year for its first two years.
- Warner shareholders get $31 per share; the roughly $110 billion value includes debt.
- The company is targeting $6 billion in cost savings.
- Ellison and co-CEO Ynon Kreiz told staff integration will bring "difficult decisions that affect our workforce."
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 15 days, starting Sep 22.
- UpdateParamount settles with 12 states, clearing its $110 billion Warner Bros. Discovery takeover
- UpdateParamount settled suits with 12 states and writers to clear its Warner buyout
- Paramount closes $110 billion Warner Bros. Discovery deal; combined company, renamed Skydance, owns CNN and CBS — this issue
Cook moves Kansas Senate race to toss-up and shifts North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats
WASHINGTON EXAMINER2026 midtermsKansas, where Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) faces Adam Hamilton (D-KS), moves from Lean R to Toss Up, in a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932.
The other shifts
- North Carolina: Lean D → Likely D (Cook)
- New Hampshire: Toss Up → Lean D (Cook)
- Sabato's Crystal Ball separately moved Alaska and South Carolina toward Democrats
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 7 days, starting Sep 30.
- Republicans move Senate money to defend Texas and send Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slip
- Cook moves Kansas Senate race to toss-up and shifts North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats — this issue
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson clash on court picks, health care, ICE and tariffs in first Maine debate
NYTImmigration enforcementSusan Collins (Sen-R Maine), 73, is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, who became the nominee after Graham Platner withdrew.
The race
- Jackson is a former logger and former state lawmaker.
- Tariff exchange: Collins said she got "road salt removed from the Canada tariff list"; Jackson replied, "What about everything else? We can't eat road salt."
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 14 days, starting Sep 23.
- FBI sought a bribery probe touching Susan Collins before anti-corruption units were dismantled
- Navatek CEO told FBI agents Susan Collins promised $32 million in Navy contracts
- Susan Collins and Troy Jackson clash on court picks, health care, ICE and tariffs in first Maine debate — this issue
Majority Whip Tom Emmer says Republicans won't win all 13 seats they redrew mid-decade
AXIOSCook now projects that redistricting nets Republicans about four House seats, after Democratic counter-maps in California and Utah. Democrats need a net gain of three to win the House, and Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told Axios, "We're not gonna win all 13."
- Seats Republicans redrew in their favor: 13
- Cook's projected net GOP gain from redistricting: about 4
- Net seats Democrats need to flip the House: 3
Elections22 races
The midterms · 27 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.4pp gap / 0.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 93% | 92% | 63% | 62% |
| 6 days ago | 93% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 5 days ago | 94% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 4 days ago | 93% | 92% | 68% | 63% |
| 3 days ago | 93% | 92% | 66% | 64% |
| 2 days ago | 93% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| yesterday | 93% | 91% | 65% | 65% |
| today | 93% | 91% | 65% | 65% |
3 closest races
xGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rick Jackson 54% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$73.3K52%Kalshi637K contracts · 54%/55%52%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-1.5ppKeisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$84.2K48.5%Kalshi615K contracts · 46%/47%49.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi 7 days ago 52.0% 52.0% 48.5% 49.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 52.0% 48.5% 50.0% 5 days ago 52.5% 52.0% 46.0% 48.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 49.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 47.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 49.5% 47.0% yesterday 50.5% 54.0% 49.5% 48.0% today 50.5% 54.5% 49.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 55% · Joe Lombardo 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$187K48.5%Kalshi906K contracts · 54%/55%47.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+7.0ppJoe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$157K50.5%Kalshi379K contracts · 46%/47%52.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-6.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi 7 days ago 48.5% 47.0% 50.5% 52.0% 6 days ago 49.0% 47.0% 50.5% 54.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 47.0% 47.5% 53.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 47.0% 48.0% 52.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 49.0% 44.5% 52.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 48.0% 44.5% 53.0% yesterday 55.5% 52.0% 44.5% 48.0% today 55.5% 54.5% 44.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 55% · Josh Turek 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$344K58.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 54%/55%60.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$390K41.5%Kalshi2.4M contracts · 45%/46%42.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 41.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 60.0% 43.0% 42.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 43.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 56.0% 41.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 44.0% yesterday 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 43.0% today 57.5% 54.5% 42.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
sAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 74% · Dan Sullivan 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$699K72.5%Kalshi191K contracts · 76%/77%73.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$341K28.5%Kalshi161K contracts · 24%/25%28.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 28.0% 6 days ago 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 31.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 70.0% 27.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 27.5% 30.0% 3 days ago 73.5% 70.0% 27.5% 29.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% yesterday 73.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% today 73.5% 76.5% 27.5% 24.5% aaGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.70%, Kalshi 96.35%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.3%, Kalshi 3.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 96% · Mike Collins 3.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.3K97.3%Kalshi459K contracts · 96%/97%95.8%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.6ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$118K2.85%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 3.7%/3.9%4.60%venue gap1.7pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.30% 95.80% 2.85% 4.6% 6 days ago 97.15% 95.00% 2.65% 5.5% 5 days ago 97.20% 95.30% 2.80% 4.7% 4 days ago 97.15% 96.30% 2.95% 4.4% 3 days ago 96.20% 96.30% 3.30% 4.4% 2 days ago 96.70% 94.90% 3.40% 4.4% yesterday 96.70% 96.10% 3.30% 3.9% today 96.70% 96.35% 3.30% 3.8% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 57% · Susan Collins 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M56.5%Kalshi3.7M contracts · 57%/58%60.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$945K42.5%Kalshi4.0M contracts · 42%/43%40.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 60.0% 42.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 40.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 40.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 42.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% yesterday 57.5% 55.0% 42.5% 45.0% today 57.5% 57.5% 42.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 28.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 72% · Mike Rogers 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$766K71.5%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 71%/72%74.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$559K28.5%Kalshi3.1M contracts · 27%/29%27.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 71.5% 74.0% 28.5% 27% 6 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.5% 29% 5 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 27.5% 30% 4 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.0% 27% 3 days ago 73.5% 71.0% 26.5% 29% 2 days ago 72.5% 71.0% 27.5% 29% yesterday 73.5% 73.0% 27.5% 27% today 73.5% 71.5% 27.5% 28% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 72% · Dan Osborn 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$304K73.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 72%/73%73.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$147K25.5%Kalshi874K contracts · 27%/28%27.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 25.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 74.0% 72.0% 25.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.0% 27.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 26.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 71.5% 73.0% 28.5% 27.0% yesterday 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 29.0% today 71.5% 72.5% 28.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 89.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 89% · John E. Sununu 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$156K86.5%Kalshi557K contracts · 88%/90%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+3.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$159K13.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 10%/11%14.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 87% 13.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 87% 13.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 87% 13.5% 13.0% 4 days ago 86.5% 85% 14.0% 15.0% 3 days ago 87.0% 86% 13.5% 14.0% 2 days ago 89.5% 86% 10.5% 14.0% yesterday 89.5% 86% 10.5% 14.0% today 89.5% 89% 10.5% 10.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.2%, Kalshi 96.7%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.65%, Kalshi 3.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 97% · Michael Whatley 3.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$105K95.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 97%/97%94.6%venue gap0.9pp7-day move+0.7ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K4.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 3.5%/3.6%6.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.9ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% 94.6% 4.50% 6.00% 6 days ago 95.5% 94.1% 4.50% 6.50% 5 days ago 96.2% 94.1% 3.55% 6.30% 4 days ago 96.1% 95.0% 3.85% 4.80% 3 days ago 96.2% 95.2% 3.65% 4.90% 2 days ago 96.2% 95.3% 3.65% 5.30% yesterday 96.2% 97.0% 3.65% 3.50% today 96.2% 96.7% 3.65% 3.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 62% · Jon Husted 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$630K58.5%Kalshi3.1M contracts · 62%/63%61.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$432K41.5%Kalshi2.9M contracts · 37%/38%41.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 61.0% 41.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 38.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% 2 days ago 61.5% 64.0% 38.5% 37.0% yesterday 61.5% 64.0% 38.5% 36.0% today 61.5% 62.5% 38.5% 37.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 66% · Ken Paxton 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.1M61.5%Kalshi8.1M contracts · 66%/67%59.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+4.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M38.5%Kalshi11M contracts · 33%/34%41.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 38.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 38.5% 39.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 36.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 63.5% 64.0% 35.5% 38.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 65.0% 35.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% yesterday 65.5% 65.0% 35.5% 36.0% today 65.5% 66.5% 35.5% 33.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
aeAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after gaining about five points in six days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.0%, Kalshi 0.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 20% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$188K18%Kalshi58.3K contracts · 21%/22%—venue gap—7-day move+1.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$166K1.05%Kalshi246K contracts · 0.5%/0.9%—venue gap—7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 18.0% — 1.05% — 6 days ago 18.0% 14.0% 1.05% — 5 days ago 18.5% 18.0% 1.05% — 4 days ago 18.5% 16.0% 1.00% 0.9% 3 days ago 21.0% 21.0% 1.00% 0.6% 2 days ago 21.5% 20.0% 1.00% 0.6% yesterday 19.5% 22.0% 1.00% 0.5% today 19.5% 21.5% 1.00% 0.7% agArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.7K88.5%Kalshi349K contracts · 88%/89%89.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.5K10.5%Kalshi286K contracts · 11%/12%13.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13.0% 6 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12.0% 5 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12.0% 4 days ago 91.5% 89.0% 8.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 91.5% 88.0% 9.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 12.0% yesterday 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 13.0% today 90.5% 88.5% 9.5% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 77% · David Jolly 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$131K78.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 76%/77%78.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$144K21.5%Kalshi756K contracts · 23%/24%23.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 21.5% 23.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 78.0% 22.5% 24.0% 5 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 76.5% 77.0% 24.5% 23.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 23.5% 24.0% 2 days ago 76.5% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% yesterday 77.5% 75.0% 22.5% 24.0% today 77.5% 76.5% 22.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 87% · Zach Lahn 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$69.7K84.5%Kalshi451K contracts · 87%/88%85.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$73.0K14.5%Kalshi707K contracts · 12%/13%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.0% 17.0% 4 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 11.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 11.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 86.0% 14.5% 16.0% yesterday 85.5% 88.0% 14.5% 13.0% today 85.5% 87.5% 14.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.55%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 7.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 94% · John James 6.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$77.9K91.5%Kalshi81.1K contracts · 93%/94%91.8%venue gap0.3pp7-day move+3.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$167K8.5%Kalshi170K contracts · 6.1%/7.9%8.7%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.50% 91.80% 8.50% 8.7% 6 days ago 91.50% 92.80% 8.50% 9.9% 5 days ago 94.65% 91.80% 5.30% 8.6% 4 days ago 94.15% 92.60% 5.55% 6.9% 3 days ago 94.10% 93.20% 4.95% 7.3% 2 days ago 94.55% 93.30% 5.45% 6.9% yesterday 94.50% 92.90% 5.50% 7.8% today 94.50% 93.55% 5.50% 7.0% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.90%, Kalshi 95.25%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 3.50%, Kalshi 5.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 95% · Bruce Blakeman 5.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.4K95.5%Kalshi451K contracts · 95%/95%94.5%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.4ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$107K4.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 5.2%/5.3%5.6%venue gap1.1pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% 94.50% 4.50% 5.60% 6 days ago 95.5% 94.40% 4.50% 4.90% 5 days ago 95.5% 95.00% 4.50% 5.70% 4 days ago 95.5% 95.00% 4.00% 5.20% 3 days ago 96.1% 95.00% 3.95% 5.00% 2 days ago 96.2% 95.10% 3.45% 5.50% yesterday 95.9% 96.00% 3.45% 4.20% today 95.9% 95.25% 3.50% 5.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 67% · Vivek Ramaswamy 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$135K61.5%Kalshi922K contracts · 66%/67%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+6.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$152K36.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 35%/36%40.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 36.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 36.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 65.5% 62.0% 34.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 67.0% 62.0% 33.5% 38.0% 3 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 32.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 31.5% 33.0% yesterday 67.5% 64.0% 32.5% 35.0% today 67.5% 66.5% 32.5% 35.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.75%, Kalshi 97.70%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.65%, Kalshi 2.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 98% · Stacy Garrity 2.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.8K97.05%Kalshi106K contracts · 98%/98%97.70%venue gap0.6pp7-day move-0.3ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.5K2.6%Kalshi412K contracts · 2.1%/2.4%4.9%venue gap2.3pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.05% 97.7% 2.60% 4.90% 6 days ago 97.20% 97.3% 2.60% 2.70% 5 days ago 96.90% 97.4% 2.60% 3.70% 4 days ago 96.85% 97.4% 2.65% 2.70% 3 days ago 96.90% 97.7% 2.65% 3.50% 2 days ago 96.90% 97.8% 2.65% 2.20% yesterday 97.00% 97.4% 2.65% 2.40% today 96.75% 97.7% 2.65% 2.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about nine points.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 72.25%, Kalshi 70.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 71% · Gina Hinojosa 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$270K82.65%Kalshi525K contracts · 70%/71%79.00%venue gap3.6pp7-day move-10ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$201K17.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 29%/30%23.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move+10ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.65% 79.0% 17.5% 23.0% 6 days ago 82.55% 78.0% 17.5% 24.0% 5 days ago 74.15% 82.0% 24.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 73.85% 80.0% 26.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 72.95% 76.0% 27.5% 25.0% 2 days ago 72.35% 74.0% 27.5% 27.0% yesterday 72.25% 76.0% 27.5% 26.0% today 72.25% 70.5% 27.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 80% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$360K82.5%Kalshi497K contracts · 79%/80%84.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$345K17.5%Kalshi800K contracts · 20%/21%17.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 18.5% 19.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 18.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 80.5% 79.0% 18.5% 21.0% yesterday 80.5% 79.0% 18.5% 21.0% today 80.5% 79.5% 18.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 6, 9:10 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
Roughly a dozen were deported, mostly children; DHS says it is "NOT arresting U.S. citizens by mistake."
ProPublica, a nonprofit newsroom, built a case-by-case catalog of 506 US citizens whom immigration agents stopped, restrained or held since January 2025, the start of Trump's second term. Some were held at gunpoint.
The citizenship stops. More than 100 were held after agents questioned whether they were citizens, and nearly all of those were people of color.
The charges. Of the more than 300 accused of assaulting or obstructing agents, fewer than half were charged in federal court.
Who was held, and in what situation:
- Children and teens: at least 70
- Detained while recording agents: at least 63
- Held a day or more without a lawyer or family: 36
- Accused of assault or obstruction: 300+
Trump’s comments1
What Trump said today, from policy conditions to off-the-cuff remarks.
Trump, defending Iran war costs at a Nebraska rally, says “let ’em take out Los Angeles, let ’em take out San Diego”
At a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, on Monday, Oct. 5, Trump said of the Iran war: “They can take out a city. Let ’em take out Los Angeles, let ’em take out San Diego. This is a very small price to pay.” The crowd applauded. The White House says he meant U.S. cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran had not been stopped; California Gov. Gavin Newsom posted “TIME FOR THE 25TH!”