News news6 stories
Ongoing3 earlier updates23 days
This story has run 4 times over 23 days, starting Sep 16.
- Pentagon inspector general puts U.S. equipment losses from Iranian strikes at $3.7 billion
- UK police arrest five men suspected of preparing a terrorist act near base used for U.S. strikes on Iran
- Pentagon tells Central Command to ready new Iran strike options the White House wants usable before the Nov. 3 midterms
- UpdateTrump says the US will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms and keeps the naval blockade in force — this issue
His post came a day after reports that the Pentagon told Central Command to finish preparing major combat; Brent crude jumped 4.4% to $104.60 on those reports.
Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Thursday, Oct. 8, that the US will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The pledge. He called talks with Tehran "productive" and said the US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in force. Axios notes his past statements about Iran have not always matched what he later did.
The oil. US crude (WTI) settled at $92.19 after a 3.91% rise on the strike reports. AAA put gasoline at $4.36 a gallon, down from $4.41 a week earlier. Trump also claimed 22 million barrels moved through the Strait of Hormuz in one night, none to or from Iran; nobody has independently verified that figure. ([TS]Before the war the whole strait carried about 21 million barrels a day, per Kpler.)
Still open. An Israeli official told Axios that "after the midterms the chances of it happening increase significantly."
Catch up
- Sept. 14 — An Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying eight US Marines in the Strait of Hormuz; the Pentagon never announced it.
- Sept. 27 — Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz within seven days if the US ended its blockade; the WSJ said he told staff bombing was probable after the elections.
- Sept. 29 — Iran's UN delegation said it had no talks planned with the US and flew home; mediators kept working.
- Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled, and Trump denied aides' account that he had offered Iran sanctions relief.
- Oct. 1 — The Pentagon said the last US troops had left Iraq, ending the anti-ISIS mission.
- Oct. 2 — The Pentagon sent about 9,000 more sailors and Marines toward Iran; Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York.
- Oct. 7 — The Pentagon told Central Command to ready strike options usable before Nov. 3; a congressional report counted 81 US aircraft and drones lost or damaged, up from 42 in May.
What stays in place while the strike pledge holds
- More than 4,000 Marines and sailors were recently sent to the region aboard three warships led by USS Makin Island.
- Israel votes Oct. 27, a week before the US midterms, and Axios reports a renewed war could shape that election.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani says he will ask Trump to end all ICE enforcement in New York City; DHS has not said what led the officer to fire.
The shooting. About 4 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 8, ICE officers shot a man inside his car during an arrest operation in Marble Hill, a sliver of Manhattan on the Bronx side of the Harlem River. A 5-year-old in the back seat was not hurt. The man was conscious and being treated at a nearby hospital, NYPD said, and is expected to survive. NYPD officers were not on scene.
The response. DHS said an officer fired his weapon and listed the man's alleged criminal history, but did not say what prompted the shots. An FBI evidence team is assisting DHS investigators. Kathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) called for a full federal accounting: "New Yorkers deserve to know exactly what happened and why."
“Get ICE out of our neighborhoods. Get ICE out of our hospitals. Get ICE off our streets. Get ICE away from our children.”Mayor Zohran Mamdani, on X
Still open. What threat, if any, the officer faced before firing. No footage of the seconds before the shots has been released.
What can block a state case against the officer
- The Manhattan district attorney can bring state charges, but the officer can move the case to federal court and claim immunity if he honestly and reasonably believed firing was necessary.
- That defense has worked in New York before: in 2004 a federal appeals court upheld the dismissal of a state manslaughter indictment against a DEA agent over a fatal Brooklyn shooting.
- ICE body-camera footage is not guaranteed to be made public: an ICE committee reviews it, and the ICE director can withhold it.
Alabama, Florida and Georgia have declared states of emergency, and Florida faces its first hurricane landfall in two years.
Isaias became a Category 2 hurricane (sustained winds of 96–110 mph) on Thursday, Oct. 8, and is expected to strengthen before it reaches the Gulf Coast. Alabama, Florida and Georgia have declared states of emergency, and mandatory evacuations are in effect.
What next. Landfall is expected Friday night, Oct. 9. Florida officials are urging residents to get ready for the state's first hurricane in two years.
Where mandatory evacuation orders took effect Thursday, Oct. 8
- Worth knowingLiving outside Zones A and B does not exempt you here: mobile homes and low-lying areas are under the mandatory order wherever they are in these counties.
- Walton County, Fla.: Zones A, B and C, from noon
- Worth knowingLiving away from the barrier islands does not exempt you here: anyone in a mobile home or RV park in Franklin County is under the mandatory order.
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 8.
- Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages show
- UpdateDonor says Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle's $100,000 credit-card request was 'pay to play'; House Democrats request her records by Oct. 22 — this issue
Eric Deters says he never paid. Guilfoyle's attorney says the texts are not authentic. CBS reports White House officials were told they are.
Eric Deters is the Trump donor whose texts show Kimberly Guilfoyle asking him to pay $100,000 toward her American Express bill, with up to $1 million more from him if her efforts succeeded, per The Wall Street Journal. He told CBS on camera that the request was "pay to play." Guilfoyle is now the U.S. ambassador to Greece. Deters says he paid her $300,000 over the years for earlier events, compared with nothing on this request: "I didn't have $100,000 to spare or I actually would have been a dumbass enough to do it."
The texts. CBS reviewed a 292-page file Deters supplied. It reported that White House officials were told the messages are authentic. In one, Guilfoyle wrote: "What a nightmare you'll literally cost me my ambassadorship stop writing." Her attorney disputes that the messages are real.
The administration. In Athens, Secretary of State Marco Rubio repeatedly declined to discuss it. "It's not the gospel, it's not the gospel for me," he told reporters. Vice President JD Vance was asked about an ambassador seeking a debt payoff for access. "I don't know exactly who you're talking about," he said.
Congress. Robert Garcia (Rep-D California), the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, sent Guilfoyle a letter asking for her financial records. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) called the episode "at best horrible optics, and at worst, something that's worthy of a termination."
What next. Garcia's letter asks for the records by Thursday, Oct. 22. It is a request, not a subpoena, so she is not compelled to answer it.
Catch up
On July 3, 2025, Kimberly Guilfoyle was Trump's nominee for ambassador to Greece. That day she texted donor Eric Deters, "honey please I need you to get this done for me today," according to messages reported by The Wall Street Journal. She was asking him to pay down her American Express bill. Her confirmation hearing was six days later, on July 9. On Wednesday, Oct. 7, with Guilfoyle seated in front of him in Athens, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called her "a strong ambassador."
What Deters says he paid and pledged beyond the $100,000
- Deters pledged up to $1 million more if her efforts succeeded, per the Wall Street Journal
- Deters says he paid Guilfoyle $300,000 over the years for earlier events, separate from the $100,000 request
Hours later, Trump gave Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella the National Medal of Technology and Innovation.
Vice President JD Vance announced Thursday, Oct. 8, that eight companies are suspended from PERM. PERM is the Labor Department's labor-certification process, usually the first step toward an employer-sponsored green card. Worth knowingA PERM application already filed by one of these eight employers is not safe. Pending cases are halted too, not only new filings.
The targets. Microsoft and Adobe, plus outsourcing firms Cognizant, Infosys, Tata, Wipro, HCL and Capgemini.
The charge. Vance accused Microsoft of fraud. He said it laid off 6,000 U.S. workers last year while getting 6,300 H-1B visas and almost 3,000 green cards over the same period. BBC put the H-1B figure at 6,800 applications. Sonderling said Microsoft and Adobe have received about 230,000 H-1B approvals and about 100,000 permanent labor certifications since 2009.
“You cannot lay off American workers and then replace them with foreign indentured servants.”JD Vance
Microsoft's answer. It says 80% of its H-1B filings last fiscal year were extensions or status changes for people already on staff. It also says it pays them like other employees doing the same work. Immigration firm Ellis puts Microsoft's median H-1B salary at $155,000.
The wider push. Vance also named nine universities for a J-1 visa fraud probe. On Wednesday, Oct. 7, Homeland Security proposed a $70,000 fee per student in OPT, the program that lets foreign graduates work in the U.S. after school.
Still open. Vance set no end date for the freeze.
Red take
Microsoft earned this freeze. Vice President JD Vance says it cut 6,000 American jobs last year while it took in 6,300 H-1B visas and almost 3,000 green cards. The Labor Department's own watchdog already paused filings from Cognizant, another firm on the list, in September. Let these companies keep sponsoring while the probe runs, and every employer learns that swapping out Americans costs nothing.
Blue take
Freezing first and proving later punishes the wrong people. Microsoft says 80% of its H-1B filings last year were for workers already on its staff, and the Labor Department's 1977 rule allows pausing a suspect employer's filings, not refusing new ones. With no end date, those employees lose the first step toward an employer-sponsored green card, and any company a vice president names can be cut off before anyone proves fraud.
The Civil Rights Division is running the case instead of the DC U.S. Attorney's Office, an unusual choice that CBS says has not been explained.
The case. Justice Department prosecutors are presenting evidence to a grand jury in Washington, D.C. (a panel of citizens that decides whether there is enough evidence to bring charges). The question is whether Cassidy Hutchinson, a former aide to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, lied to the House Jan. 6 committee in June 2022. A DOJ spokesperson said the department "does not confirm or deny the existence of investigations, or the lack thereof."
The testimony. CBS reports it is unclear which of her answers prosecutors are examining. Her best-known claim, that Trump lunged at the steering wheel of his SUV on Jan. 6, 2021, was secondhand, and other witnesses have disputed it.
What next. Prosecutors plan to bring more evidence and witnesses before the grand jury later in October 2026, Punchbowl News reported.
How three witnesses' accounts cut against the steering-wheel story
- The SUV driver told the committee in a Nov. 7, 2022 interview that Trump never grabbed the wheel and never lunged into the front seat.
- Ornato said in his Nov. 29, 2022 interview that he first heard the story from her public testimony and did not believe he had told it to her.
- Robert Engel, head of Trump's Secret Service detail, did not recall Trump reaching for him or being in the room when Ornato spoke to Hutchinson.
Red take
A grand jury should test Cassidy Hutchinson's sworn story, because her own source disowns it. Hutchinson, a former aide to Trump's chief of staff, said aide Tony Ornato told her Trump lunged at the wheel. Ornato told the committee on Nov. 29, 2022 that he first heard it from her public testimony. If that goes untested, any witness can put an invented scene about a president into the record at no cost.
Blue take
Prosecuting Cassidy Hutchinson, a former aide to Trump's chief of staff, turns a memory dispute into a crime. Tony Ornato, the aide she named, said only that he "did not believe he had told it to her", which is doubt, not the knowing lie the law requires. The Civil Rights Division runs the case, a choice CBS says has not been explained. Every aide asked to testify about a president now learns that honest memory can bring an indictment.
Quick bites15
Judge extends block on White House ban of CNN, MS NOW and Politico through Tuesday
CBS NEWSUpdateJudge Timothy Kelly, a Trump appointee, extended his order by two business days, through Tuesday. He pressed the Justice Department on why its national-security reason differs from the one Trump gave. He said he will likely rule on a longer-term order by then, outlets reported.
Catch up
- Sept. 18 — Trump banned CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House, cutting off 78 credentialed journalists.
- Sept. 22–23 — The outlets sued Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and two advisers; five TV networks suspended pool coverage.
- Sept. 24–25 — Judge Kelly issued a 14-day restraining order, and the White House let the outlets' reporters back in.
- Sept. 27 — The White House left CNN off Air Force One, giving its seat to Real America's Voice.
- Sept. 28–30 — Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the ban; the outlets asked Kelly to keep it blocked until the case ends.
- Oct. 6 — The White House barred Politico, the assigned print pooler, from Air Force One on Trump's Nebraska trip.
5 earlier issues
- UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico sue Trump over White House ban; TV pool suspends coverage
- UpdateFive television networks suspend White House pool coverage as Trump launches 24/7 streaming feed
- UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico remain barred from White House after Judge Kelly ends hearing without ruling
- White House readmits CNN, MS NOW and Politico reporters after court order
- Attorney General Todd Blanche defends the White House ban on 78 journalists; a judge has it on hold until Oct. 8
From Thursday's hearing
- Kelly called it 'unusual' that the decision maker gave reasons 'x and y' while the government now says 'it's z.'
- DOJ's Michael Velchik: 'certainly CNN has been on notice for years that the president is concerned.'
- Outlets' lawyer Ted Boutrous: losing a pass because Trump calls coverage false is 'a very, very dangerous, chilling doctrine.'
Ongoing6
This story has run 7 times over 17 days, starting Sep 22.
- UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico sue Trump over White House ban; TV pool suspends coverage
- UpdateFive television networks suspend White House pool coverage as Trump launches 24/7 streaming feed
- UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico remain barred from White House after Judge Kelly ends hearing without ruling
- White House readmits CNN, MS NOW and Politico reporters after court order
- Attorney General Todd Blanche defends the White House ban on 78 journalists; a judge has it on hold until Oct. 8
- UpdateCNN, Politico and MS NOW ask judge to keep White House ban blocked until case ends
- UpdateJudge extends block on White House ban of CNN, MS NOW and Politico through Tuesday — this issue
Maduro and wife Cilia Flores charged with conspiring to torture opponents and over a dozen Americans
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateThe indictment says Maduro personally approved torture methods, including electric shock, suffocation and rape. It says Flores helped build the system and ordered specific people tortured.
Catch up
Oct. 8 — Prosecutors were reported to be preparing charges that Maduro and Flores authorized the torture of Americans in Venezuelan prisons. The charges could come as soon as Flores's bond hearing in Manhattan.
- Torture count carries up to 20 years in prison, or life if a death resulted (Fox News).
- Flores also faces a narcoterrorism count; trial is set for June 2027 (ABC News, BBC News).
- Flores's lawyers sought house arrest on heart-health grounds, saying she has lost 25 pounds in jail (The Guardian).
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 8.
- Prosecutors expected to charge Maduro and wife with authorizing torture of Americans in Venezuelan prisons
- UpdateMaduro and wife Cilia Flores charged with conspiring to torture opponents and over a dozen Americans — this issue
Roberts pauses an order forcing the FCC to rule by Friday on Democrats' challenge to cheap party ad rates
WASHINGTON EXAMINERCourts and the adminis…Chief Justice John Roberts issued the administrative stay after DOJ and the GOP campaign committees filed emergency petitions; the rule helps Republicans, who lead in party-committee cash, while Democrats lead in candidate cash.
- Last month the Supreme Court voted 8-1 that the 4th Circuit had acted too early in this case.
- Democratic candidates must respond by 5 p.m. Saturday.
- Solicitor General D. John Sauer called the 4th Circuit order a "flagrant abuse" and an effort to get around an earlier Supreme Court stay.
Pentagon will livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Hasan's 1 p.m. Dec. 3 execution at Fort Hood will be public, and a Pentagon official said it will be livestreamed; the US has not held a public execution since 1936, and Army regulations limit who may witness one.
Catch up
Army Maj. Nidal Hasan killed 13 people and wounded 32 at Fort Hood on Nov. 5, 2009. On Oct. 7, Trump approved Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's recommendation that the Army execute him by firing squad on Dec. 3.
How rare this is
- Last US military execution: 1961, Pvt. John Bennett, hanged.
- Last US military firing-squad execution: 1945, Pvt. Eddie Slovik, for desertion.
- Hasan's lawyer, John Galligan, cited the Army's witness limits and called the plan 'political theater.'
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Oct 7.
- Trump approves Army firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, set for Dec. 3
- UpdatePentagon will livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution — this issue
Christa Pike walks with help after Tennessee's failed execution; lawyers say her memory is impaired
ABC NEWSUpdatePike, 50, is walking around her hospital room with assistance after surviving two pentobarbital doses on Sept. 30, but her lawyers say her concentration and memory are impaired and burns on her arms make it hard to hold a pen.
How we got here
- Sept. 30 — A 2-1 6th Circuit panel halted Pike's execution about an hour before it began; the Supreme Court lifted the stay that evening, three liberals dissenting.
- Sept. 30 — Pike, 50, survived two pentobarbital doses after roughly an hour of IV attempts; Tennessee called off its last execution of 2026.
- Oct. 3 — Pike lay unconscious on a ventilator; her lawyers moved to preserve evidence, and Republican lawmakers sought a review of the single-drug method.
- Oct. 4 — Corrections chief Frank Strada said he would step down but insisted protocol was followed; a former U.S. attorney will run an independent review.
- Oct. 5 — Pike's lawyer asked Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life.
- Oct. 7 — Pike was conscious and speaking; a judge ordered Tennessee to preserve all execution evidence, and her lawyers reported pneumonia, a blood clot and arms she could not move.
On the record:
- Attorney Stephen Ferrell: "It's that sort of starting a sentence and losing track of where she was going."
ICE arrested over 8,500 children in Trump's second term, more than double last year's pace
THE MARSHALL PROJECTImmigration enforcementSome of those children were held for short stints in hotels and office hold rooms that lawyers call 'black boxes' because they can't find them.
The data fight:
- DHS says the data is inaccurate, though ICE itself supplied it, and DHS has offered no evidence.
Trump administration weighs deporting migrants to Central and South America by ship
THE NEW YORK TIMESImmigration enforcementTwo US officials told the Times the ships under consideration include a 500-foot training vessel and ferries, and each voyage could take days and cost millions of dollars.
Army report blames systemic failures, two broken radio transmissions for 2025 DC crash that killed 67
PBS NEWSHOURThe Army finished the report in May and released it Thursday after months of pressure from victims' families, who say the partly redacted report falls short because it does not name who was responsible.
What the report found
- Other factors cited: air traffic control, helicopter routes, training and safety culture
- Helicopter and airliner routes were separated by as little as 75 feet vertically (Washington Examiner)
- Tim Lilley, father of first officer Sam Lilley: the Army owes families "a full accounting" of "who was responsible"
Trump bought $1 million to $5 million in SpaceX bonds days before his space policy order
CNNTrump's latest financial disclosure lists SpaceX debt he bought at over $1 million and up to $5 million; the form gives a range, not an exact amount. His ally Elon Musk runs the company. His accounts bought the notes on Aug. 18; on Aug. 20 he signed a new national space transportation policy that calls for more than 1,000 U.S. launches and reentries a year by 2030 and opens government launch sites to commercial companies.
OpenAI bans ChatGPT accounts behind Russian and Iranian covert influence operations
WASHINGTON EXAMINERIran warOpenAI has banned ChatGPT accounts behind two covert influence operations, one linked to Russia and one to Iran, its latest safety report says. The Iran-linked 'Bogus Bylines' effort used fake journalist personas to pitch stories about the US-Iran war.
The two operations
- Russia-linked: ran a fake think tank aimed at Latin America
- Iran-linked: 'Bogus Bylines' fake journalist personas pitching US-Iran war stories (the Washington Examiner counts seven; no second outlet has confirmed that number)
Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) says Pentagon is hiding Iran war damage and a deal isn't imminent
THE GUARDIANIran warMurphy said Iran's March drone strike on the US embassy in Riyadh did far more damage than was disclosed. He said it would have killed many Americans in daytime. After meeting Qatari mediators, he said a US-Iran deal "does not sound imminent." He said a deal would likely look like the failed June ceasefire.
BackgroundWhat Murphy says he saw
- Strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas hub eliminated 17% of Qatar's exports, likely for about three years.
- He saw 1 LNG tanker in port at Ras Laffan, versus the usual 6.
HHS opens a vaccine-injury clinic at NIH and moves to pay doctors to file VAERS reports
REUTERSThe clinic will evaluate and study people who report health problems after vaccination, but a report to VAERS, the federal vaccine-safety database, does not by itself show that a vaccine caused an injury.
Where the doctor payments stand
- Reuters says HHS is moving to have CMS reimburse doctors for filing VAERS reports.
- The Washington Examiner says the payments were announced as part of the rollout.
- The Hill says the payments are still under consideration.
Pew puts Trump's approval at 30%, his second-term low, with Democrats up 8 on the House ballot
PEW RESEARCH CENTERIran warIn the Sept. 28–Oct. 4 survey of 5,062 adults, 65% disapprove of his handling of Iran, and 74% are very concerned about gas prices, up from 43% in January.
- 44% of voters see their House vote as a vote against Trump; 19% see it as a vote for him.
- Democratic supporters are 17 points more likely than Republicans to be 'extremely motivated' to vote.
- 21% rate the economy excellent or good, down from 28% at the start of the year.
Michigan Senate candidates El-Sayed and Rogers trade personal attacks in their first debate
CNNAbdul El-Sayed (D-MI) and Mike Rogers (R-MI) clashed over Israel, the Iran war and health care, a day after Trump called El-Sayed "Mohammed" and a "Terrorist Sympathizer" on Truth Social.
Where the race stands
- El-Sayed led by 4.1 points in the Decision Desk HQ Michigan polling average before the debate (The Hill).
- El-Sayed is being outspent on ads by nearly 2-to-1 (PBS NewsHour).
- Rogers lost the 2024 Michigan Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by just under 20,000 votes (PBS NewsHour).
Ongoing3
This story has run 4 times over 16 days, starting Sep 23.
- Kamala Harris campaigns in Detroit to shore up Black voters for Abdul El-Sayed
- Obama will campaign in Detroit on Oct. 24 for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)
- Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers says in NRSC co-funded ad to end Canada tariff war now
- Michigan Senate candidates El-Sayed and Rogers trade personal attacks in their first debate — this issue
Arizona Democrat challenging Rep. Abe Hamadeh says she was raped while fixing a campaign sign
CBS NEWSBernadette Greene-Placentia (D-AZ), 52, says two men attacked her around 2 a.m. on Aug. 14 in Sun City, one knocking her unconscious and raping her, and she reported it to the sheriff's office on Aug. 31.
Where it stands
- She has given differing accounts of whether an attacker called her a 'Democratic b----.'
- Abe Hamadeh (Rep-R Arizona) urged authorities to investigate 'thoroughly, including finding all possible camera footage.'
- She is running in Arizona's 8th District, which takes in Sun City.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 25 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 91%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 63%, Kalshi 62%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.4pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 93% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 6 days ago | 94% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 5 days ago | 93% | 92% | 68% | 64% |
| 4 days ago | 93% | 92% | 66% | 63% |
| 3 days ago | 93% | 91% | 65% | 65% |
| 2 days ago | 92% | 91% | 65% | 64% |
| yesterday | 91% | 90% | 63% | 63% |
| today | 91% | 90% | 63% | 62% |
3 closest races
yNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 52% · Joe Lombardo 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$195K53.5%Kalshi924K contracts · 51%/52%47.0%venue gap6.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJoe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$161K47.5%Kalshi393K contracts · 47%/48%53.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 47.0% 47.5% 53.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 47.0% 48.0% 52.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 49.0% 44.5% 52.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 48.0% 44.5% 53.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 43.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% yesterday 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 47.0% today 54.5% 51.5% 45.5% 47.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rick Jackson 55% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$77.2K52.5%Kalshi675K contracts · 55%/56%52.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppKeisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$107K46%Kalshi623K contracts · 44%/45%48%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi 7 days ago 52.5% 52.0% 46.0% 48.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 49.0% 5 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 47.5% 48.0% 4 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 49.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 54.0% 47.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 55.0% 47.5% 47.0% yesterday 51.5% 55.0% 47.5% 46.0% today 51.5% 55.5% 47.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 56% · Josh Turek 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$358K56.5%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 56%/57%58.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$442K43.5%Kalshi2.4M contracts · 43%/44%42.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 43.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 57.5% 56.0% 41.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 55.0% 44.5% 46.0% yesterday 55.5% 55.0% 44.5% 45.0% today 55.5% 56.5% 44.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
sAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 74% · Dan Sullivan 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$731K72.5%Kalshi196K contracts · 76%/77%70.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$357K27.5%Kalshi170K contracts · 23%/24%29.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 70.0% 27.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 27.5% 30.0% 5 days ago 73.5% 70.0% 27.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 77.0% 26.5% 25.0% yesterday 73.5% 77.0% 26.5% 24.0% today 73.5% 76.5% 26.5% 23.5% aaGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.75%, Kalshi 95.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.30%, Kalshi 4.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 96% · Mike Collins 4.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.7K97.15%Kalshi486K contracts · 95%/96%95.30%venue gap1.9pp7-day move-0.4ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$120K2.8%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 4.0%/4.7%4.7%venue gap1.9pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.15% 95.30% 2.80% 4.70% 6 days ago 97.20% 96.30% 2.95% 4.40% 5 days ago 97.15% 96.30% 3.30% 4.40% 4 days ago 96.20% 94.90% 3.40% 4.40% 3 days ago 96.70% 96.10% 3.20% 3.90% 2 days ago 96.75% 96.10% 3.30% 3.90% yesterday 96.75% 95.80% 3.30% 3.70% today 96.75% 95.65% 3.30% 4.35% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 57% · Susan Collins 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M59.5%Kalshi4.1M contracts · 56%/57%58.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$956K40.5%Kalshi4.2M contracts · 43%/44%41.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 40.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 42.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 42.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 43.5% 43.0% yesterday 57.5% 58.0% 42.5% 44.0% today 57.5% 56.5% 42.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 70% · Mike Rogers 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$826K72.5%Kalshi2.3M contracts · 69%/70%72.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$595K27.5%Kalshi3.4M contracts · 30%/32%30.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 27.5% 30% 6 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.0% 27% 5 days ago 73.5% 71.0% 26.5% 29% 4 days ago 72.5% 71.0% 27.5% 29% 3 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 27% 2 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 29.5% 29% yesterday 71.5% 71.0% 29.5% 31% today 71.5% 69.5% 29.5% 31% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 73% · Dan Osborn 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$307K72.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 73%/74%73.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$154K27%Kalshi881K contracts · 27%/28%27%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.0% 27.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% 5 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 26.5% 28.0% 4 days ago 71.5% 73.0% 28.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 29.0% 2 days ago 71.5% 73.0% 28.5% 27.0% yesterday 71.5% 74.0% 28.5% 28.0% today 71.5% 73.5% 28.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 89%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 89% · John E. Sununu 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$159K—Kalshi569K contracts · 88%/90%87%venue gap—7-day move+2.5ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$161K13.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 10%/11%13.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago — 87% 13.5% 13.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 85% 14.0% 15.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 86% 13.5% 14.0% 4 days ago 86.5% 86% 10.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 87.0% 86% 10.5% 14.0% 2 days ago 89.5% 90% 11.0% 11.0% yesterday 89.0% 88% 11.0% 11.0% today 89.0% 89% 11.0% 10.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.05%, Kalshi 96.85%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.7%, Kalshi 3.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 97% · Michael Whatley 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$106K96.2%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 97%/97%94.1%venue gap2.1pp7-day move-0.1ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K3.55%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 2.9%/3.1%6.30%venue gap2.8pp7-day move+0.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.20% 94.10% 3.55% 6.3% 6 days ago 96.10% 95.00% 3.85% 4.8% 5 days ago 96.20% 95.20% 3.65% 4.9% 4 days ago 96.20% 95.30% 3.65% 5.3% 3 days ago 96.30% 97.00% 3.65% 3.5% 2 days ago 96.30% 96.50% 3.75% 3.6% yesterday 96.05% 96.80% 3.70% 2.8% today 96.05% 96.85% 3.70% 3.0% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 62% · Jon Husted 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$681K60.5%Kalshi3.2M contracts · 61%/62%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$447K39.5%Kalshi3.2M contracts · 39%/40%40.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 38.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 61.5% 64.0% 38.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 64.0% 38.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% yesterday 62.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% today 62.5% 61.5% 38.5% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 65% · Ken Paxton 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.3M64.5%Kalshi8.7M contracts · 65%/66%63.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.4M36.5%Kalshi13M contracts · 36%/37%37.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 36.5% 37.0% 6 days ago 63.5% 64.0% 35.5% 38.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 65.0% 35.5% 36.0% 4 days ago 65.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 33.5% 36.0% 2 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 35.0% yesterday 62.5% 67.0% 36.5% 35.0% today 63.5% 65.5% 36.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
aeAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after gaining about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.15%, Kalshi 0.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 20% · Tom Begich 0.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$188K18.5%Kalshi58.9K contracts · 19%/21%14.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$166K1.05%Kalshi246K contracts · 0.4%/0.9%—venue gap—7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 18.5% 14% 1.05% — 6 days ago 18.5% 18% 1.00% — 5 days ago 21.0% 16% 1.00% — 4 days ago 21.5% 21% 1.00% — 3 days ago 19.5% 20% 1.05% 0.60% 2 days ago 19.5% 22% 1.15% 0.50% yesterday 19.5% 22% 1.15% 0.50% today 19.5% 20% 1.15% 0.65% agArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.0K88.5%Kalshi350K contracts · 87%/88%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.8K10.5%Kalshi300K contracts · 11%/12%12.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12.0% 6 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 8.5% 13.0% 5 days ago 91.5% 88.0% 9.5% 13.0% 4 days ago 91.5% 88.0% 9.5% 12.0% 3 days ago 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 12.0% yesterday 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 11.0% today 90.5% 87.5% 9.5% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 78% · David Jolly 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$131K77.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 77%/78%77.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$148K22.5%Kalshi828K contracts · 23%/24%24.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 76.5% 77.0% 24.5% 23.0% 5 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 23.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 76.5% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% 3 days ago 77.5% 75.0% 21.5% 24.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 23.0% yesterday 77.5% 78.0% 22.5% 24.0% today 77.5% 77.5% 22.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 87% · Zach Lahn 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$72.8K84.5%Kalshi481K contracts · 87%/88%85.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$77.5K14%Kalshi818K contracts · 12%/13%17%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.0% 17.0% 6 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 11.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 11.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 85.5% 86.0% 14.5% 16.0% 3 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 14.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 12.5% 13.0% yesterday 86.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13.0% today 86.5% 87.5% 12.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.35%, Kalshi 92.10%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.40%, Kalshi 7.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 93% · John James 7.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.3K94.65%Kalshi83.4K contracts · 92%/93%91.80%venue gap2.8pp7-day move-1.3ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$168K5.3%Kalshi173K contracts · 7.2%/8.3%8.6%venue gap3.3pp7-day move+1.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.65% 91.8% 5.30% 8.60% 6 days ago 94.15% 92.6% 5.55% 6.90% 5 days ago 94.10% 93.2% 4.95% 7.30% 4 days ago 94.55% 93.3% 5.45% 6.90% 3 days ago 93.40% 92.9% 6.45% 7.80% 2 days ago 93.25% 93.4% 6.35% 8.40% yesterday 93.35% 92.5% 6.40% 8.10% today 93.35% 92.1% 6.40% 7.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.75%, Kalshi 95.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.45%, Kalshi 5.30%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 95% · Bruce Blakeman 5.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.5K95.5%Kalshi476K contracts · 95%/95%95.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.3ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K4.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 5.0%/5.6%5.7%venue gap1.2pp7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% 95.00% 4.50% 5.7% 6 days ago 95.50% 95.00% 4.00% 5.2% 5 days ago 96.10% 95.00% 3.95% 5.0% 4 days ago 96.20% 95.10% 3.45% 5.5% 3 days ago 96.05% 96.00% 3.65% 4.2% 2 days ago 95.65% 95.10% 4.50% 5.2% yesterday 95.75% 95.10% 4.45% 5.0% today 95.75% 95.15% 4.45% 5.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about eight points.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 70% · Vivek Ramaswamy 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$138K65.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 70%/71%62.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+3.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$161K36.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 28%/29%38.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-6.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.5% 62.0% 36.5% 38.0% 6 days ago 67.0% 62.0% 34.5% 38.0% 5 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 33.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 32.5% 33.0% 3 days ago 66.5% 64.0% 31.5% 35.0% 2 days ago 68.5% 66.0% 32.5% 36.0% yesterday 68.5% 67.0% 32.5% 34.0% today 68.5% 70.5% 30.5% 28.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.75%, Kalshi 97.65%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.50%, Kalshi 2.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 98% · Stacy Garrity 2.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$8.4K97.2%Kalshi165K contracts · 98%/98%97.4%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-0.4ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.5K2.6%Kalshi416K contracts · 2.2%/2.9%2.7%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.20% 97.40% 2.60% 2.70% 6 days ago 96.90% 97.40% 2.65% 3.70% 5 days ago 96.85% 97.70% 2.65% 2.70% 4 days ago 96.90% 97.80% 2.65% 3.50% 3 days ago 96.90% 97.40% 2.70% 2.20% 2 days ago 96.85% 97.60% 2.55% 2.40% yesterday 96.75% 97.70% 2.50% 2.80% today 96.75% 97.65% 2.50% 2.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 73.7%, Kalshi 75.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 75% · Gina Hinojosa 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$278K74.15%Kalshi597K contracts · 75%/76%82.00%venue gap7.8pp7-day move-0.5ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$207K24.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 25%/26%21.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.15% 82.0% 24.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 73.85% 80.0% 26.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 72.95% 76.0% 27.5% 25.0% 4 days ago 72.35% 74.0% 27.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 72.25% 76.0% 26.5% 26.0% 2 days ago 73.70% 72.0% 26.0% 30.0% yesterday 73.70% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% today 73.70% 75.5% 25.5% 25.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$364K81.5%Kalshi499K contracts · 80%/81%81.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$345K18.5%Kalshi806K contracts · 19%/20%20.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 18.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 79.0% 18.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 79.0% 18.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 81.0% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% yesterday 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 21.0% today 81.5% 80.5% 18.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 8, 9:51 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.