The moves include seats held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Rep-R Iowa), Zach Nunn (Rep-R Iowa), Scott Perry (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania), and would put Democrats at 224–234 seats.
Medium
Cook projects a Democratic House gain of 9–19 seats.
This is a forecast that the story explicitly attributes to Cook Political Report. Several outlets confirm Cook made the projection, including The Hill, Axios, CBS and The Washington Post, but it is still a forecast.
Medium
The moves would put Democrats at 224–234 seats.
This is a derived projection range. The Hill reports Cook's resulting seat totals, and the range matches a 215-seat baseline plus 9–19. However, this sentence in the story does not explicitly assign the range to Cook.
Low
Democrats need about 20% of toss-ups for a majority.
This is the desk's own arithmetic. The story does not give the post-shift count of Democratic-favored seats, and no listed source supports the 20% figure.
Medium
Five races moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
Supported only by a single lesser-known aggregator (europesays.com). The story itself names no source.