Prices rose 1.3% from August alone; forecasters had expected 0.6%.
The prices businesses charge for goods and services (the producer price index, a monthly Labor Department survey that tends to reach store shelves later) rose 6.3% in the year to September, up from 5.6% in August. Fuel made up half the increase, and diesel-driven shipping costs are starting to push up food. "This is how increases in energy prices 'bleed through' to prices of core goods," said Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics.
0.7% rise from August in core producer prices, which leave out food and energy; they are up 5% on the year, per NBC News.
3.4% monthly jump in transportation and warehousing prices, which are up 16% on the year.
1.2% rise in wholesale food prices from August, though they are unchanged from a year earlier.
$6.32 a gallon for diesel on Thursday, Oct. 15, against $3.66 a year earlier, per AAA.
0.8% growth in September retail sales, against 0.4% expected, per Axios.
What next. The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27–28 to decide whether to raise rates again.
Catch up
- Sept. 14 — Trump threatened trade cutoffs unless the Fed cut rates; the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014%, highest since Oct. 2023.
- Sept. 16 — The Fed raised its rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since July 2023; Trump demanded "1%, or less."
- Sept. 22–24 — Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee called the path to 2% "painful"; Fed Governor Michael Barr said more hikes are likely.
- Oct. 1 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below forecasts, cutting October hike odds to 35%.
- Oct. 8 — Fed minutes showed 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year.
- Oct. 10 — Trump set a Nov. 5 White House hearing on whether to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
- Oct. 14 — Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September; October hike odds jumped to 47% from 22.1%.
- Goods and services one step from final sale rose 8% in the year to September, which economist Ernie Tedeschi calls a non-pandemic record.
12 earlier issues
- August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
- UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
- Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
- UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
- Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
- UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
- Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook