The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, moved 11 House races toward Democrats on Friday, Oct. 16, a week after shifting 18, per Newsmax. Nine of the 11 are Republican-held or open seats, and most still favor the GOP. Cook says Republicans' troubles are sharpest in Midwestern red states, where voters are frustrated with how both federal and state governments have handled the economy. For scale: Cook's Oct. 9 ratings had 21 Toss Ups and 213 seats in Democratic columns, five short of a 218-seat majority, per Votendi.
The 11 moves
- To Toss Up: Montana's open 1st District, which Trump won by 12 points in 2024; Republican Aaron Flint faces Democrat Sam Forstag.
- Likely to Lean Republican: Brad Finstad (Rep-R Minnesota), Mike Turner (Rep-R Ohio), Mike Carey (Rep-R Ohio), and the open New York 21st and South Carolina 1st.
- Solid to Likely Republican: Derek Schmidt (Rep-R Kansas), Mike Flood (Rep-R Nebraska) and Florida's open 16th.
- Better for Democratic incumbents: Jared Moskowitz (Rep-D Florida) and Greg Landsman (Rep-D Ohio).