A CBS News/YouGov poll of Texas voters taken Oct. 8-16 has Democrat James Talarico (St Rep-D Texas) at 51% and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 49% among likely voters, inside the poll's ±3.5-point margin of error (±3.4 for its 1,492 registered voters). Cost of living is the top issue, named by 56% of likely voters, and those voters back Talarico 65%-35%, per CBS poll graphics reported by the Texas Gazette. CBS says Talarico also leads on perceived character, while Paxton benefits from the state's Republican lean and from stronger Texas support for the Trump administration's deportation program than in CBS's latest national poll; CBS's write-up gives no figure for that gap.
Ongoing2 earlier updates9 days
This story has run 3 times over 9 days, starting Oct 10.
- Talarico returns to Texas Senate trail after flu absence; Trump says Paxton should debate him
- Ohio mental-health center denies treating James Talarico; NYT images place him at home in Austin
- CBS poll finds Texas Senate race between Talarico and Paxton essentially tied — this issue
What we’re less sure of3 of 5 claims
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Cost of living is Texas voters' top issue, and Talarico leads among voters hurt by higher prices.
This is plausible as a poll finding, but the bullet attributes it to no poll or outlet. It rests on CBS reporting only through the SOURCES list.
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Talarico leads on perceived character.
This is presumably a CBS poll attribute question, but the story gives no explicit attribution.
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Paxton leans on the state's GOP tilt.
Texas's Republican lean is well supported by historical Senate margins (1988–2024 in SOURCES). Framing it as Paxton's main source of strength is unattributed desk interpretation.